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14.1% Postgame Win Expectancy for Indiana

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MikeyCanez said:
I guess? Sorta seems like it would have been enough points if we don't field a punt inside the 10-yard-line and then punt the ball directly into Kamara's arm.

He wasn't perfect but we can have a LITTLE continuity on a coaching staff coming off a national championship appearance?
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I didn’t call for him to be fired. I called for him to be consistently better in big games
 
MikeyCanez said:
Fair enough. We won three extremely big games before this one. Sometimes not everything works.
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He got cute and ran 48 unnecessary gadget plays against A&M. Defense and calling one good drive won the game. He was very good against OSU. He got away from the run game against Ole Miss and called some dumb plays once we crossed the 40 that stalled out drives. Other than those handful of plays, he was pretty good.
 


Whatever the computers say all I know is Miami gifted them special teams points and took too long to make the offensive and defensive adjustments that shifted the momentum to Miami's side.

They couldn't block Miami's DL and they got lucky so many game minutes involved Lucas or OJ being out.
 
90scane said:
IMO, it came down to our inability to do anything in the first half. Mesidor was worn down and IU when heavy with 6 inline OL to gain 3 yards a carry. Had we run outside zone more than twice for 80 yards including some in the first half, we likely win. We ran outside zone twice then didn’t have time left to run it due to the blocked punt.
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100+10% bro.
I’m ol school and football will always be “football” to me…not trying to diminish the penalties but that’s not why we lost. We have been winning games with the same boneheaded mistakes all year. The difference in the loses was play calling and ints in the regular season vs play calling in the 1st half in a championship game. I’ll excuse Beck last minute int because it shouldn’t have never came down a desperate play in the closing seconds of a game.

But Dawson always appears to be playing checkers with himself while the opponent is playing chess. I wonder do he actually gameplan before the game or wait til the second half of the game to gameplan?!?! We win with that 2nd half performance in the 1st half. And making hallftime adjustments on that plan.
 
DMoney said:
I don’t buy this at all. We trailed the entire game. They won the way they’ve won every game they’ve played this season.

They aren’t the best team of all time or any of that other nonsense. But they were the best team this season and the best team yesterday.
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It’s debatable for sure. I would say we certainly outplayed them in the second half. I think Dawson called a horrible game in the first half, although I would give them some credit. The game was there for the taking. Ultimately it came down to a couple of plays, and they made them.

Regarding the season, the statistical improbability of the IU season really needs to be studied. The TO advantage was crazy, the lack of significant injuries all year, the penalties. It’s pretty insane when you go down the list of everything that went their way.
 
DMoney said:
Lmao. Utah!

I truly don’t understand how anyone pays attention to Connelly. He is useless.
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I decided to go back and take a look at Connelly W-L playoff picks (straight-up, not against the spread). It's comically bad.

1st RD Connelly picks to win:

Oklahoma-Lost
Texas A&M-Lost
Ole Miss-Won (beat Tulane which everyone knew would happen)
Ore-Won-beat JMU which everyone knew would happen)

1st RD results: 2-2 He got the obvious blowouts right, but got both competitive games wrong.

Quarter Final Connelly picks to win:

OSU-Lost
IU-Won
Texas Tech-Lost
Georgia-Lost

Quarter Final results: 1-3 He got IU correct, but he was wrong on the other three.

Semi Final Connelly Picks to win:

Ole Miss-Lost
IU-Won

Semi Final results: 1-1 He got IU correct again (he picked them in every game they played), but he was wrong on UM (he picked against UM in all four games going 1-3).

National Championship Connelly Pick to win:

IU-Won

NC result: 1-0

Overall: 5-6. Two games were no contest (Tulane and JMU). So he went 3-6 in real games. And all 3 of his correct picks were for IU. He got all rest of the games wrong except Tulane and JMU losses.


It's actually hard to be as wrong as Sp+ was this playoff season.
 
NC_Canes_11 said:
Refer to the part where I said the defense was worn out and couldn’t get off the field in the 4th. That’s bc they had been on the field a ton more than normal before then
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Refer to the part where they were worn out because they couldn’t get stops even though our offense kept scoring to keep us in the game.
 
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MikeyCanez said:
I disagree, sometimes the answer is simpler and in this case, the country's best rushing defense stopped us early and we just do not have the weapons or the quarterback to win 1-on-1 in the passing game.

You could argue that Dawson should have been scheming guys open earlier, but our offense was always at its best when it could run the ball effectively and we could not do that in the first half.
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Agreed, its really this simple

If dawson didn’t come out running everyone would have shamed him, he came out and did exactly what we got here with. They were prepared but why would he just abandon our run game? He tried different ways and there were a few lanes missed

2nd half he went up tempo and that cut out some of the disguises that they could throw out and he went more air raid, it led to us scoring 21 points, they scored 20 points on offense in total

That blocked punt was the difference, us scoring right after gave us a chance to make up for it at the end of the game but we couldn’t

Maybe they still score after getting the punt but i think we all would trust our defense to stop them or at least hold them to 3 then its 13-7 instead of 17-7.

We score right after and it would be 14-13 us with momentum. Then maybe at the end of the game its 24-21 and that brings a different approach from our offense.
 
E1k said:
Agreed, its really this simple

If dawson didn’t come out running everyone would have shamed him, he came out and did exactly what we got here with. They were prepared but why would he just abandon our run game? He tried different ways and there were a few lanes missed

2nd half he went up tempo and that cut out some of the disguises that they could throw out and he went more air raid, it led to us scoring 21 points, they scored 20 points on offense in total

That blocked punt was the difference, us scoring right after gave us a chance to make up for it at the end of the game but we couldn’t

Maybe they still score after getting the punt but i think we all would trust our defense to stop them or at least hold them to 3 then its 13-7 instead of 17-7.

We score right after and it would be 14-13 us with momentum. Then maybe at the end of the game its 24-21 and that brings a different approach from our offense.
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What probably bothered me about the play calling was the fact on the 1st play of the game we run off tackle and gain 9 yards instantly! Then we kind of went away from it and got a little predictable. We only ran 14 plays in the 1st half at one point and Indiana had the ball 14 minutes.

Agree 100% with your take on maximizing the O. We bring VERY LITTLE to the table on the outsides and it makes it that much harder offensively. I kept telling my dad that our X receivers would’ve been option 4 and 5 last season. That speaks volumes. He didn’t want to hear it. 🤷🏾‍♂️

On another note, I truly believe Dawson needs to be upstairs so he can see the game better.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
It didn’t. I almost came unglued on that play because it was a walk-in TD (you could see Beck knew it too), but we hit Toney for 22 yards on the next play and scored on that drive.

It did burn 2 minutes off the clock that theoretically could have helped at the end, but I didn’t think that one play was much in the difference in the game.
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Would've HURT us if we ended up scoring.
 
I told some people i just don't want the team to beat themselves and they absolutely did. The punt block will haunt me forever.......just the absolute worst play ever and how td soes that happen in the championship game....that could only happen to Miami.
 
BS85 said:
I told some people i just don't want the team to beat themselves and they absolutely did. The punt block will haunt me forever.......just the absolute worst play ever and how td soes that happen in the championship game....that could only happen to Miami.
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Yea I am not here for talk like we just lost to unguardable Joe Burrow throwing dimes to Jefferson and Chase, we gave that game away and the Hoosiers are who we thought they were.
 
NC_Canes_11 said:
I also don’t “blame” Dawson for the loss, but saying he was great in half the game means he failed at half his job. Fact is our whole coaching staff from Mario to Heatherman to Dawson all came out scared. They believed the hype and at halftime they finally realized Indiana wasn’t the best team of all time. That’s when they got back to doing what they should have done the whole game.
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Tale of two halves of the game mirrored the season and it is frustrating. Came out in the first half like we did the first half of the season.

Came out in the second half like post SMU.

Cost us #6.
 
NC_Canes_11 said:
Refer to the part where I said the defense was worn out and couldn’t get off the field in the 4th. That’s bc they had been on the field a ton more than normal before then
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Further proof that our fans have a narrative, no matter how easy it is to look up the box score.

After a 25-minute halftime, Indiana had the following drives in the 3rd quarter
6 plays 3:08 Punt
4 plays 2:04 Punt
3 plays 1:45 Punt

Miami also had a 10-play, 5+ minute drive going into the 4th quarter.

So in an hour and 15 minutes of real time, our defense was on the field for 7 minutes. But we're supposed to believe that they were so gassed that they couldn't help but give up a 12-play, 75 yard drive for a touchdown to make it 24-14.
 
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BS85 said:
I told some people i just don't want the team to beat themselves and they absolutely did. The punt block will haunt me forever.......just the absolute worst play ever and how td soes that happen in the championship game....that could only happen to Miami.
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We were the better team and we beat ourselves. Indiana was well coached and disciplined, played well, played hard, but we still had this game and let it slip away.
 
Angry Ibis said:
We were the better team and we beat ourselves. Indiana was well coached and disciplined, played well, played hard, but we still had this game and let it slip away.
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What's crazy is they tried to beat themselves at the end, and we didn't capitalize.

That false start on 2nd and 1, from the most disciplined and buttoned up team in the country, was INSANE and could have cost them the game. They almost certainly get 1 yard on 2 runs if that doesn't happen, and the game is over. They were 1 yard from a natty....got a false start, and gave us a chance.

AND THEN they rough Beck. Yet another self-inflicted mistake.

After all this **** we've watched all year, they tried to do what they didn't do all year, and give us the game, and we still didn't take it.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
What's crazy is they tried to beat themselves at the end, and we didn't capitalize.

That false start on 2nd and 1, from the most disciplined and buttoned up team in the country, was INSANE and could have cost them the game. They almost certainly get 1 yard on 2 runs if that doesn't happen, and the game is over. They were 1 yard from a natty....got a false start, and gave us a chance.

AND THEN they rough Beck. Yet another self-inflicted mistake.

After all this **** we've watched all year, they tried to do what they didn't do all year, and give us the game, and we still didn't take it.
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💯. That false start almost cost them the season. They beat themselves on that play. 51 seconds and 40 yards and we go for an unnecessary kill shot, that at best we score and Indiana has 40 seconds to get into field goal range.

They blinked. We were rolling and then we blinked.

Maddening.
 
Angry Ibis said:
💯. That false start almost cost them the season. They beat themselves on that play. 51 seconds and 40 yards and we go for an unnecessary kill shot, that at best we score and Indiana has 40 seconds to get into field goal range.

They blinked. We were rolling and then we blinked.

Maddening.
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We were dead. I was basically a zombie, just waiting to officially check out as soon as they picked up the last year. The nanosecond he jumped, I almost came out of my skin. Holy ****, that one flinch might be the difference in a national championship!!!

And then, yeah. 1st and 10 from the 42, with 51 seconds to go. Ugh.
 
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