PBJFanatic
Sophomore
- Joined
- Nov 24, 2018
- Messages
- 1,438
Current situation
Here are the remaining games on the calendar for Miami, plus estimated win probabilities from the ESPN Matchup Predictor (or close approximation):
0.967 × 0.909 × 0.891 × 0.721 ≈ 56.5% chance that Miami wins all four remaining games (wins out).
What if Miami wins out?
If Miami closes the season by winning all remaining games, the result would likely be:
The playoff picture is somewhat more complex:
- Miami entered the 2025 season with high hopes and under head coach Mario Cristobal.
- As of the recent loss (at SMU Mustangs), Miami’s overall record sits at 6-2, with a conference (ACC) record of 2-2. (The exact regular season record may vary slightly depending on one or two recent games, but this is the context).
- That loss to SMU raises the stakes: they now have less margin for error if they want to compete for the ACC title game berth and a CFP berth.
Here are the remaining games on the calendar for Miami, plus estimated win probabilities from the ESPN Matchup Predictor (or close approximation):
- vs Syracuse Orange (Nov 8, at home) → ≈ 96.7% (very strong favorite)
- vs NC State Wolfpack (Nov 15, at home) → ≈ 90.9%
- at Virginia Tech Hokies (Nov 22, road) → ≈ 89.1%
- at Pittsburgh Panthers (Nov 29, road) → ≈ 72.1%
0.967 × 0.909 × 0.891 × 0.721 ≈ 56.5% chance that Miami wins all four remaining games (wins out).
What if Miami wins out?
If Miami closes the season by winning all remaining games, the result would likely be:
- Final record ≈ 10-2 overall, with a conference mark of ~6-2 ACC (assuming they’re currently 2-2 in ACC and those four remaining include ACC games, which they do).
- That puts Miami in very strong position to earn one of the top two spots in the ACC standings (which qualify for the ACC Championship Game). The ACC as of now uses a divisionless format where the two teams with the best conference winning percentage go to the title game.
- With an ACC title game berth, if they win that game, they would become the ACC champion — which has significant implications for the CFP (see next section).
- With any additional loss (beyond the one they already have), their margin for error shrinks.
- Other ACC teams could tie or exceed Miami’s conference win-percentage. In that case, tiebreaker rules come into play for who gets into the ACC title game. The rules include head-to-head record, record versus common opponents, record versus highest finished common opponent, etc.
- So even if Miami finishes say 9-3 (5-3 ACC) or 8-4 (4-4 ACC), depending on other teams’ records and tiebreakers, they may not make the ACC Championship Game. That would also hurt their chances for CFP selection significantly.
- As stated, the ACC will invite the two teams with the best conference records into the title game.
- Miami winning out (6-2) gives them a high likelihood to finish among the top two.
- However, other ACC teams (e.g., SMU, Clemson, Louisville, etc) could also finish 6-2 or better, making tiebreakers key.
- For example, if there is a tie among three teams for first/second place, the ACC’s tiebreaker policy will apply: first head-to-head among tied teams, then record vs common opponents, then record vs common opponents ordered by finish, and so on.
The playoff picture is somewhat more complex:
- Under the current format for the College Football Playoff (12-team field), there are five automatic qualifier (AQ) bids awarded to the five highest-ranked conference champions.
- If Miami becomes ACC champion and is among the five highest‐ranked conference champions, they automatically qualify.
- If they are not champion, they can still be selected as an at-large team, but that depends on their resume (overall record, quality wins, strength of schedule, fewer bad losses).
- Winning out and finishing ~10-2 with good wins would give a strong résumé. If they win the ACC title game, they’d carry both a champion label and a likely strong ranking.
- If they don’t make the ACC title game (or lose it), their at-large chances drop, especially if there are other one‐loss or no‐loss teams in other conferences
- The Hurricanes’ path to both the ACC title game and the CFP is definitely alive, but has become less forgiving after the recent loss.
- With roughly a 56.5% chance (per current odds) of winning all remaining games, they have a realistic shot at a perfect finish.
- If they win out:
- They will almost certainly get into the ACC title game, provided they again finish among the top two conference records.
- If they then win the ACC title game, they likely get an automatic bid to the CFP.
- If they lose the title game, or if tiebreakers push them out of the ACC title game altogether, they’ll need a strong at‐large résumé and favorable ranking/result outcomes in other conferences.
- If they lose one or more of the remaining games, they’ll need help (other teams losing) and favorable tiebreakers to reach the ACC title game; their CFP path becomes more fragile.
- Some important “ifs” to watch:
- Other ACC teams’ records and who they lose to.
- Miami’s wins—how good are they (ranked opponents, quality metrics).
- Avoiding any “bad loss” (i.e., a loss to a weak team) that could damage résumé for CFP.
- Ranking among other conference champions (for AQ status) and overall national ranking for at‐large purposes.
MIAMI HURRICANES — CURRENT STATUS
CURRENT ACC STANDINGS & CONTEXT
TEAMS MIAMI NEEDS TO LOSE — REMAINING GAMES & ODDS
Georgia Tech (5-0 ACC, #9 AP)
Virginia (4-0 ACC, #15 AP)
SMU (3-1 ACC, holds H2H vs Miami)
Louisville (3-1 ACC)
COMBINED IMPLICATIONS FOR MIAMI
CFP IMPACT SUMMARY
