This is a terrible matchup for Florida State on both sides of the ball, and they know it.
That’s how former Hurricanes wide receiver Ahmmon Richards closed our breakdown, and I went looking for a number that argued with him. Pick any column you want, they all point the same direction.
We're fourth in the nation in scoring at 42.8 points a game and they're 91st in scoring defense, giving up 29. We're fifth in yards per play and they're 117th in yards per play allowed. Through the air we're sixth at 9.6 yards per attempt, and they're 115th, allowing 8.5.
SMU threw all over them. Alabama threw on them. Louisville didn't even need to, because Louisville ran for roughly 400 yards.
One number that'll surprise people: we're 29th in sack rate allowed at 3.7 percent. Everybody spent the weekend talking about Georgia's and Alabama's offensive lines. We're ahead of both. Yes, the competition matters.
AR's read is simple: "This is a terrible matchup for Florida State with our offense and the way we score."
With the o-line starting to gel, the running game is coming alive, and that's a scary sight for this FSU team.
"I feel like Dawson and that DC have an internal kind of little beef, competition, whatever you want to call it," he said.
When we play Florida State, the shot plays and the trick stuff tend to come out. He's expecting more of it Saturday.
Beating FSU's pass rush isn't complicated either.
"Their defense is not good," AR said. "They can create some sacks if your quarterback can't throw the football."
Darian Mensah can throw the football.
In 2024, with Cam Ward chasing a Heisman, they sat in a soft shell. They weren't going to let Ward win the trophy on our field so they lost slow.
Last year they flipped it and sold out to stop the run. Carson Beck made them pay with the best downfield passing game we had all season.
This year AR thinks the plan is one name. "Don't allow Malachi Toney to beat us," he said.
Expect it to look like Clemson: bracket coverage, a jam at the line, a safety over the top and one-on-one on the outside.
Here's the problem with that plan. Clemson tried it and it didn't work for them either.
And Mali lives for this game, two of his best plays last season got called back, and one of them was against FSU, the stiff-arm where he took it down the sideline. AR expects a chip on his shoulder after all the noise from Clemson.
"I think he gets back to striking the Heisman pose a little bit."
FSU is 44th in scoring at 30.4 a game and we're first in the country in scoring defense at 10.5. They're 52nd in yards per play at 5.7, and we're ninth, allowing 4.3. They can throw it a little, 41st in yards per attempt but we're 18th in yards per attempt allowed, and we did that with two starting corners out.
The run game is where it ends. FSU is 49th at 4.6 a carry. We're first in the nation, allowing 1.9. One point nine.
The matchup I'd circle is their offensive line against our edge. FSU is 120th in sack percentage allowed at 9.93 percent and our pass rush is 25th at 8.14 percent. Our rankinga undersells it, because teams are throwing a ton of quick stuff against us.
Ashton Daniels holds the ball. That's not going to work Saturday.
What we do best is what they want to do. They want to run it and set up shots off of it.
"They're going to have to beat us with explosive plays, and they don't have it." We just saw Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate in the playoffs. Nobody on FSU's receiver depth chart makes us lose sleep.
The nicest things we could say about Florida State all segment was that Ousmane Kromah is a pretty good running back.
We just watched teams go down as underdogs all weekend, you saw what the Red River game did. FSU is going to show up with nothing to lose and a chip on its shoulder being a nearly 22 point underdog.
I think the first couple of drives are competitive. If FSU hits early, both sides could trade shots all night. But if one team is going to get demoralized, it's not us. They're the ones with the coach on the hot seat, they're the ones already carrying losses. If we execute early, I think they fold faster than people expect.
And remember the bigger picture. Everybody wants to talk about Notre Dame as the kind of game this one used to be. You only get to that kind of game in November by winning this kind of game in October.
AR is breaking down the FSU film on Wednesday, and we've got content every day this week leading into Saturday. Subscribe to the CanesInsight channel and hit the bell so you don't miss any of it.
That’s how former Hurricanes wide receiver Ahmmon Richards closed our breakdown, and I went looking for a number that argued with him. Pick any column you want, they all point the same direction.
Our offense vs. their defense
It immediately gets ugly for them.We're fourth in the nation in scoring at 42.8 points a game and they're 91st in scoring defense, giving up 29. We're fifth in yards per play and they're 117th in yards per play allowed. Through the air we're sixth at 9.6 yards per attempt, and they're 115th, allowing 8.5.
SMU threw all over them. Alabama threw on them. Louisville didn't even need to, because Louisville ran for roughly 400 yards.
One number that'll surprise people: we're 29th in sack rate allowed at 3.7 percent. Everybody spent the weekend talking about Georgia's and Alabama's offensive lines. We're ahead of both. Yes, the competition matters.
AR's read is simple: "This is a terrible matchup for Florida State with our offense and the way we score."
With the o-line starting to gel, the running game is coming alive, and that's a scary sight for this FSU team.
Dawson vs. Tony White
AR expects us to come out swinging, and he thinks there's something personal in it."I feel like Dawson and that DC have an internal kind of little beef, competition, whatever you want to call it," he said.
When we play Florida State, the shot plays and the trick stuff tend to come out. He's expecting more of it Saturday.
Beating FSU's pass rush isn't complicated either.
"Their defense is not good," AR said. "They can create some sacks if your quarterback can't throw the football."
Darian Mensah can throw the football.
How FSU will try to defend us
Florida State has tried two different answers the last two years.In 2024, with Cam Ward chasing a Heisman, they sat in a soft shell. They weren't going to let Ward win the trophy on our field so they lost slow.
Last year they flipped it and sold out to stop the run. Carson Beck made them pay with the best downfield passing game we had all season.
This year AR thinks the plan is one name. "Don't allow Malachi Toney to beat us," he said.
Expect it to look like Clemson: bracket coverage, a jam at the line, a safety over the top and one-on-one on the outside.
Here's the problem with that plan. Clemson tried it and it didn't work for them either.
And Mali lives for this game, two of his best plays last season got called back, and one of them was against FSU, the stiff-arm where he took it down the sideline. AR expects a chip on his shoulder after all the noise from Clemson.
"I think he gets back to striking the Heisman pose a little bit."
Their offense vs. our defense
On paper this is the tighter side. FSU's offense is better than its defense but that's not saying much.FSU is 44th in scoring at 30.4 a game and we're first in the country in scoring defense at 10.5. They're 52nd in yards per play at 5.7, and we're ninth, allowing 4.3. They can throw it a little, 41st in yards per attempt but we're 18th in yards per attempt allowed, and we did that with two starting corners out.
The run game is where it ends. FSU is 49th at 4.6 a carry. We're first in the nation, allowing 1.9. One point nine.
The matchup I'd circle is their offensive line against our edge. FSU is 120th in sack percentage allowed at 9.93 percent and our pass rush is 25th at 8.14 percent. Our rankinga undersells it, because teams are throwing a ton of quick stuff against us.
Ashton Daniels holds the ball. That's not going to work Saturday.
What we do best is what they want to do. They want to run it and set up shots off of it.
"They're going to have to beat us with explosive plays, and they don't have it." We just saw Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate in the playoffs. Nobody on FSU's receiver depth chart makes us lose sleep.
The nicest things we could say about Florida State all segment was that Ousmane Kromah is a pretty good running back.
The only real danger
It's a rivalry game, and nobody on our side should pretend otherwise.We just watched teams go down as underdogs all weekend, you saw what the Red River game did. FSU is going to show up with nothing to lose and a chip on its shoulder being a nearly 22 point underdog.
I think the first couple of drives are competitive. If FSU hits early, both sides could trade shots all night. But if one team is going to get demoralized, it's not us. They're the ones with the coach on the hot seat, they're the ones already carrying losses. If we execute early, I think they fold faster than people expect.
And remember the bigger picture. Everybody wants to talk about Notre Dame as the kind of game this one used to be. You only get to that kind of game in November by winning this kind of game in October.
AR is breaking down the FSU film on Wednesday, and we've got content every day this week leading into Saturday. Subscribe to the CanesInsight channel and hit the bell so you don't miss any of it.
