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-18.5 vs clemson

AUcane said:
This was my recollection as well. Despite the calls, Hernandez had a TON of room to run. Add that to the fact that our gunner was absolutely stymied (I thnk it was thornton). Lucas is normally our lone gunner but there were a lot more fair catches when JJD was our gunner. If we have Thornton (or even Day) as our gunner, it's not gonna be good.

The reason why STs is so significant is because momentum at home can be such a huge swing for the team. Need to have our best gunner out there AND block well.

Watched the first half of Clemson/Cal. Boy, Reynolds is not very good. Kid can't pass much and will run the ball a lot. Clemson will do a lot of jets, bubbles, etc. A guy to keep an eye on is Tyler Brown - he's their slot/sparkplug. He has some juice. Moore is good. I'm not soo high on Wesco - he's not very physical and while fast, he can be pressed, imo
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agree overall..

 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I thought the same, but they gave up 214 to UNC also.

I didn't watch much of that game with the 17 weather delays, but UNC got 90 against TCU in Ireland and 161 against East Tennessee State.

In a 4-game sample size, giving up over 300 to LSU and another 214 to UNC is going to REALLY skew your rankings. Maybe they just suck?

2 out of their 4 games they gave up 214+ on the ground. The other 2 were Georgia Southern and Cal.

GA Southern is 123rd in the country in rushing yards per game.
Cal is 126th.
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Thank you for the context sir.

They do suck.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I thought the same, but they gave up 214 to UNC also.

I didn't watch much of that game with the 17 weather delays, but UNC got 90 against TCU in Ireland and 161 against East Tennessee State.

In a 4-game sample size, giving up over 300 to LSU and another 214 to UNC is going to REALLY skew your rankings. Maybe they just suck?

2 out of their 4 games they gave up 214+ on the ground. The other 2 were Georgia Southern and Cal.

GA Southern is 123rd in the country in rushing yards per game.
Cal is 126th.
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YOU
ARE
KILLING
ME
WITH
THESE
STATISTICS
AND
FACTS

I'M ABOUT TO BET THE MY LIQUID NET WORTH ON MIAMI -16.5
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Specials are definitely special, for sure. I forgot about the penalty that wiped out the big return, but without going back and rewatching, maybe the penalty was the reason the big return happened in the first place? I'm not sure.
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I remember it being pretty obvious and early in the return.
 
Problem2 said:
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Season 6 Eye Roll GIF by The Office
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Short report I just read echoes what I thought.

Line opened -18.5, public is all over Miami, and the sharps hammered Clemson.

Line has dropped from -18.5 to -16.5 despite 74% of the bets at Draftkings being on Miami, and 75% of the bets at Circa being on Miami.

Problem is, at DK, only 40% of the money is on Miami (60% on Clemson). At Circa, 42% of the money is on Miami (58% on Clemson).

So what's that tell you? The squares betting from their toilet on the app are putting $15 on Miami, but the sharps at the window are throwing thousands on Clemson.

Very, very similar set-up to Wake. Exactly, actually. Just a few points difference. That one opened low 20's, got bet up a little, then got hammered down by sharps and I think closed at -19.5 And we didn't cover.

I expect the same thing will happen here. It already has, to some extent. It moved through 17, which is a key number. I wouldn't be shocked if this one closed closer to -14 by kickoff. Especially if the weather gets worse.
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Great stuff, thank you!

Sounds like the sharps like the lower scoring 10 - 14 point grind fest type win scenario?
 
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