Our friend @Lance Roffers sat down with the CanesInSight Podcast to analyze the Ole Miss/Miami. Here is a summary of some of his key things to watch tonight:
Q: Let’s get into it here with Ole Miss. What is the headline of this matchup?
Lance Roffers: “Ole Miss is the best offense Miami has played, and I don’t think it’s particularly close. This is not just a good offense, it’s a structurally difficult offense. They make it hard for you to get to the quarterback, and they make it hard for you to get off the field.”
Q: Why is this such a difficult offense for Miami’s pass rush?
Roffers: “They do a great job of neutralizing pass rush through scheme. They get the ball out quickly, they simplify the quarterback’s reads, and they give him answers before the snap. That means guys like Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor don’t get to just tee off the way they usually do. You have to earn every pass-rush rep against this offense.”
Q: You compared this more to Louisville than SMU. Why?
Roffers: “Louisville was similar in that they use short passing, numbers, and simple reads to let the quarterback play fast. Ole Miss also adds tempo, like SMU, but stylistically it feels closer to Louisville because everything is built around getting the ball out and staying on schedule. They don’t need to hold the ball to hurt you.”
Q: What went wrong in the Louisville game that Miami must avoid here?
Roffers: “Louisville got out to a fast start and forced Miami into catch-up mode. That took Miami out of its identity. Miami wants to pound the ball, wear you down, control the clock, and then close you out with the four-minute offense. When you fall behind, you lose that advantage. Against Ole Miss, getting behind early is extremely dangerous.”
Roffers: “Ole Miss relentlessly motions into the boundary. They don’t want to live in the field. They want to live on the short side of the formation, and they do it on purpose.”
Q: Why does that matter?
Roffers: “A lot of defenses set their strength field versus boundary. When Ole Miss motions into the boundary and you don’t reset your strength, you’re automatically outnumbered. You’re six on five or worse. They know that, and they exploit it.”
Q: How does Miami counter that?
Roffers: “Miami resets to run and pass strength. When Ole Miss motions, Miami will roll a safety or a star like Keionte Scott to even the numbers. But now that puts pressure on your tackling and on your communication, especially to the boundary.”
Q: Why does Ole Miss run screens into the boundary instead of the field?
Roffers: “Because there’s less space for defenders to avoid blocks. When you throw a screen to the boundary, the blockers get to the defenders faster, and the defenders have less room to maneuver. Ole Miss knows where they’re going, and you don’t.”
Roffers: “They will run pin-and-pull at you until you stop it. And if you don’t stop it, they will keep running it. They don’t outsmart themselves. They will press the bruise.”
Q: How bad can the numbers get?
Roffers: “Against South Carolina they were running seven on five because South Carolina never reset their strength. That is a nightmare for a defense.”
Q: What is the key for Miami’s front?
Roffers: “The nose has to pin so the Mike linebacker can run free to the boundary. If that Mike is blocked, you’re going to get gashed on screens and pin-and-pull runs.”
Q: How does tempo factor in?
Roffers: “Once Ole Miss gets you in a bad look, they go fast. They trap you in personnel, they wear you down, and then the explosives come.”
Roffers: “Now you’re light to the field and you’re one-on-one. That’s when they hit the tight end seams and vertical shots. Their tight end is one of the best seam threats in college football.”
Q: Why is that so dangerous?
Roffers: “Once you overfit, there is nobody left to help. Their receivers are interchangeable speed guys, and the tight end will run right through the middle of your coverage.”
Roffers: “You have to surf and contain. You cannot lose outside leverage. If you let Chambliss escape, you are dead.”
Q: What does surf technique mean?
Roffers: “You stay square, slide down the line, keep your eyes on the quarterback, and stay outside. You can’t crash. If you crash, he will pull it and beat you.”
Roffers: “They love drive out of bunch. Shallow cross, dig behind it, clear-out, and a checkdown. It forces defenders to trade assignments, and most teams get picked or out-leveraged.”
Q: How do you defend it?
Roffers: “You need a rat in the middle. You need hook defenders who can robot under the dig. Miami runs poach and solo, which helps, but if you don’t execute, they’ll just keep hitting it.”
Roffers: “They’re a 4-2-5 sim-pressure team. They drop rushers, they disguise, and they try to make you hold the ball. It’s bend-don’t-break because they know they don’t have elite personnel.”
Q: How does Miami attack that?
Roffers: “Three-level floods to the pressure side. Make that dropping defensive lineman choose wrong. Bunch switch with a seam alert. Middle-of-field throws. And glances behind the overhang when they buzz their defenders.”
Q: What about the run game?
Roffers: “You have to take the dare. When they play six in the box, Miami has to run inside zone, duo, and C-gap insert. You cannot abandon who you are.”
Q: Would you use tempo?
Roffers: “Absolutely. If you let them get into their sim-pressure menu, you’re helping them. They are not good enough to stop you if you keep them vanilla.”
Roffers: “Ole Miss is going to score. They’re too good not to. I think they get to 28. But I think Miami controls the game just enough, hits enough plays, and wins 34-28. I think Miami is going to play for a national championship.”
Q: Let’s get into it here with Ole Miss. What is the headline of this matchup?
Lance Roffers: “Ole Miss is the best offense Miami has played, and I don’t think it’s particularly close. This is not just a good offense, it’s a structurally difficult offense. They make it hard for you to get to the quarterback, and they make it hard for you to get off the field.”
Q: Why is this such a difficult offense for Miami’s pass rush?
Roffers: “They do a great job of neutralizing pass rush through scheme. They get the ball out quickly, they simplify the quarterback’s reads, and they give him answers before the snap. That means guys like Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor don’t get to just tee off the way they usually do. You have to earn every pass-rush rep against this offense.”
Q: You compared this more to Louisville than SMU. Why?
Roffers: “Louisville was similar in that they use short passing, numbers, and simple reads to let the quarterback play fast. Ole Miss also adds tempo, like SMU, but stylistically it feels closer to Louisville because everything is built around getting the ball out and staying on schedule. They don’t need to hold the ball to hurt you.”
Q: What went wrong in the Louisville game that Miami must avoid here?
Roffers: “Louisville got out to a fast start and forced Miami into catch-up mode. That took Miami out of its identity. Miami wants to pound the ball, wear you down, control the clock, and then close you out with the four-minute offense. When you fall behind, you lose that advantage. Against Ole Miss, getting behind early is extremely dangerous.”
Ole Miss’s Boundary Obsession
Q: What’s the biggest schematic tendency fans should be watching?Roffers: “Ole Miss relentlessly motions into the boundary. They don’t want to live in the field. They want to live on the short side of the formation, and they do it on purpose.”
Q: Why does that matter?
Roffers: “A lot of defenses set their strength field versus boundary. When Ole Miss motions into the boundary and you don’t reset your strength, you’re automatically outnumbered. You’re six on five or worse. They know that, and they exploit it.”
Q: How does Miami counter that?
Roffers: “Miami resets to run and pass strength. When Ole Miss motions, Miami will roll a safety or a star like Keionte Scott to even the numbers. But now that puts pressure on your tackling and on your communication, especially to the boundary.”
Q: Why does Ole Miss run screens into the boundary instead of the field?
Roffers: “Because there’s less space for defenders to avoid blocks. When you throw a screen to the boundary, the blockers get to the defenders faster, and the defenders have less room to maneuver. Ole Miss knows where they’re going, and you don’t.”
How Ole Miss Runs You Over
Q: What happens if Miami doesn’t fit the boundary correctly?Roffers: “They will run pin-and-pull at you until you stop it. And if you don’t stop it, they will keep running it. They don’t outsmart themselves. They will press the bruise.”
Q: How bad can the numbers get?
Roffers: “Against South Carolina they were running seven on five because South Carolina never reset their strength. That is a nightmare for a defense.”
Q: What is the key for Miami’s front?
Roffers: “The nose has to pin so the Mike linebacker can run free to the boundary. If that Mike is blocked, you’re going to get gashed on screens and pin-and-pull runs.”
Q: How does tempo factor in?
Roffers: “Once Ole Miss gets you in a bad look, they go fast. They trap you in personnel, they wear you down, and then the explosives come.”
The Explosive Counterpunch
Q: What happens when defenses overcommit to stopping the boundary runs?Roffers: “Now you’re light to the field and you’re one-on-one. That’s when they hit the tight end seams and vertical shots. Their tight end is one of the best seam threats in college football.”
Q: Why is that so dangerous?
Roffers: “Once you overfit, there is nobody left to help. Their receivers are interchangeable speed guys, and the tight end will run right through the middle of your coverage.”
Containing the Quarterback
Q: What is absolutely non-negotiable against their quarterback run game?Roffers: “You have to surf and contain. You cannot lose outside leverage. If you let Chambliss escape, you are dead.”
Q: What does surf technique mean?
Roffers: “You stay square, slide down the line, keep your eyes on the quarterback, and stay outside. You can’t crash. If you crash, he will pull it and beat you.”
Ole Miss’s Drive Concept
Q: What’s Ole Miss’s go-to third-down call?Roffers: “They love drive out of bunch. Shallow cross, dig behind it, clear-out, and a checkdown. It forces defenders to trade assignments, and most teams get picked or out-leveraged.”
Q: How do you defend it?
Roffers: “You need a rat in the middle. You need hook defenders who can robot under the dig. Miami runs poach and solo, which helps, but if you don’t execute, they’ll just keep hitting it.”
When Miami Has the Ball
Q: What kind of defense does Ole Miss play?Roffers: “They’re a 4-2-5 sim-pressure team. They drop rushers, they disguise, and they try to make you hold the ball. It’s bend-don’t-break because they know they don’t have elite personnel.”
Q: How does Miami attack that?
Roffers: “Three-level floods to the pressure side. Make that dropping defensive lineman choose wrong. Bunch switch with a seam alert. Middle-of-field throws. And glances behind the overhang when they buzz their defenders.”
Q: What about the run game?
Roffers: “You have to take the dare. When they play six in the box, Miami has to run inside zone, duo, and C-gap insert. You cannot abandon who you are.”
Q: Would you use tempo?
Roffers: “Absolutely. If you let them get into their sim-pressure menu, you’re helping them. They are not good enough to stop you if you keep them vanilla.”
Prediction
Q: How do you see it playing out?Roffers: “Ole Miss is going to score. They’re too good not to. I think they get to 28. But I think Miami controls the game just enough, hits enough plays, and wins 34-28. I think Miami is going to play for a national championship.”
