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2021 FPI Power Rankings released today

A large portion of UNC's season was built upon beating us. Their most impressive win (outside of Miami) was a 48-21 win at home against NC State. I don't even think you could pick a second best game that wasn't a loss. Beating Wake 59-53? Beating Va Tech 56-45? Beating Boston College 26-22? They still managed to lose to FSU and UVA. You could probably make a stronger case for UNC to only win 8 games than you could Miami.

And doesn't UNC lose their top two RB's, top WR's, and a ton more? If they went 7-5 it wouldn't shock me. Of course, they would still have beaten us in that scenario.
 
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dhead23 said:
Okla St is ranked #9 and we played them to 3pt game. Outside of the elite teams, we have just as good of shot to make it. We should be considered a sleeper to win the ACC.
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Plus we returned what like 20 of 22 starters coupled with a top 10 recruiting class and an overhaul of the defensive staff
 
DTP said:
I always find the preseason FPI to be kind of weird. Since no games have actually been played, it has to factor previous seasons’ markers. Some of them make sense like returning starters and last year’s results and recruiting classes. Some are kind of strange. Coaching staffs get rewarded for longer longevity and you lose points for having a newer staff. Technically Miami could have a higher ranking had it retained Blake Baker and the other coaches that were replaced this off season.
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Preseason FPI is consistently proven to be fairly off base for the reasons you listed. I try to ignore it (and most rankings) until at least every has played a few games.
 
hurricaneman said:
I don't know, maybe I'm being a homer but 5 ACC teams we play had a 500 or sub record last year, we have 3 OOC games that should be assumed as wins, that's 8 games right there. An 8-4 record means we beat everyone who went 500 or less last year and lose to everyone else. It just seems like a bad prediction. Considering we won 8 games last year with no OOC cupcakes and 2 less games, and we return most starters including our QB.

I think 9 games is a much more realistic expectation (10 as a fan).
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I get your point and don't disagree with you that 8 seems low, but let's not forget that Miami went 6-7 the previous year. Teams do improve (and regress).
 
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anandris said:
https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi

Canes come in at 20 with a 28.1% chance to win the division (ouch), 7% chance at winning the ACC, 1 % chance to make the playoff, and .1% chance to win it all! (So you're saying there's a chance???). Only 20 teams have above 0.1% chance to win it all so I guess we're a contender in a way? :LOL:

Other notables: FSU at 41, VA Tech at 28, UNC at 13, Florida at 14
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UNC will have some good player's, but it's their Coaching that is superior to ours.
 
hurricaneman said:
A large portion of UNC's season was built upon beating us. Their most impressive win (outside of Miami) was a 48-21 win at home against NC State. I don't even think you could pick a second best game that wasn't a loss. Beating Wake 59-53? Beating Va Tech 56-45? Beating Boston College 26-22? They still managed to lose to FSU and UVA. You could probably make a stronger case for UNC to only win 8 games than you could Miami.

And doesn't UNC lose their top two RB's, top WR's, and a ton more? If they went 7-5 it wouldn't shock me. Of course, they would still have beaten us in that scenario.
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C'mon man ... Right now they have our number. We got beat worst than dog $#'+
 
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anandris said:
https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi

Canes come in at 20 with a 28.1% chance to win the division (ouch), 7% chance at winning the ACC, 1 % chance to make the playoff, and .1% chance to win it all! (So you're saying there's a chance???). Only 20 teams have above 0.1% chance to win it all so I guess we're a contender in a way? :LOL:

Other notables: FSU at 41, VA Tech at 28, UNC at 13, Florida at 14
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Pin this por favor. Want to do a 1/4, 1/2 and end of season conparison to this baseline.
 
By the way, ESPN got several complaints about this (most notably Mississippi State coming in at 10th) and noticed they had something ****ed up in their formula. So they tweaked everything and re-ran it, and Miami is now 10th in the preseason FPI instead of 20th.

www.espn.com

2023 College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2023 College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
By the way, ESPN got several complaints about this (most notably Mississippi State coming in at 10th) and noticed they had something ****ed up in their formula. So they tweaked everything and re-ran it, and Miami is now 10th in the preseason FPI instead of 20th.

www.espn.com

2023 College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2023 College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
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We jumped 10 spots and we now have like a 50 percent chance to win our division.
 
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