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4.5 Stars on Defense v 2.0 Starts on Offense

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On this year’s NFLPA All-Pro Team, none of the 11 offensive players selected had been a five-star recruit; only one of them, guard Zack Martin, was even ranked as a four-star prospect. The average star ranking of the 11 players was 2.0. It’s on the opposite side of the ball where stars apparently really matter. Of the 11 defensive players on the All-Pro team, seven had been five-star recruits and two more were four-stars prospects. The other two were three-star players, making the average 4.5.

"You can disguise a good player on offense and also uplift and over-evaluate a player with an unbelievable supporting cast,” said former NFL scout Daniel Jeremiah, a draft analyst with NFL Network. “With defensive guys, it’s more, ‘Did you beat the guy in front of you?’ And when it comes to D-linemen, there’s only so many of those guys. It’s like with cornerbacks: There are physical requirements for those positions. You can play with a 4.6 wide receiver. You can’t play with a 4.6 cornerback.”
 
Super interesting. I would be interested in the averages for the last decade. All Pro First team WR had 3 lowly ranked/recruited players and 2nd team WR had 3 highly ranked/recruited players.
 
TheAthletic is routinely publishing garbage articles like this that insult the readers' intelligence. Most journalists would not last a single day in a serious business setting because they'd be fired the first time they cherry pick some data and think it'll convince the management to agree with their point. This tweet could be an LSAT question where youre supposed to identify the flaw in the author's argument and the answer would be "E: all of the above". Ignore it and don't take this guy seriously for anything other than when he reports on an event occurring.
 
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Not predicting all-pro or even NFL starter success. & It is still early too early to say, especially for Anez, but Miami and Ole Miss (Quinshon Judkins) may have recruited two future pros from under the nose of Auburn and Alabama.

Evaluations are everlastingly important.
 
cookies said:
Super interesting. I would be interested in the averages for the last decade. All Pro First team WR had 3 lowly ranked/recruited players and 2nd team WR had 3 highly ranked/recruited players.
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Yes. Take that just a hair farther and you see the 2nd team substantially contradicts his claim.
 
Wake_Cane said:
Yes. Take that just a hair farther and you see the 2nd team substantially contradicts his claim.
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Yeah, that tweet/headline is click-baity. I do find it interesting that many 3 star recruits who become future probowlers or All-Pro players like Trent Williams, Eddie Jackson and Justin Jefferson still find their way to major programs. Even if they were offered/taken later in the cycle.
 
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Wake_Cane said:
Yes. Take that just a hair farther and you see the 2nd team substantially contradicts his claim.
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100%. This is taking an outlier and positioning it as if it's a common occurrence.

Take the Top 5 at each position and the average number will come up on offense, and go down on defense.

It's definitely interesting though, and wouldn't be surprised if there's merit in projecting defense to be easier than offense.

Example - a WR than can't catch can switch to DB and be successful. The reverse is less common.
 
These sites evaluations are terrible is what this is telling me. They don’t evaluate QBs Oline WR well especially oline imo
 
Makes a lot of sense if you look at profiles of defensive players. Good defenses are usually the ones that have the most “dudes.” Freak athletes can make it on defense more so than offense because of the nuance and craft perfection needed to execute the scheme. Defense is a lot more instinctual and based on winning 1:1 matches, especially up front.
 
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This stuff does not matter when talking about college football traditional recruiting.

Now, Transfer Portal stuff, this is important and is where you need to mine...finding those former 2-stars that will be NFL players as they are in the middle of their rise is vital for many programs moving forward.
 
What All pro player was 2 star? I think they just made that up.

The premise does make sense though. You can scheme your way to a good offense with average players but a dominant defense, especially a defensive line, requires studs. There’s only so many superhuman 300 pound guys with cat quickness in the world.
 
BoxingRobes said:
This stuff does not matter when talking about college football traditional recruiting.

Now, Transfer Portal stuff, this is important and is where you need to mine...finding those former 2-stars that will be NFL players as they are in the middle of their rise is vital for many programs moving forward.
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It matters in college recruiting. Maybe not as much as the pros but it is still a factor.

What it tells me is that the star system for ranking recruits is oriented towards or bias towards physical attributes that are easily measured. That correlates more directly to predicting performance for defensive positions. What it doesn't do as well is measure intangibles such as football IQ or if an OL has a "mean streak" in him. That's more of a factor for offensive positions. People still try to assess but it's subjective and more variable based on the skill of the evaluator.
 
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