Bill Belichick has always pumped up the opponent. In New England, every team he played sounded like the '85 Bears. Mario does a version of the same thing.
But Belichick doesn't usually go on the way he talked about Malachi Toney.
He hit everything: the explosiveness, the returns, turning a short throw into a long touchdown, winning leverage on deep routes and beating double coverage. Then he praised Toney as a blocker, cracking safeties and helping spring the explosive runs we hit in last year's playoff games. His summary was simple: "I don't see any weak points in his game."
Pat Narduzzi said after Saturday that Pitt tried to double Toney and he kept beating them outside anyway. Those third-down conversions were against brackets.
Mike Ryan's reaction was the right one.
Make all the Belichick jokes you want, he's still one of the great football minds ever, and hearing him break down the details of Toney's game, the stuff you can't see from the stands, was something else.
It's hard to double a slot guy with that much space to work, especially one who understands leverage the way Toney does. But pass defense is one of the few strengths of this UNC team, and Belichick came up as a DB coach. That's his bread and butter.
So who gets fed if Toney is bracketed all night? Mike thinks this is a Tobacco Road game for Cooper Barkate. He showed out in the Carolinas against Clemson, and he's due for another signature game.
Barkate's role has shifted. Last year he was Mensah's guy at Duke, the first look on every broken play, the way Restrepo was for Cam Ward. Now that guy is Toney.
The trust hasn't gone anywhere. He just isn't the first read anymore, he's due.
Marquise Williams and the Tar Heels flashing the upside-down U started it. Then came Javonte Williams and Michael Carter running all over us in the game that cost the D'Eriq King team an Orange Bowl, back when Mack Brown simply owned Manny Diaz. The list goes on.
Then there's Bobby Petrino, now Belichick's offensive coordinator. He was a problem for us back in his Louisville days. We survived him in the Devin Hester game, then he blew us out up there and carved up Randy Shannon's defense. It's not just Belichick you have to worry about.
Now add Halloween night, prime time, a week before the biggest game of the season. Mike thinks we're a little too chill about all of that.
When we have the ball:
Their pass defense is their strength. But how good is any pass defense against two Heisman contenders with time to throw?
A lot of UNC's pressure comes from the interior, and that's exactly where we've struggled. One strip sack up the middle, the Halloween crowd gets into it, and suddenly Belichick has his signature moment. That's the nightmare.
When they have the ball, the matchup tilts our way even harder:
Experienced quarterbacks have hurt us all year. They see the blitz coming and let it rip. Billy Edwards Jr. has plenty of faults, but he's experienced, just like Ashton Daniels was. Davis Warren had success against us too.
The secondary has questions right now. Omar Thornton didn't play at all against Pitt, and he went into that game as our top snap guy. The staff likes Xavier Lucas, Ethan O'Connor, Zechariah Poyser and Bryce Fitzgerald, but I think they're still searching a little. 60th in yards per pass is not a championship number, in fact it's closer to where we were in 2024. The run defense is championship-level and so is the red zone defense, but we have to clean up the pass defense. I thought Pitt would be the get-right game for it, and they still threw on us.
We're 120th in the country at 72.5 penalty yards a game, with double digits again last week. It's been a consistent problem under Mario Cristobal, and it really cost us the SMU game last year.
UNC is third in the country at 30 a game. On averages alone, that's a 42-yard swing before anything else happens, and a lot of those yards come at first-down, momentum-changing moments. Notre Dame is first in the country in the same stat.
We're about to play two straight teams that don't beat themselves.
Mike and I broke down every one of these numbers on the show, plus the full Belichick clip. Watch it below and subscribe.
But Belichick doesn't usually go on the way he talked about Malachi Toney.
He hit everything: the explosiveness, the returns, turning a short throw into a long touchdown, winning leverage on deep routes and beating double coverage. Then he praised Toney as a blocker, cracking safeties and helping spring the explosive runs we hit in last year's playoff games. His summary was simple: "I don't see any weak points in his game."
Pat Narduzzi said after Saturday that Pitt tried to double Toney and he kept beating them outside anyway. Those third-down conversions were against brackets.
Mike Ryan's reaction was the right one.
Make all the Belichick jokes you want, he's still one of the great football minds ever, and hearing him break down the details of Toney's game, the stuff you can't see from the stands, was something else.
The blueprint
Belichick's entire defensive history is about making you left-handed, taking away the best thing you do, and make somebody else beat you. He's going to try to take Toney away.It's hard to double a slot guy with that much space to work, especially one who understands leverage the way Toney does. But pass defense is one of the few strengths of this UNC team, and Belichick came up as a DB coach. That's his bread and butter.
So who gets fed if Toney is bracketed all night? Mike thinks this is a Tobacco Road game for Cooper Barkate. He showed out in the Carolinas against Clemson, and he's due for another signature game.
Barkate's role has shifted. Last year he was Mensah's guy at Duke, the first look on every broken play, the way Restrepo was for Cam Ward. Now that guy is Toney.
The trust hasn't gone anywhere. He just isn't the first read anymore, he's due.
Chapel Hill is spooky
Mike called UNC the one true rivalry the ACC has given us. The Big East rivalries we brought over are the most hated, but the UNC games have ended seasons and made seasons, and he can't stand their fan base. The history backs him up.Marquise Williams and the Tar Heels flashing the upside-down U started it. Then came Javonte Williams and Michael Carter running all over us in the game that cost the D'Eriq King team an Orange Bowl, back when Mack Brown simply owned Manny Diaz. The list goes on.
Then there's Bobby Petrino, now Belichick's offensive coordinator. He was a problem for us back in his Louisville days. We survived him in the Devin Hester game, then he blew us out up there and carved up Randy Shannon's defense. It's not just Belichick you have to worry about.
Now add Halloween night, prime time, a week before the biggest game of the season. Mike thinks we're a little too chill about all of that.
Why I still like the matchup
Strip away the ghosts and look at the numbers. All of these are national rankings against FBS opponents only.When we have the ball:
- We're first in scoring offense. UNC is 49th in scoring defense.
- We're fourth in yards per play. They're 47th in yards per play allowed.
- We're second in third-down conversions at 55.41 percent. UNC is 94th on third-down defense, allowing 41.94 percent. That's a surprising number for a Belichick defense.
- We've been sacked on just 4.29 percent of dropbacks (29th). UNC is 108th in sack rate. Belichick teams cover; they don't usually rush the passer.
- We average 4.8 yards per rush (34th), and that's after Pitt's sell-out run defense. UNC is 70th, allowing 4.2.
- We give it away half a turnover a game (sixth). UNC is 77th in takeaways at one per game.
Their pass defense is their strength. But how good is any pass defense against two Heisman contenders with time to throw?
A lot of UNC's pressure comes from the interior, and that's exactly where we've struggled. One strip sack up the middle, the Halloween crowd gets into it, and suddenly Belichick has his signature moment. That's the nightmare.
When they have the ball, the matchup tilts our way even harder:
- UNC is 93rd in scoring offense (22.7 points a game). We're 15th in scoring defense (16.7), better than people think given the big plays we've allowed.
- UNC is 95th in yards per play.
- UNC runs it 3.5 yards a carry (105th). We allow 2.5 (fourth).
- UNC only runs on 48 percent of its plays (104th). Teams run on just 39.14 percent of their snaps against us, the lowest rate in the country. Some of that is blowouts. Some of it is that running on us doesn't make sense.
- UNC has allowed sacks on 7.18 percent of dropbacks (87th), and Syracuse got to them at will. We're 37th, getting home on 7.47 percent. We've also had too many drive-bys.
- UNC is 114th in giveaways. We're 29th in takeaways at 1.5 a game.
Experienced quarterbacks have hurt us all year. They see the blitz coming and let it rip. Billy Edwards Jr. has plenty of faults, but he's experienced, just like Ashton Daniels was. Davis Warren had success against us too.
The secondary has questions right now. Omar Thornton didn't play at all against Pitt, and he went into that game as our top snap guy. The staff likes Xavier Lucas, Ethan O'Connor, Zechariah Poyser and Bryce Fitzgerald, but I think they're still searching a little. 60th in yards per pass is not a championship number, in fact it's closer to where we were in 2024. The run defense is championship-level and so is the red zone defense, but we have to clean up the pass defense. I thought Pitt would be the get-right game for it, and they still threw on us.
The stat that scares me most
Penalties.We're 120th in the country at 72.5 penalty yards a game, with double digits again last week. It's been a consistent problem under Mario Cristobal, and it really cost us the SMU game last year.
UNC is third in the country at 30 a game. On averages alone, that's a 42-yard swing before anything else happens, and a lot of those yards come at first-down, momentum-changing moments. Notre Dame is first in the country in the same stat.
We're about to play two straight teams that don't beat themselves.
Mike and I broke down every one of these numbers on the show, plus the full Belichick clip. Watch it below and subscribe.
