For reference
2009-2019. Chances of getting to 2nd contract.
Position,Starter % (any team),Retention % (original team),Notes
QB (Quarterback),~60–65%,~55–60%,High ceiling and high bust rate.
RB (Running Back),~55–60%,~60%,Clearly outperforms later-round RBs but position is de-valued.
WR (Wide Receiver),~55–60%,~40–45%,Many solid contributors but lower re-sign rate.
TE (Tight End),~65–70%,~55–60%,Higher starter rate than WR/RB in big studies.
OT (Tackle - LT/RT),~80–85% (OL overall),~60–80%,One of the safest positions; strong second-contract odds.
G (Guard),~80–85% (OL overall),~80%,First-round guards much safer than later-round guards.
C (Center),~80–85% (OL overall),~90%,Safest 1st-round spot; most re-sign with drafting team.
Edge (DE / rush OLB),~55–60%,~55–60%,Premium pass-rush spot with decent hit rate.
IDL (Interior DL - DT/NT),~55–60%,~80%,Big gap versus later rounds in success and retention.
LB (Off-ball Linebacker),~70%,~55%,Better hit rate than reputation suggests, mid-tier value.
CB (Cornerback),~60–65%,~35–40%,Strong reason to target CBs in Round 1 vs later.
S (Safety),~60–65%,~40–50%,Often drafted later but 1st-round safeties usually become starters.
If I was a GM for a team with needs at nearly every position, I would use this as my guide unless there it is the very, very, very rare draft where there are multiple players that are 100% certain “can’t miss” prospects, in which case I would take the best one available.