forums

14.1% Postgame Win Expectancy for Indiana

Miami’s defense allowed 20 > Indiana’s defense allowed 21

Miami’s offense scored 21 > Indiana’s offense scored 20

We could have won that game, when you have a special teams blunder that leads to a score, you’re ****ed in a game like that. We were the better team in the 2nd half but couldn’t overcome the blocked punt and 0-10 first half.
 
Advertisement
OrangeBowlMagic said:
We were dead. I was basically a zombie, just waiting to officially check out as soon as they picked up the last year. The nanosecond he jumped, I almost came out of my skin. Holy ****, that one flinch might be the difference in a national championship!!!

And then, yeah. 1st and 10 from the 42, with 51 seconds to go. Ugh.
Click to expand...

And I’m not finding a silver lining in all this either. Each season is a new year, new opportunity, but we went 0-1 in the biggest game in 2 decades and there is no telling if we’ll be back.
 
I just realized we only had the ball for 23:36...and that's even with them scoring a special teams TD.

Wow.

Gotta be our lowest number in the last 2-3 years, by a lot. I knew it was lopsided but that's 10 minutes less than we normally possess it. Beat us at our own game.
 
It is what it is. I’m usually not a huge believer in some of these “advanced metric” stats because they can tell you that what you’re seeing with your eyes isn’t true.

My two eyes told me we were the better offense and defense by small margins but their special teams obliterated ours and that was the difference. It’s not just the blocked punt or the missed field goal. They consistently pinned our offense deep. Toney uncharacteristically fielded a punt inside the five that would have been an easy touchback. We shanked multiple punts but got lucky on one that bounced 25 yards in our favor. The gap in special teams play was big enough to overcome them being the worse team offfensively and defensively.
 
jupo2001 said:
What probably bothered me about the play calling was the fact on the 1st play of the game we run off tackle and gain 9 yards instantly! Then we kind of went away from it and got a little predictable. We only ran 14 plays in the 1st half at one point and Indiana had the ball 14 minutes.

Agree 100% with your take on maximizing the O. We bring VERY LITTLE to the table on the outsides and it makes it that much harder offensively. I kept telling my dad that our X receivers would’ve been option 4 and 5 last season. That speaks volumes. He didn’t want to hear it. 🤷🏾‍♂️

In another note, I truly believe Dawson needs to be upstairs so he can see the game better.
Click to expand...
Him being upstairs wouldn’t be the worst idea tbh, i think he would be if we had a qb coach he could trust
 
We called the "Annexation of Puerto Rico" play from our own 10 yard line on a punt return down 10-7 in the 3rd quarter. (Neat play for sure, also completely bat**** insane) I don't think our coaches thought at that moment, "Oh wow, we are really dominating this game, despite the score!"
 
E1k said:
Him being upstairs wouldn’t be the worst idea tbh, i think he would be if we had a qb coach he could trust
Click to expand...
See, that’s where we need to spend some money too. We hadn’t had a QB coach here in a long time.
 
TaylorWalls said:
Further proof that our fans have a narrative, no matter how easy it is to look up the box score.

After a 25-minute halftime, Indiana had the following drives in the 3rd quarter
6 plays 3:08 Punt
4 plays 2:04 Punt
3 plays 1:45 Punt

Miami also had a 10-play, 5+ minute drive going into the 4th quarter.

So in an hour and 15 minutes of real time, our defense was on the field for 7 minutes. But we're supposed to believe that they were so gassed that they couldn't help but give up a 12-play, 75 yard drive for a touchdown to make it 24-14.
Click to expand...
Yes they came out rejuvenated out of halftime. Then hit a wall.

Why are you ignoring the entire first half? Our entire offensive game plan is to hold the ball and wear teams out to finish them late. So how is that non existent when it happens to us? We didn’t get a single stop in the 4th. And they had the ball for about 10 minutes. Our offense being inept in then first half and our defense allowing them to get 7 yards anytime they wanted lead to the 4th quarter. They used our script against us.
 
Angry Ibis said:
And I’m not finding a silver lining in all this either. Each season is a new year, new opportunity, but we went 0-1 in the biggest game in 2 decades and there is no telling if we’ll be back.
Click to expand...
I understand the sentiment, but while this was the biggest game, it wasn't the biggest game in two decades unless you don't count the three playoff games we won before this one.

I get it, might not ease the sting and you are right, there is no telling if we will be back.

But I don't think it is fair to say we gave this game away. We also got VERY lucky with a few penalties that absolutely should have been called on us. We made costly mistakes, but we also fought hard at multiple points when we could have just handed in the jersey.

Gives me some hope.
 
Advertisement
NC_Canes_11 said:
Yes they came out rejuvenated out of halftime. Then hit a wall.

Why are you ignoring the entire first half? Our entire offensive game plan is to hold the ball and wear teams out to finish them late. So how is that non existent when it happens to us? We didn’t get a single stop in the 4th. And they had the ball for about 10 minutes. Our offense being inept in then first half and our defense allowing them to get 7 yards anytime they wanted lead to the 4th quarter. They used our script against us.
Click to expand...

I'm destroying your point that we were "gassed in the 4th quarter". We literally couldn't have been any more rested when Indiana touched the ball for the first time in the 4th quarter, and we let them drive the length of the field for a touchdown.
 
MikeyCanez said:
We also got VERY lucky with a few penalties that absolutely should have been called on us. We made costly mistakes, but we also fought hard at multiple points when we could have just handed in the jersey.

Gives me some hope.
Click to expand...

And no one ever wants to give our opponent the chance to correct their mistakes. If Indiana gets to take back their bad plays, they beat us by 20. But this isn't a one-sided thing. People act like the Miami Hurricanes control all outcomes on both sides.
 
TaylorWalls said:
I'm destroying your point that we were "gassed in the 4th quarter". We literally couldn't have been any more rested when Indiana touched the ball for the first time in the 4th quarter, and we let them drive the length of the field for a touchdown.
Click to expand...

NC_Canes_11 said:
Yes they came out rejuvenated out of halftime. Then hit a wall.

Why are you ignoring the entire first half? Our entire offensive game plan is to hold the ball and wear teams out to finish them late. So how is that non existent when it happens to us? We didn’t get a single stop in the 4th. And they had the ball for about 10 minutes. Our offense being inept in then first half and our defense allowing them to get 7 yards anytime they wanted lead to the 4th quarter. They used our script against us.
Click to expand...
We 100% were gassed in the 4th quarter. The DL in particular. They couldn’t bring it 100% every snap.

As @NC_Canes_11 said, that was clearly from playing too many snaps in 1H.
 
scrantoncane said:
We 100% were gassed in the 4th quarter. The DL in particular. They couldn’t bring it 100% every snap.

As @NC_Canes_11 said, that was clearly from playing too many snaps in 1H.
Click to expand...

This is just a goofy, made-up concept to save the defense from an embarrassing second half. They're big boys. It's okay to say that they failed.
 
Once again proving that playing at a snail’s pace will not “keep your defense fresh”. Getting first downs keeps your defense fresh and only having like one or two in the whole first half killed our defensive line.
 
DTP said:
Once again proving that playing at a snail’s pace will not “keep your defense fresh”. Getting first downs keeps your defense fresh and only having like one or two in the whole first half killed our defensive line.
Click to expand...

All plays are equal in value. They scored 20 points on 10 drives. Thats enough to win you a football game. Except if your offense gets 1 first down for the first 25 minutes of the game and then you get a punt blocked for a TD.
 
Our starting DL played: 75 (Bain), 73 (Mesidor), 53 (Scott), and 52 (Moten) snaps. Pretty sure they were exhausted in the 4th quarter. IU's RBs ran for 55 yards on 13 carries (4.23 ypc) over the final 2 drives. They ran for just 84 yards on their other 23 carries (3.65 ypc), and that includes their two longest runs (20 and 15 yards). Mendoza scored the game-winning TD on a run as well. That's stuff that happens when your DL is pretty gassed.

Still, we got IU in 4 3rd/4th downs on their 2 4th quarter drives. Had we made one more stop we probably would have won the game. IU made great plays on 3 of those conversions; 1 we didn't get lined up correctly. Valiant effort by the defense, but we just couldn't come up with the late down stop we needed. Sucks.
 
Advertisement
Sucks to play a National Championship game and not play your best.

Cristobal, Dawson, Beck all shrank varying degrees.

If you're Mario, how are you going to go for it from your own 34 and then 4 plays later not go for it from the IU 32 and opt for a 50 yard FG? Will never understand that decision.

Cignetti finds himself in a similar position in the second half and pulls the trigger on a 4th and 5 and basically wins the title on that decision alone.
 
MikeyCanez said:
I understand the sentiment, but while this was the biggest game, it wasn't the biggest game in two decades unless you don't count the three playoff games we won before this one.

I get it, might not ease the sting and you are right, there is no telling if we will be back.

But I don't think it is fair to say we gave this game away. We also got VERY lucky with a few penalties that absolutely should have been called on us. We made costly mistakes, but we also fought hard at multiple points when we could have just handed in the jersey.

Gives me some hope.
Click to expand...
I am happy with the effort of the team, other than maybe the blocking attempt on the blocked punt.

Fighting hard should be the standard in Year 4, and it is, so I did not expect anything less than that -- and I am not going to give it extra credit because someone will create an argument that a ****** team with nothing to play for 10 years ago under [insert coach everyone hates] would have folded...

I say we gave it away because we were the better team, but lost the game due to self induced mistakes. To your point, uncalled penalties wash out, but delay of games or key offsides on a 3rd and plus 10 stop can be costly. Just like that doesn't wash away their self-induced false start almost costing them the game.

First half approach was costly, poor effort on punt block was costly, missed FG was costly, INT was costly.

The National Championship Game will always outweigh the other ones to me. It was a good ride, but we went 0-1.
 
Back
Top