3rd down % in 2022

[umhurricano]

https://staturdays.com/2021/12/03/2...he team with the overall,and Penn State (5.9).

Some interesting analysis on conversion rate by distance (offense). We appear to be terrible at short yardage, above average at long yardage situations, and somewhere in the middle for mid-yardage, which all makes sense based on my drunken observations of the team from the stands and when I typically start throwing things at the TV from home.

I'm not sure the yardage permutations are helpful for these charts (does it really matter if it's 8.2 yards versus 9.2)? What would be more helpful to see is our average 3rd down to gain to understand early down management and how that impacts our overall conversion %.

 

[hydro66]

Ca

Gotta be able to run the ball. Plain and simple. I made so many of these posts when Lashlee was hired because he was really good in this area at SMU. But we sucked when he was here too on 3rd down. It’s because we can’t run the ball. Very hard to be good on 3rd downs when you’re always in 3rd and long. The offense the past couple years has been chunk play or very minimal/no gain/negative. Both things are not conducive to high 3rd down conversion percentages.

Move someone off the line of scrimmage, for the love of Christ. And this will be much better.

Cause our o line was non there. Foundation of a balanced OFFENSIVE .
.

 

[hydro66]

Jimmy Johnson had it right with the canes and Dallas. Butch DAVIS davis had it right.

 

[LuCane]

https://staturdays.com/2021/12/03/2021-update-third-down-conversion-rate-by-distance-to-go/#:~:text=The team with the overall,and Penn State (5.9).

Some interesting analysis on conversion rate by distance (offense). We appear to be terrible at short yardage, above average at long yardage situations, and somewhere in the middle for mid-yardage, which all makes sense based on my drunken observations of the team from the stands and when I typically start throwing things at the TV from home.

I'm not sure the yardage permutations are helpful for these charts (does it really matter if it's 8.2 yards versus 9.2)? What would be more helpful to see is our average 3rd down to gain to understand early down management and how that impacts our overall conversion %.

thanks for this. Matches what you see on the film, though. We got ourselves into a bunch of 3rd and long situations where we then spread the **** out of the field. I'm talking about WRs lined up basically on the sideline. Ha. And, man, TVD is a beast in some of those matchups. He can make all the throws.

 

[hydro66]

thanks for this. Matches what you see on the film, though. We got ourselves into a bunch of 3rd and long situations where we then spread the **** out of the field. I'm talking about WRs lined up basically on the sideline. Ha. And, man, TVD is a beast in some of those matchups. He can make all the throws.

TVD is a great PICK BUT he can't do on his own. Hope GARCIA loves it in South Florida.
.

 

[kryptonite]

I agree - Thad played weaker opponents, and that 48% would be lower carrying a full load. We still need to see more from Thad.

But it wasn't when Thad was getting carries. Knighton wasn't wearing defenses down - it was defenses wearing Knighton down. He flamed out late in the year. That's why I think Thad will be important because he's our only big back and we'll need him to help keep the smaller Knighton/Parrish fresh.

It’s not that Knighton was punishing defenses, but after 60 plays guys are tired. Knighton and every other back would look better if they only played late in the game.

 

[Pixelated bukake]

It’s not that Knighton was punishing defenses, but after 60 plays guys are tired. Knighton and every other back would look better if they only played late in the game.

Honestly, I would love to see a counterintuitive thunder and lightning type situation where Thad gets most of the carries early, softening up the D, then have Rooster get carries when the D is a bit gassed.

 

[DTP]

A more consistent run game will help put us in more third and short situations. It’s nice to be able to stay on the field and sustain drives but we were a big play, pass heavy offense last year and often didn’t need three downs to pick up first downs. Or need sustained drives to score points.

I’m much more concerned about the defense getting better on 3rd down. We all know Manny’s struggles with 3rd downs and his propensity to surrender big gains on 3rd and longs. The defense needs to get the F off the field.

 

[HurikaneMarc]

And we definitely need more discipline. No more badly timed penalties on O or defense on 3rd downs. Just destroys all momentum.

 

[GOCANES05]

Three and out and out O killed our D

GOCANES

 

[CANE1775]

Lu, I skipped to the end to say this is one of the few things that I say keep a watchful eye on with Steele. I'm his number one fan, and I've never really dug deep into these numbers, but it seemed like there were quite a few times where AU wouldn't close out a 3rd down opportunity quick enough. Eventually, but not immediately.
The numbers may say otherwise, but that's something that I remember as being somewhat annoying from time to time.
With that said, I'm FULL STEELE AHEAD!!!