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  1. Poptimus

    The pointspread didn’t move

    He's getting from sites like www.sportsbookreview.com which is where I just took this screenshot: This is interpreted as 58% of the public wagers are on Florida and 42% on Miami. But I've been told by people who worked offshore that it's bogus and if you want to read more about it, check...
  2. Poptimus

    The pointspread didn’t move

    Great movement on the ML today and spread seems settled in at -7 for now with equal juice on both sides. O/U now down to 45.5 from 47 this morning. Dropping like a rock.
  3. Poptimus

    The pointspread didn’t move

    You can Google this, it's a known fact. It's not easy to implement in real life. Have you ever tried to wager over a grand on a first half college basketball total between two Sun Belt teams? Good luck. You'll get limited. And that's where the line moves are sharpest, in the less efficient...
  4. Poptimus

    The pointspread didn’t move

    The direction of the line move up until the close is way more often right than wrong in predicting what will happen. Just some of the games over the past few years that the direction of the line movement was right on of ours was: LSU (line moved towards LSU and we all know what happened) FSU...
  5. Poptimus

    The pointspread didn’t move

    Well what I was afraid of happening, happened. I fully expect it now to go to -8 before we see some buyback so if you want to bet Miami just sit tight.
  6. Poptimus

    The pointspread didn’t move

    No, I really did expect the line to go to -7.5 if Jarren was named starter. It certainly wasn't going to move in our favor. Vegas/offshore/sharps have the same intel as everyone about Jarren. The scant few videos of Jarren that Manny allowed to come out of practices ran with a secrecy that...
  7. Poptimus

    The pointspread didn’t move

    Well there we have it: HUGE two point move on the Under. Didn't go from 50.5 to 50. Or even down to 49.5. Straight jumped two full points to 48.5 across a key # in 49 (multiple of 7 in football = key #).
  8. Poptimus

    The pointspread didn’t move

    I didn't say I think we improved. Long-term, yes. This is a great move IMO. But we've seen many stud QBs over the years struggle in their first big game on the road (yes, this is on the road and will be a lot for a first time starter to digest: night game, ESPN, probably 65-70% Gaytors in...
  9. Poptimus

    The pointspread didn’t move

    Lines move for a few reasons, not just money. It can be an adjustment to major injury or suspension news or a move due to a “respect” account making a bet (not necessarily the largest bet, but one from a profiled winner that meets a threshold amount). There’s a reason Vegas makes you use a...
  10. Poptimus

    The pointspread didn’t move

    That Jarren starting has more long-term ramifications on our success than opening week. And the sharps want more due diligence on Jarren since the line didn’t move whatsoever yet clearly him starting has a major impact on the game.
  11. Poptimus

    The pointspread didn’t move

    Pinnacle and many respected outs didn’t move the spread. ****, they didn’t even budge the vig after the announcement of Jarren starting. Kind of surprising us naming a starting QB had no early effect on the line.
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