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14.1% Postgame Win Expectancy for Indiana

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An underrated decision that should have been more controversial imo is mario deciding to kick a 50 yard fg over a 4th and 2 at their 32. I thought we should have been aggressive and went for it

I know we were desperate for points but a 50 yarder is a conservative big risk. If we got 7 before the half the entire 2nd half is different
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
Yeah this is a good point too I just told someone this a couple minutes ago.

We keep saying they played clean, me included. They don't beat themselves. And for the most part, they did. But this was a MASSIVE mistake. They needed 1 yard to end the game. And they jumped, giving us life. We made a mistake of not blocking on punt safe, they get a TD. They make a mistake of a false start when they need 1 yard for a national championship, and we didn't make them pay for it. You're right.
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Also roughing the passer on Beck on our last drive for a free 15 yards.

That's 2 crucial penalties in potentially the 2 final drives of the season. They got tight. We didn't capitalize.
 
JustAFanHTX said:
I respect that. I’ll say this. We were a tunnel screen away from an entirely different game. A middle school play call that could only go to that guy to work because there were no keys for him in that lineup. I think if we take the lead there it’s quite possible we never give it up. But game of inches.
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I said the same thing when that play happened.

Had been setting it up all year and then they called that play. I was sitting in the end zone behind that play. He doesn’t slip and knee touches the ground, he goes all the way. There was no one back there.
 
E1k said:
An underrated decision that should have been more controversial imo is mario deciding to kick a 50 yard fg over a 4th and 2 at their 32. I thought we should have been aggressive and went for it

I know we were desperate for points but a 50 yarder is a conservative big risk. If we got 7 before the half the entire 2nd half is different
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Even if we sputtered and got a closer 3. Our kicker has been struggling in the playoffs. It is also a mindset thing after getting stuffed earlier at near midfield with a predictable run on 3rd and short...
 
JustAFanHTX said:
I respect that. I’ll say this. We were a tunnel screen away from an entirely different game. A middle school play call that could only go to that guy to work because there were no keys for him in that lineup. I think if we take the lead there it’s quite possible we never give it up. But game of inches.
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A blonde **** hair away on that pass, also Bell...WOW
 
DMoney said:
It’s a made-up stat.

Bill Connelly applied his patented “formula” and determined that 2008 Oklahoma (which lost decisively to UF in the title) was the best team of the modern era. Haven’t paid attention to him since.
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We had a +12.3 EPA edge O+D.
We had a -11.67 EPA ST edge.
We had a - 5.82 EPA Pen edge.

This game was lost entirely because Blocked punt TD, missed FG, Beck final INT, them hitting 2 1v1 Back Shoulder Throws, Us not communicating the obvious QB Draw, and just an overall bad opening script on offense. This lead to substantially fewer plays and TOP which killed us in 1st half.

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TomAce said:


A blonde **** hair away on that pass, also Bell...WOW
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Those that know receiver play - easy to say that Carson misplaced that ball but I think Moore just come too far back on that and he should’ve been were Carson threw it so that he catches it in stride and on the go.

Thoughts??
 
Blame game just from my view:

- 87's blocking effort on that punt...of course

- Beck wasn't very good. I don't think he was very good in the entire playoffs, frankly. I don't think he was truly BAD, but I don't think he was a difference-maker, especially tonight. Just cannot drive the ball down field at all.

- Our secondary was the walking wounded out there. Blame O'Connor if you want, but the guy was healthy and fighting. No Frederique or Brown made an impact.

- Mario's decision to kick the field goal in the first half. I get it, we want points, but that was way too conservative.

- Penalties

I sure as **** am not blaming Shannon Dawson though. We weren't great in the first half, but he was in his bag in the second half and is trying to scheme up an offense without a deep threat or a QB that can throw the deep ball.
 
MikeyCanez said:
Blame game just from my view:

- 87's blocking effort on that punt...of course

- Beck wasn't very good. I don't think he was very good in the entire playoffs, frankly. I don't think he was truly BAD, but I don't think he was a difference-maker, especially tonight. Just cannot drive the ball down field at all.

- Our secondary was the walking wounded out there. Blame O'Connor if you want, but the guy was healthy and fighting. No Frederique or Brown made an impact.

- Mario's decision to kick the field goal in the first half. I get it, we want points, but that was way too conservative.

- Penalties

I sure as **** am not blaming Shannon Dawson though. We weren't great in the first half, but he was in his bag in the second half and is trying to scheme up an offense without a deep threat or a QB that can throw the deep ball.
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Thought O'Connor could have had a pick 6, played it safe with the pass defense but think he was there.

Also, those two Becker catches were just awful throws, anything with accuracy O'Connor probably could have at least made a play on.

 
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flips said:
We still scored a TD on this drive 4 plays later though. While unfortunate, I don't think missing it had much of an effect on the outcome of the game.
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It didn’t. I almost came unglued on that play because it was a walk-in TD (you could see Beck knew it too), but we hit Toney for 22 yards on the next play and scored on that drive.

It did burn 2 minutes off the clock that theoretically could have helped at the end, but I didn’t think that one play was much in the difference in the game.
 
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MikeyCanez said:
Blame game just from my view:

- 87's blocking effort on that punt...of course

- Beck wasn't very good. I don't think he was very good in the entire playoffs, frankly. I don't think he was truly BAD, but I don't think he was a difference-maker, especially tonight. Just cannot drive the ball down field at all.

- Our secondary was the walking wounded out there. Blame O'Connor if you want, but the guy was healthy and fighting. No Frederique or Brown made an impact.

- Mario's decision to kick the field goal in the first half. I get it, we want points, but that was way too conservative.

- Penalties

I sure as **** am not blaming Shannon Dawson though. We weren't great in the first half, but he was in his bag in the second half and is trying to scheme up an offense without a deep threat or a QB that can throw the deep ball.
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I thought our DBs did great job.

I feel like in the flow of how our front was playing, we needed to play more bump and run. Mendoza found success hitting the receivers quick when they had the space. When we manned them up from the line, their offense struggled.
 
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props to indiana for winning the ship... well coached, no mistakes and they made the plays they needed to make (Blocked punt, Mendoza TD and back shoulder catches).

BUT our defense was awesome and our offense was plenty good. Coaching was not the issue. BLOCKED PUNT turned momentum when Indiana was on the ropes and put 7 freaking points on the board. All you had to do was PUSH the guy and it never happens. This is NOT on Beck, kicker, Beck or Dawson. We frigging let a guy block a punt and that killed us. Mendoza call was great as was Toney's TD (offsetting), BLOCKED PUNT killed us
 
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