A Deep Dive into the Sludge - Past Recruiting

816Cane

Lost my job. Lost my wife. Found CIS.
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While coaching has been the hot topic on the board over the past weeks (and rightfully so in many regards), I wanted to add some context and perspective to the discussion as we grow increasingly tired of Mario's "back to work" mantra/coach speak. Another poster had done something similarly recently, but I wanted to take it further, to show some justification for what Mario is really inheriting with our beloved program (pure, unadulterated, sludge).

I took the recruiting classes from 2018-2021 to look specifically at what other schools were involved in these recruitments. We love to talk about clue chip ratio's and overall talent comparisons to other teams, but there are some alarming finds;

Significant Points:
- 3 Senior starters that were recruited by Miami. 8 total starters between the Junior and Senior classes. (2 total draftees who were recruited by UM)
- 18 players have left the program or been disasters from the Junior and Senior classes. Including 7 of the top 10 recruits from 2018.
- 53% of the 2018-2021 classes are either in the portal/disaster rating, or significantly underwhelming rating.
- The class with the largest number of starters is 2021, with 6.
- An incredibly low number of official visits taken from all years. (Covid impacted 2021*) LIKE AMAZINGLY LOW.
- Alabama offered 10/81 players, with only 5 official visits to Alabama (according to 247*). There is no way to know if all those offers were committable. (i.e; Patrick Joyner, Daz Worsham)

The most significant finding was that a large majority of our mid-tier 4 star recruits (> top 247 class ranking) had little to almost no recruitment activity outside of contact with UM.. while this may be due to 247 not taking as close of a look with these kids, many of the 3 star kids had longer/larger recruitment timelines than the 4 star kids that have come to UM.

For reference:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R_lVx_wA1mwXER7dL2tl20eiG-1jCvsmfX4_M7y3u3o/edit#gid=0

TLDR;
Please be patient, doing it right is more important than doing it quickly.
And yes, we should still be able to play more competitively against our opponents with the talent levels in-house.
 
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You make an amazing point.

We always look at class rankings and say

“we have talent”

While neglecting that we lose an insane amount of top rated players to attrition of one form or another.

You pointed out 7 of top 10 rated players in 2018 are gone.

You gotta throw that rating out the window.

But I also agree that Gattis sucks.
 
Interesting regarding the recruitment of the blue chip guys. My brother and I were just discussing that last week, wondering just how coveted our four+ star players were and how they're likely overrated for their ranking. I had a feeling they weren't heavily recruited by the big time programs.
 
I'm not gonna lie, I did a quick once over if the classes form 2018 to last year... Do we even have a roster of 65 players?
With injuries we've had this year... Yeesh man we don't many just bodies period let alone talented ones. Agreed Gattis is still junk.
 
It’s not really unknown at this point our 2018 & 2019 classes were abominations. 2017 had its fair share of missed too with 2016 being a very small class. Kinda hard to build a program like that. Both 2021 & 2022 are seemingly respectable compared to the prior classes but that’s not saying much. We simply cannot afford to miss much on this class & 2024.
 
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Roster is so mid outside a handful of players
More than that it’s a roster full of players who don’t want to play hard. I saw so many defenders not even making the slightest attempt to get off blocks. That really stood out. Jaccuri Brown played hard, and that gives me optimism for Mario’s players in the future.
 
to keep discussing the roster v. coaching dynamic is pointless at this point: both have been mediocre to totally awful. Luckily our head coach’s strong suit is actually building rosters and recruiting despite his obvious limitations on game day and historical stubbornness with offense philosophy regardless of where he has been.

Agreed on the patience ONLY when it comes to that. The rest of this tenure has been completely embarrassing so far.

It’s pretty amazing McClain committed here after how horrific this year has been but due to Mario’s style, we have no choice (if you want to keep watching and based on his contract) but to be patient.
 
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to keep discussing the roster v. coaching dynamic is pointless at this point: both have been mediocre to totally awful. Luckily our head coach’s strong suit is actually building rosters and recruiting despite his obvious limitations on game day and historical stubbornness with offense philosophy regardless of where he has been.

Agreed on the patience ONLY when it comes to that. The rest of this tenure has been completely embarrassing so far.

It’s pretty amazing McClain committed here after how horrific this year has been but due to Mario’s style, we have no choice (if you want to keep watching and based on his contract) but to be patient.
Yeah, he’s almost a year into a 10 year deal. We know he can recruit. If he wants to succeed, he’ll go a very different direction with the next OC and scheme. And hopefully, he turns it all over to him including clock management.
 
Players AND coaches are certainly to blame. But NFL scouts find talent all over the country, from D1 to DIII to NAIA. You see guys from schools you never heard of get drafted in the first 3 rounds and even more make it as UDFA guys placed onto practice squads. Not all of these guys are coached up in college, but they have raw talent and find their way into the league.

How many third, fourth, fifth or freakin 6th year players on this Miami squad can last on an NFL practice squad for a full season? Not the 53…practice squad. If you are being honest with yourself, it’s not many - and those who would make it have either been hurt, haven’t consistently played to their potential Or have simply checked out mentally for a variety of reasons (some of which fall on the coaches).

No secret that our best team in the last 15 years still has dudes playing significant snaps in the NFL over the last two years (Berrios, Njoku, Herndon, DeeJay, Homer, Garvin, Jaquan, Shaq) or on practice squads (KC McDermott, RJ Mcintosh, Mike Jack and I’m sure there is more). All of those guys contributed every single game in 2017. We can’t say that about any single player this year except maybe Jalen Rivers and of course now he’s hurt. Combine this with significant coaching flaws on offense and defense, and you get a 4-5 record.

Should we be 6-3 still? Yes. And no excuse for MTSU or the FSU blowout. But it’s also not that surpassing either.
 
Brah only recruiting bettter players with better mentality fixes this. The roster is out of sync, players havent played together. We have players who are not physically suitable for whats required. Their mentality is fragile. U see it on the field. Coaching has been issue but they didnt recruit most of these players. We overrated the roster and its bad. Its not rare, Texas 5-7 last year, OU struggling this year, UGA struggled 8-5, Bama struggled 6-6, Tennessee 7-6. Developing a physical mindset is much more than schemes and it weeds out people. I went to that abortion saturday night. That's rock bottom. By season end, the staff should know everyone who needs to go. I said i wouldnt mind bringing in 35-40 players to join the few who were good from Manny and the ones who came in with Mario. Mentality mentality. When people talk about stars, talk about that. Its the only thing that counts
 
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The bottom line is kids dont get drafted and we rarely ever have a top 3 round draftee... Its like dudes on this site believe high school talent evaluators more than they believe NFL talent evaluators and then want people to listen to their big brains cry about how we have the most talent in the ACC behind Clemson. We have athletes but its clear we dont have kids with loads of football talent. No discipline, don't want to tackle, poor separation, easily faked out, lack speed at key positions.
 
We only critique our own classes, have you ever taken 2 or 3 top 10 to 15 teams in critiqued their blue chip success rate to ours, the amount of players drafted to ours, etc.? I would guess it is pretty similar to our success/miss rates over the past 17-18 years. Too many of you think that we have to have 99-02 talent or 84-93 talent to win in college football. National title teams for the most part aren’t winning with close to that level of talent.
 
We only critique our own classes, have you ever taken 2 or 3 top 10 to 15 teams in critiqued their blue chip success rate to ours, the amount of players drafted to ours, etc.? I would guess it is pretty similar to our success/miss rates over the past 17-18 years. Too many of you think that we have to have 99-02 talent or 84-93 talent to win in college football. National title teams for the most part aren’t winning with close to that level of talent.
Do you have any ideas of schools you would like me to look at? I thought about this as well, comparing to other schools.. but the only teams that have really competed for national titles since the playoff started are Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio St. Sure you have a couple of one-offs in there, like Cincy, Notre Dame, and Michigan but they are not sustaining that success either. It feels like you do need to have 99-02 talent to sustain championship-level success.
 
Do you have any ideas of schools you would like me to look at? I thought about this as well, comparing to other schools.. but the only teams that have really competed for national titles since the playoff started are Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio St. Sure you have a couple of one-offs in there, like Cincy, Notre Dame, and Michigan but they are not sustaining that success either. It feels like you do need to have 99-02 talent to sustain championship-level success.
In addition this, of the 10/81 players that Alabama had offered that UM recruited over this stretch.. the usual suspects of Georgia, Ohio St were also involved in those recruitments for 8/10 players.
 
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