Some college football experts are beginning to question the spread in the MiamiOhio State game.
Former Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray and former Clemson offensive lineman Eric Mac lain both came out of their Cotton Bowl prep stunned by the betting line, which lists Ohio State as a 9.5-point favorite over Miami.
“Ohio State is favored by nine and a half points… and I’m like, I’m a little bit shocked,” Murray said. “I think this is the most evenly matched game out there.”
Mac was even more blunt.
“I was shocked when that number came out,” he said. “I would immediately hammer Miami with the points.”
Both teams have rosters littered with future pros.
“I think this is the most NFL talent we’re going to see on the field from both teams,” he said. “Eight of the top 25 prospects are in this game. These rosters are loaded and they are good. They are big, strong, and physical.”
Mac sees one key advantage for the Canes.
“This is back-to-back dream games for Miami,” Mac said, referencing Texas A&M and now Ohio State, “because the game can be won and lost in the trenches.”
The ‘Miami Can’t Score’ Narrative
Murray took direct aim at the national narrative that Miami’s offense is somehow broken.
“People are still like, ‘Oh, the offense can’t score,’” Murray said. “You don’t understand how tough that environment was at Kyle Field.”
He laid out the conditions.
“You’ve got 115,000 people going berserk and 20-to-30 mile-per-hour wind gusts. You become one-dimensional throwing the football.”
The most important thing, Murray said, was Miami's ability to get the victory.
“They did what they needed to do on the road in bad conditions to win a football game,” Murray said. “And if they can’t score this week, I’m not going to say it’s because they can’t — I’m going to say it’s because Ohio State’s defense is that good.”
Mac backed it with numbers.
“This is the second-best offense Ohio State has faced all year in points and total offense,” he said. “The only one better was Indiana — and they lost.”
And that Texas A&M game?
“That was one game in 30-mile-per-hour gusting winds in front of 110,000 people,” Mac said. “That’s not who Miami is.”
Where the Game Is Really Won: The Trenches
Mac, an All-ACC lineman for Clemson, focused first the trenches.
“I just saw Texas A&M’s defensive lineman of the year (Cashius Howell) get put in a phone booth,” Mac said. “He was virtually non-existent. Ohio State doesn’t have that guy.”
Then he went straight at Ohio State’s weakness.
“That right side for Ohio State — they’re not good,” Mac said. “I would put Mesidor and Bain on the same side and I would bring zero (blitzers). You can get the ball out quick, but you’re getting tackled immediately.”
In his view, the advantage is clear.
“Both lines of scrimmage, Miami is the better team. We’ve been preaching that all season.”
And Ohio State’s injury situation only compounds it.
“Their right guard is hurt. They’re bringing a backup left guard over to right. That’s not easy against one of the best defensive lines left in this playoff.”
How Miami Can Control Julian Sayin
Murray explained how Miami will likely defend Ohio State’s star quarterback.
“They’re going to play a light box, two-high safeties, protect their corners until Ohio State proves they can run the football.”
Mac explained why Miami can afford to do that.
“They’re trusting those front four to handle the run, and they have. All season.”
That allows Miami to take away the deep ball.
“You have to go two-high because they’re going to take shots, especially with Jeremiah Smith,” Mac said.
Murray compared it to his own days throwing to A.J. Green.
“Sometimes teams just say, ‘He’s not beating us. Throw it to someone else.’ That’s what Miami’s going to do with Jeremiah Smith.”
But Ohio State has counters.
“They’ve got Carnell Tate too,” Murray said. “Julian Sayin is smart enough to know when and when not to force it.”
Why They Both Pick Miami
Despite respecting Ohio State’s talent, both analysts came down on the Hurricanes.
“I’m going to lean on the fact that you have an experienced quarterback in Carson Beck,” Murray said. “I trust the trenches with Miami. I think Miami wins another low-scoring game, maybe 20-7.”
Mac’s score was tighter, but the same result.
“I’ve got 24-21 in favor of the Canes,” he said.
And for Mac, it keeps coming back to the same thing.
“When you can dominate the line of scrimmage, you control the game. And Miami can do that.”
Former Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray and former Clemson offensive lineman Eric Mac lain both came out of their Cotton Bowl prep stunned by the betting line, which lists Ohio State as a 9.5-point favorite over Miami.
“Ohio State is favored by nine and a half points… and I’m like, I’m a little bit shocked,” Murray said. “I think this is the most evenly matched game out there.”
Mac was even more blunt.
“I was shocked when that number came out,” he said. “I would immediately hammer Miami with the points.”
Both teams have rosters littered with future pros.
“I think this is the most NFL talent we’re going to see on the field from both teams,” he said. “Eight of the top 25 prospects are in this game. These rosters are loaded and they are good. They are big, strong, and physical.”
Mac sees one key advantage for the Canes.
“This is back-to-back dream games for Miami,” Mac said, referencing Texas A&M and now Ohio State, “because the game can be won and lost in the trenches.”
The ‘Miami Can’t Score’ Narrative
Murray took direct aim at the national narrative that Miami’s offense is somehow broken.
“People are still like, ‘Oh, the offense can’t score,’” Murray said. “You don’t understand how tough that environment was at Kyle Field.”
He laid out the conditions.
“You’ve got 115,000 people going berserk and 20-to-30 mile-per-hour wind gusts. You become one-dimensional throwing the football.”
The most important thing, Murray said, was Miami's ability to get the victory.
“They did what they needed to do on the road in bad conditions to win a football game,” Murray said. “And if they can’t score this week, I’m not going to say it’s because they can’t — I’m going to say it’s because Ohio State’s defense is that good.”
Mac backed it with numbers.
“This is the second-best offense Ohio State has faced all year in points and total offense,” he said. “The only one better was Indiana — and they lost.”
And that Texas A&M game?
“That was one game in 30-mile-per-hour gusting winds in front of 110,000 people,” Mac said. “That’s not who Miami is.”
Where the Game Is Really Won: The Trenches
Mac, an All-ACC lineman for Clemson, focused first the trenches.
“I just saw Texas A&M’s defensive lineman of the year (Cashius Howell) get put in a phone booth,” Mac said. “He was virtually non-existent. Ohio State doesn’t have that guy.”
Then he went straight at Ohio State’s weakness.
“That right side for Ohio State — they’re not good,” Mac said. “I would put Mesidor and Bain on the same side and I would bring zero (blitzers). You can get the ball out quick, but you’re getting tackled immediately.”
In his view, the advantage is clear.
“Both lines of scrimmage, Miami is the better team. We’ve been preaching that all season.”
And Ohio State’s injury situation only compounds it.
“Their right guard is hurt. They’re bringing a backup left guard over to right. That’s not easy against one of the best defensive lines left in this playoff.”
How Miami Can Control Julian Sayin
Murray explained how Miami will likely defend Ohio State’s star quarterback.
“They’re going to play a light box, two-high safeties, protect their corners until Ohio State proves they can run the football.”
Mac explained why Miami can afford to do that.
“They’re trusting those front four to handle the run, and they have. All season.”
That allows Miami to take away the deep ball.
“You have to go two-high because they’re going to take shots, especially with Jeremiah Smith,” Mac said.
Murray compared it to his own days throwing to A.J. Green.
“Sometimes teams just say, ‘He’s not beating us. Throw it to someone else.’ That’s what Miami’s going to do with Jeremiah Smith.”
But Ohio State has counters.
“They’ve got Carnell Tate too,” Murray said. “Julian Sayin is smart enough to know when and when not to force it.”
Why They Both Pick Miami
Despite respecting Ohio State’s talent, both analysts came down on the Hurricanes.
“I’m going to lean on the fact that you have an experienced quarterback in Carson Beck,” Murray said. “I trust the trenches with Miami. I think Miami wins another low-scoring game, maybe 20-7.”
Mac’s score was tighter, but the same result.
“I’ve got 24-21 in favor of the Canes,” he said.
And for Mac, it keeps coming back to the same thing.
“When you can dominate the line of scrimmage, you control the game. And Miami can do that.”
