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14.1% Postgame Win Expectancy for Indiana

They played clean, but it was two penalties at the end of the game that gave us a chance to get a stop and a chance to get the ball back with a chance to win. False start and roughing the passer penalty. So, I would say that they didn’t almost beat themselves, because they dang near did.
 
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The U is back to work said:
Yeah the first half we didn’t even look like we belonged. Glad they made it a game but whatever our game plan was, they had the better one.

Dawson was a very average OC this season compared to last year. He never really found his rhythm I felt like all year. Curious if we land Mensah if he returns to his old form because it just felt like he never trusted Beck with the ball to throw.
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I am not sure Beck's arm is totally healed.
 
MarkyMark said:
There is no universe where anyone should say they are the better team. A fluke blocked punt was the difference. Remove that and we win, despite the ineptitude of Dawson. We could have ran on them all day and Dawson refuses to adjust.
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They are undefeated. We have 3 losses. They beat us. They are the better team. It’s ok to say it. That doesn’t take anything away from the season we had.
 
Hoyacane1620 said:
We gave them 7 of those 10 on a blocked punt.
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Doesn’t matter how they got the 10 pt lead. The point is they got into a comfortable position and we didn’t make the plays to close the gap in the end.

Ohio State had an implied win probability of 70% against us. Were they the better team on the day? No.
 
DMoney said:
Every game has its own game flow. To me, that’s like asking about the shape of snow flake. The things they did well to win were the things they’ve done well all year. That includes running the ball, which may have been the most damning for us.

We pushed them to more fourth downs because we were the best defense they played. But they converted their bread-and-butter throws that they execute better than anyone. The punt block was a new mistake by us, but they didn’t make an equivalent mistake because they are elite at playing sound. It’s what they’re known for.

Ultimately, I think our team maximized its ceiling. We had a great team culture, some huge on-field strengths, but were always fighting against a lack of explosiveness and self-imposed errors. We could have won it all, but Indiana earned their title all season and last night.
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Don't know why you chase these. I think your initial statement is inaccurate specifically in that they had to do things they had never pulled off throughout their entire season.

Your middle paragraph begins to acknowledge it. They had to do different things to pull out last night's win. Good on them.

I didn't say we deserved to win or they were less deserving. Just that they didn't win that game the way they managed their season.

We all know this because they went for consecutive 4th downs on 4th and medium. That's the pressure they felt. It hadn't really happened to them. I don't believe in moral victories in a championship game. I just don't want to undercut the position we put them in, either.

Trying to keep it accurate. And, no, I don't put weight into these particular expectancy stats.
 
LuCane said:
Don't know why you chase these. I think your initial statement is inaccurate specifically in that they had to do things they had never pulled off throughout their entire season.

Your middle paragraph begins to acknowledge it. They had to do different things to pull out last night's win. Good on them.

I didn't say we deserved to win or they were less deserving. Just that they didn't win that game the way they managed their season.

We all know this because they went for consecutive 4th downs on 4th and medium. That's the pressure they felt. It hadn't really happened to them. I don't believe in moral victories in a championship game. I just don't want to undercut the position we put them in, either.

Trying to keep it accurate. And, no, I don't put weight into these particular expectancy stats.
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Yeah I’m not following him. I don’t even think Cig would say they won that game doing the same things they did all year. Yes they were superb at 50/50 balls. But they were scrambling just as much to adjust. They hadn’t been THERE before
 
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Brains said:
I think our entire offensive operation was blindsided by how good they were against our run in the 1st half.

That said, just make a ******* FG and it's a 10-3 game...
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That was our supposed advantage and it didn’t materialize in first half. Can’t afford to lose a half from offensive standpoint.
 
They committed the mistake we needed them to and it should've cost them. 2nd a 1 false start when trying to ice out the game.

The opening was there. Beck predetermined his throw and it cost us.
 
Indiana yards per play: 4.40 (Season low by .4 yards, a 4.40 mark for a season ranks you 132nd in the country).

So Indiana beat us with an offense that is 132nd best on a per play basis.

This is where the postgame win expectancy stuff comes from. We pretty much controlled their offense all night. They were 40% on 3rd down, which is way below their season average. They averaged 40 points a game coming in, they scored 20 on us.

Very winnable game, obviously. And we *should* have won it. All I really asked for was us playing a clean game, and I was very confident we'd win. We didn't do it. I know the EPA stuff breaks people's brains but I cannot even articulate what a swing a blocked punt for a TD is in a football game. It's almost impossible to overcome. I fully, fully believe that even with all the other stuff, the penalties, the first half offense, the missed FG...if we just get in Kamara's way when they're not even trying to block the kick, we win a natty.

Would have rather lost 38-10, honestly.
 
They just won the crucial plays and made them at the right times unfortunately. We can micro analyze this all we want. But imo two plays won IU that game last night.

The first 4&5. That was a badly thrown back shoulder. O Connor made a valiant effort but just got beat by his man. If that’s incomplete we are probably going ecstatic on this board rn.

Then the blocked punt. That was just laziness and taking a play off by Baumann. This isn’t Stanford or VT. They didn’t rush to block the punt. He just tried taking an easy play off and it cost us a national title.

I won’t blame the kicker. It was a 50 yarder and those are exponentially more difficult. Mendoza’s TD run was just an unbelievable play by him. And Beck’s INT sucks, but he could’ve quit after how things started but he didn’t. Gutted us to having a chance.

All in all, after sleeping on this game it hurts because it was right there. I’m not going to whine about Dawson or the soft coverage to start the game. Would’ve been nice to not deal with those issues but we overcame them. It simply boils down to those two plays. If just one goes the other way we win. They didn’t and that’s why we lost.
 
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streetja said:
They committed the mistake we needed them to and it should've cost them. 2nd a 1 false start when trying to ice out the game.

The opening was there. Beck predetermined his throw and it cost us.
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Yeah this is a good point too I just told someone this a couple minutes ago.

We keep saying they played clean, me included. They don't beat themselves. And for the most part, they did. But this was a MASSIVE mistake. They needed 1 yard to end the game. And they jumped, giving us life. We made a mistake of not blocking on punt safe, they get a TD. They make a mistake of a false start when they need 1 yard for a national championship, and we didn't make them pay for it. You're right.
 
IMO, it came down to our inability to do anything in the first half. Mesidor was worn down and IU when heavy with 6 inline OL to gain 3 yards a carry. Had we run outside zone more than twice for 80 yards including some in the first half, we likely win. We ran outside zone twice then didn’t have time left to run it due to the blocked punt.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Indiana yards per play: 4.40 (Season low by .4 yards, a 4.40 mark for a season ranks you 132nd in the country).

So Indiana beat us with an offense that is 132nd best on a per play basis.

This is where the postgame win expectancy stuff comes from. We pretty much controlled their offense all night. They were 40% on 3rd down, which is way below their season average. They averaged 40 points a game coming in, they scored 20 on us.

Very winnable game, obviously. And we *should* have won it. All I really asked for was us playing a clean game, and I was very confident we'd win. We didn't do it. I know the EPA stuff breaks people's brains but I cannot even articulate what a swing a blocked punt for a TD is in a football game. It's almost impossible to overcome. I fully, fully believe that even with all the other stuff, the penalties, the first half offense, the missed FG...if we just get in Kamara's way when they're not even trying to block the kick, we win a natty.

Would have rather lost 38-10, honestly.
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That’s my thing. I won’t blame Dawson. In a vacuum you can. But we kinda gotta realize they are coaching against us as well. So there’s naturally going to be a degree of pressure applied by them vs us. IU made a good gameplan to start. But failed to adapt as the game went on. So it’s a wash imo. Same with the defense.

It’s a giant chess match. Losing some offensive mojo early is losing a handful of pawns, a knight and maybe a bishop. But we returned the favor.

The punt was basically losing your Queen and trying to win with rooks. That play will be the reason we lost imo until I die. If that play goes the other way I truly believe we win the game. Our offense was a hot knife through butter for 90% of the second half. They weren’t stopping us. They were cobbling anything together to win.

Also props to Cig for the two fourth down calls. He knew and saw what we all did. They needed those to win.
 
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