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Sunday post-season baseball report

QueenOfSpades

QueenOfSpades

Thunderdome
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While our RPI score dropped by a couple of points, we held on to the #3 position. UCLA losing to Gonzaga helped us hold on to that spot.

The next four games are going to drop our RPI even if we win all of them 20 to nothing. I am going to drop a note to Coach Morris in the offseason about being smarter in scheduling this finals week series. There are bad teams with decent records that won't hurt our RPI the way New York Tech will.

The thing we need the most next week? We want Florida State to sweep Louisville into oblivion. Louisville is a bubble national seed. They have the gaudy conference record, but their RPI is only 18. If FSU can send them on their way, that leaves just the two of us, and the ACC will easily get two national seeds if we and FSU are top 5 in the RPI.

The Georgia Tech series is big, but 2-1 is all we need. A sweep would be nice but the series win is vital.

The FAU game is huge to both of us.

If the season ended today, Virginia would not even make the ACC Tournament. That's one year after almost lifting the trophy.
 
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Louisville is more of a national seed lock as of right now than FSU. RPI is 50%, yes but the rest of Louisville resume is impressive. Of course Louisville is in danger right as I type this of losing a series to Clemson.
 
shoeless said:
Louisville is more of a national seed lock as of right now than FSU. RPI is 50%, yes but the rest of Louisville resume is impressive. Of course Louisville is in danger right as I type this of losing a series to Clemson.
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The rest of Louisville's resume exists entirely within the ACC. They have one of the worst non-conference schedules in the country.
 
The rest of Louisville's resume is leading the ACC by like 5 games (off top of my head). That alone is enough to be a lock for a national seed. FSU is 2 weeks out of being swept by Notre Dame, a team that is now destructing. Most of FSU damage has been done in midweek games (wins over UF, USF, UCF). Besides Miami weekend series win (which LVille also has), FSU biggest series wins are over Wilmington and Coastal, 2 teams who are most likely going to drop in the RPI. Wilmington was a top 25 RPI a couple weeks ago, giving FSU 3 top 25 wins, now they are somewhere in 30's. Coastal will most likely drop out of top 25 as well as they jumped into top 25 by beating FSU yesterday. Louisville has the most top 50 wins. And yes, I 100% agree with that Louisville SOS has been awful but when you lead the ACC by 5-6 games at 20-3 then that can slide. Most of the so called "experts" have Louisville a top 3 seed, with FSU just entering the top 8.
 
There are bad teams with decent records that won't hurt our RPI the way New York Tech will. [/QUOTE said:
That's asking a bit much don't you think? How do you find a bad team with a decent record before the season is even played and then try to schedule them based on what it might do to your RPI when you have no real idea how good your own team will actually be?
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shoeless said:
The rest of Louisville's resume is leading the ACC by like 5 games (off top of my head). That alone is enough to be a lock for a national seed. FSU is 2 weeks out of being swept by Notre Dame, a team that is now destructing. Most of FSU damage has been done in midweek games (wins over UF, USF, UCF). Besides Miami weekend series win (which LVille also has), FSU biggest series wins are over Wilmington and Coastal, 2 teams who are most likely going to drop in the RPI. Wilmington was a top 25 RPI a couple weeks ago, giving FSU 3 top 25 wins, now they are somewhere in 30's. Coastal will most likely drop out of top 25 as well as they jumped into top 25 by beating FSU yesterday. Louisville has the most top 50 wins. And yes, I 100% agree with that Louisville SOS has been awful but when you lead the ACC by 5-6 games at 20-3 then that can slide. Most of the so called "experts" have Louisville a top 3 seed, with FSU just entering the top 8.
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Find Dennis Farrell's quotes about the importance of non-conference strength of schedule.
 
No doubt it is important. But Louisville closes with midweeks against Kentucky and Vanderbilt. It would help us more if Louisville just spanked FSU.
 
4Canes said:
That's asking a bit much don't you think? How do you find a bad team with a decent record before the season is even played and then try to schedule them based on what it might do to your RPI when you have no real idea how good your own team will actually be?
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Simple, you don't schedule the team that went 4-46 with an RPI of #302 last year. It's doubtful that a program like that is going to put together a respectable program the next year.

It's not difficult to identify the teams that are going to have good win-loss records. Playing Alabama State last year was perfect. They were 37-20. We just played Morris ball and blew one of the games. Since half of the RPI is Opponents' Record, an opponent like that actually helps us.
 
QueenOfSpades said:
4Canes said:
That's asking a bit much don't you think? How do you find a bad team with a decent record before the season is even played and then try to schedule them based on what it might do to your RPI when you have no real idea how good your own team will actually be?
Click to expand...

Simple, you don't schedule the team that went 4-46 with an RPI of #302 last year. It's doubtful that a program like that is going to put together a respectable program the next year.

It's not difficult to identify the teams that are going to have good win-loss records. Playing Alabama State last year was perfect. They were 37-20. We just played Morris ball and blew one of the games. Since half of the RPI is Opponents' Record, an opponent like that actually helps us.
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Well, ok then...I guess you have a point.
 
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Our OOC SOS is currently 33. It will drop with New York Tech and then bump a little with FAU.

In contrast here are a few other teams OOC SOS:
LSU - 232
Texas A&M - 179
Ill - 232
TCU - 127
Louisville 275

FSU is sitting at 23
 
Who are they going to find to play OOC 2 weeks before the end of the season? If we werent 4-8 against UF, FSU, Lville and UVA, it would be a moot point.

We are NOT going to be a National seed but will host a regional.
 
CTCANE said:
Who are they going to find to play OOC 2 weeks before the end of the season?
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Every team in the ACC has a week off for finals. FSU found Coastal Carolina. Clemson found Georgia Southern. Georgia Tech found Presbyterian. Other teams just take that weekend off and spread out three more mid-week games throughout the season. But good grief, bringing in the worst team in baseball isn't our only option.

CTCANE said:
If we werent 4-8 against UF, FSU, Lville and UVA, it would be a moot point.
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Yeah, but we did lose every big series. Again. If your savior isn't going to earn a national seed with important road wins, at least don't kill us with stupid scheduling.
 
Aside from winning out, including the ACCT, we are going to have to go through a road super regional. If we can even get by the regionals this year. Not one series win 3-6 overall, vs our top three opponents sticks out like a sore thumb.
 
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TheU1984 said:
Aside from winning out, including the ACCT, we are going to have to go through a road super regional. If we can even get by the regionals this year. Not one series win 3-6 overall, vs our top three opponents sticks out like a sore thumb.
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All three of those are national seed contenders, and we won't see anyone like that in round one.
 
Based on the last two years, nothing in a Regional can be taken for granted. Seems like each team we face has a pro prospect that we get lucky enough to face.
 
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I wouldn't worry about Super Regionals and National seeds. Last year was the biggest cakewalk gift in baseball history for us to waltz into Omaha and even win it all, and we couldn't even get out of Dade County. A intramural SEC squad beat UVA in the finals. LOL! TT went to the CWS (and was beat in two games by a combined score of like 45-0)
 
They will throw some middle tier SEC team in our home Regional, and that is all she wrote, and UF dances into the CWS.
 
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