3 Playoff Spots are set

[MIATL]

ACC champ is in. No debate. Miami or Clemson.

SEC champ is in. No debate. UGA or Auburn.

Big 12 champ is in. No debate. Oklahoma or TCU.

And Wisconsin is in with a win in the B1G title game. No debate.

What gets interesting is if Wisconsin loses.

And, IMO, that final spot goes to 11-2 Oklahoma if TCU wins the Big 12 or to 11-1 Alabama if Oklahoma wins.

The committee allowing Ohio State into the playoffs with a worse resume than the 1 that excluded Penn State last year would kill the credibility of the committee.

Objectively, Oklahoma has already proven to be better than Ohio State on the field. So with the same record, they are getting in. And I think Bama gets in over Ohio State because of their brand.

The wild-card team, IMO, is a 2-loss USC winning the PAC-12. Taking them with a Wisconsin loss gives the Rose Bowl a solid match-up with the Big 12 winner, while the ACC and SEC battle in the Sugar. And it keeps the value of winning a conference.

Committee is secretly rooting for Wisconsin to make it easy for them. Short of that, they are rooting for Oklahoma and USC.

Ohio State winning, USC losing, and TCU losing puts Bama in the playoffs, IMO.

 

[AutoCANE]

Dude...you're so far off here.

Two spots are set. ACC Champ and SEC Champ. So Us/Clem's Son and Auburn/UGA are in.

If Oklahoma wins, they're in. If TCU wins, Big XII is out and Bama is in.

If Wisconsin wins, they're in. If OSU wins, B1G 10 is out and Bama is in.

If both TCU and OSU win, Bama is in, and Ohio State is in. Hate to say it but it's true.

 

[JgDaCane]

Dude...you're so far off here.

Two spots are set. ACC Champ and SEC Champ. So Us/Clem's Son and Auburn/UGA are in.

If Oklahoma wins, they're in. If TCU wins, Big XII is out and Bama is in.

If Wisconsin wins, they're in. If OSU wins, B1G 10 is out and Bama is in.

If both TCU and OSU win, Bama is in, and Ohio State is in. Hate to say it but it's true.

THIS.

 

[PharmCane305]

Dude...you're so far off here.

Two spots are set. ACC Champ and SEC Champ. So Us/Clem's Son and Auburn/UGA are in.

If Oklahoma wins, they're in. If TCU wins, Big XII is out and Bama is in.

If Wisconsin wins, they're in. If OSU wins, B1G 10 is out and Bama is in.

If both TCU and OSU win, Bama is in, and Ohio State is in. Hate to say it but it's true.

This imo. No way tcu gets in. Tcu winning opens the door for other 1 loss teams notably Bama.



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[Tyler]

Dude...you're so far off here.

Two spots are set. ACC Champ and SEC Champ. So Us/Clem's Son and Auburn/UGA are in.

If Oklahoma wins, they're in. If TCU wins, Big XII is out and Bama is in.

If Wisconsin wins, they're in. If OSU wins, B1G 10 is out and Bama is in.

If both TCU and OSU win, Bama is in, and Ohio State is in. Hate to say it but it's true.

As it should be. It's an understood reality in CFB that you're better suited to rebound from a loss early as opposed to late. The teams that truly deserve to be there leave no doubt about their place there. When you start splitting hairs, measuring better losses and injuries, you are making decisions on a whim with no mathematical formula to substantiate it. In the end they'd be better off moving teams according to the results of the Championships. If that means 2 loss Ohio State is in, so be it.

 

[GenericYesMan]

Oklahoma losing is the only way I see Alabama playing back in.

ACC winner is locked, SEC winner is locked, OSU or Wisconsin is pretty much locked.

 

[Pickle Richt]

Oklahoma losing is the only way I see Alabama playing back in.

ACC winner is locked, SEC winner is locked, OSU or Wisconsin is pretty much locked.

OSU is not locked in. 5 teams control their destiny. By the looks of this forum, you'd think we weren't one of them.

 

[GenericYesMan]

Oklahoma losing is the only way I see Alabama playing back in.

ACC winner is locked, SEC winner is locked, OSU or Wisconsin is pretty much locked.

OSU is not locked in. 5 teams control their destiny. By the looks of this forum, you'd think we weren't one of them.

Yeah Ohio State is pretty much a lock if they win the Big 10.

Why wouldn't they be? Have you guys not seen how the committee operates?

They don't want multiple teams from the same conference. They like a wide variety of geography. You think they want to leave the Big 10 out to put another SEC team in? No chance.

 

[Pickle Richt]

Oklahoma losing is the only way I see Alabama playing back in.

ACC winner is locked, SEC winner is locked, OSU or Wisconsin is pretty much locked.

OSU is not locked in. 5 teams control their destiny. By the looks of this forum, you'd think we weren't one of them.

Yeah Ohio State is pretty much a lock if they win the Big 10.

Why wouldn't they be? Have you guys not seen how the committee operates?

They don't want multiple teams from the same conference. They like a wide variety of geography. You think they want to leave the Big 10 out to put another SEC team in? No chance.

I'm just saying it's not a sure thing. There will be a debate about a 1-loss Alabama team and a 2-loss Ohio State team that got blown out in November. They picked the 1-loss team last year (OSU) even though their loss was AGAINST that 2-loss team (PSU), so you really have no idea.

 

[ThomasM]

Dude...you're so far off here.

Two spots are set. ACC Champ and SEC Champ. So Us/Clem's Son and Auburn/UGA are in.

If Oklahoma wins, they're in. If TCU wins, Big XII is out and Bama is in.

If Wisconsin wins, they're in. If OSU wins, B1G 10 is out and Bama is in.

If both TCU and OSU win, Bama is in, and Ohio State is in. Hate to say it but it's true.

This is logical, and makes 100% perfect sense. However, when has anyone in power used common sense when Miami and the SEC are involved?

 

[Texxcane]

Dude...you're so far off here.

Two spots are set. ACC Champ and SEC Champ. So Us/Clem's Son and Auburn/UGA are in.

If Oklahoma wins, they're in. If TCU wins, Big XII is out and Bama is in.

If Wisconsin wins, they're in. If OSU wins, B1G 10 is out and Bama is in.

If both TCU and OSU win, Bama is in, and Ohio State is in. Hate to say it but it's true.

This is logical, and makes 100% perfect sense. However, when has anyone in power used common sense when Miami and the SEC are involved?

Plus 1

 

[AutoCANE]

Dude...you're so far off here.

Two spots are set. ACC Champ and SEC Champ. So Us/Clem's Son and Auburn/UGA are in.

If Oklahoma wins, they're in. If TCU wins, Big XII is out and Bama is in.

If Wisconsin wins, they're in. If OSU wins, B1G 10 is out and Bama is in.

If both TCU and OSU win, Bama is in, and Ohio State is in. Hate to say it but it's true.

This is logical, and makes 100% perfect sense. However, when has anyone in power used common sense when Miami and the SEC are involved?

LOL very true. I am just going on past precedent - the committee has never chosen a two loss team (they may have no choice but to take a two loss Auburn this year) and they have never taken two from the same conference. Given that Auburn may make it by default if they beat Georgia again, I doubt they would want to break precedent on two principles in the same cycle, unless the teams in position decide to blow their opportunity. I know after last year's choice of Ohio State they are supposed to weigh conference championships heavier than before.

Who knows though, these are human beings we're talking about.

 

[SCarolina Ibis]

After what happened last year with them putting Ohio State in, over Penn Stste, I think they'd make it a point to do it again this year. This time with Alabama over them. But this is how CBS has it. They meant to have Clemson there though.

 

[Gatorhater]

We win, we are in. The rest doesn’t matter

 

[SFbayCane]

I think UCF should get a spot in the playoff if they beat Memphis again.

 

[JayCane20]

Locks to get in are the winner of ACC Championship and SEC Championship. Oklahoma is a lock if they win. Wisconsin is a lock if they win. It'll get interesting if we have to debate a 2 loss Big 10 or Big 12 champion, either of the 2 would be coming off a win against a top 4 team and debating them vs a 1 loss Alabama that just sat idle and hasn't beaten anyone worth a **** this year.

I'm not going to get into debating exact seeding but its obvious that if Clemson wins, they're number 1. Clemson loses and Oklahoma wins, OK is 1. The ACC champ is in regardless. Miami is anywhere from 2-4 with a win depending on the way the other games shake out. The SEC champ is in regardless. Auburn is anywhere from 1-4 with a win, depending on other games. Georgia is anywhere from 1-4 with a win. Wisconsin is somewhere 1-3 with a win.

Now it gets interesting if Ohio State wins. Wisconsin is out and (You'll have ACC champ, SEC champ in already and Oklahoma if they win) debate Ohio State with Alabama at 1 loss. If TCU wins (You have ACC champ, SEC champ, Wisconsin assuming they win). Debate 2 loss TCU as conference champ with 1 loss Alabama.

If Ohio State and TCU win, Oklahoma and Wisconsin are out. Now you debate Ohio State and TCU, 2 loss conference champs, with 1 loss Alabama and 1 loss Wisconsin, in the running for the final 2 spots and it could even bring in a 2 loss PAC 12 champ in the discussion.

And highly doubtful, but in that last scenario, Wisconsin and Oklahoma losing, if UCF wins vs Memphis, maybe they get in the discussion with 2 loss Ohio State, 2 loss TCU, 2 loss PAC 12 Champ, and 1 loss Alabama?

Interesting debates because almost all teams in discussion have better wins than Alabama and they can't deny that fact. I hate debating the "best loss" because if Alabama only played 1 team in the top 25 and lost. They controlled their own destiny and blew it.

 

[Handsome Squidbum]

The Alabama loss maybe actually mean the Pitt loss is now largely irrelevant. Here's why: many of us thought that if we went into the ACC championship undefeated and lost a close game to Clemson, we still had a shot at grabbing the last playoff spot. I don't think that would be the case anymore. I'd bet anything that a one loss Alabama team would get the fourth playoff spot over a one loss Miami team that wasn't ACC champions. The committee would water down the importance of winning the division and make the eyeball test argument, that between the two 1-loss non-champion teams, Alabama looked more dominant this year. Of course, it would have been a great feeling to have finished the regular season undefeated, but in terms of giving us a "margin for error" I don't believe it would have anymore. Making the playoffs would have come down to the same thing: winning the ACC championship.