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'It worries me how much I like [Miami]', "The Bear" Chris Fallica joins Hurricade 2025

Sebastian Font
4 min read


"The Bear", Chris Fallica, joined CanesInSight's 2025 Hurricade yesterday afternoon and used his betting expertise to break down MHere's what he had to say:

On the narrative of the dropoff from Riley Leonard to CJ Carr:

 Anytime you've got an experienced quarterback who had been through the wars and is got some mobility. I like that type of player. I don't think Riley Leonard got nearly the credit that he deserved in that Notre Dame offense, Lester. I think that so much of it was just assumed its the run game with Love, it's the offensive line.

On CJ Carr specifically:

 It seems to me that there's a little bit of an untold story here, that there's more going on behind the scenes.

It seems like they really wanted Carr to win the job, but it seems like he really didn't potentially do enough to really grab the bull by the horns and win the job.

I wonder if this is a situation where, the NIL package came into play and it's like:

'Hey look, we don't name this guy the starter we're gonna look bad that we invested all these funds and resources into him. And then if he's not the starter, he may bolt and take off.'

So I think there was a little bit more to play than just Marcus Freeman saying, my gut told me to take CJ Carr. I think there were politics in their concern that if Carr wasn't the starting quarterback, that it could lead them down a road where they may not have him on the roster moving forward.

Miami v Notre Dame Analysis:

 It does feel like the wrong team's favorite.

I think part of the problem early in the year is the inability of odds makers to really have a gauge on the value to assign to Carson Beck being the starting quarterback, the value to assign completely revamped secondary. What's a numerical we can put on that?

I think if you look it the most important position on the field is quarterback. Miami has a guy who started 30 games in the SEC and Notre Dame has a freshman going on the road and what is gonna be a completely amped up atmosphere at Hard Rock.

I know people kind of give Miami a lot of **** for a lack of a home field advantage every now and then, but for a big game like those games in 2017 against Notre Dame and Virginia Tech they got it.

I can't wait to watch the game on Sunday, I think Miami will win and it worries me how much that I like them.

On the narrative surrounding Carson Beck:

 It's bizarre. I think people forget how good he was in 2023.

Look at the drops that they had at Wide receiver last year, look at the injuries they had across the board, it's a weird narrative that it seems like so many people are just buying what's coming from outta coming outta Athens, Georgia.

Like, 'oh, Georgia's gonna be betterwithout Carson Beck', they are? We have no idea if Gunnar Stockton can play.

Parity in College Football:
 Yeah, I really wasn't sure how the expanded playoff and how the NIL and collective was really going to level the field. I thought it would just be a case of the bigger teams just having the most money and stack the rosters, but I was wrong.

It has been great for the sport. You've had teams make runs: SMU get to the playoff, Arizona State. I think we've seen the possibility of getting to a playoff has really motivated and energized a lot of alumni bases and a lot of fan bases and a lot of athletic departments and booster clubs and donors.

Now that's not saying a team like SMU or Indiana can win a national championship, but to get to the playoff I think showed there was a lot more excitement for that.

Even on the national championship level, you gotta go back to like 2016 to find the last time this many teams got first place votes in the AP preseason poll. That has made it very hard to pick a national championship.
 

Comments (19)

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DMoney said:
The CJ Carr stuff in here caused me to raise my eyebrow. Brett McMurphy said similar.
Click to expand...

Said it all week. The number of first-time starters who have played very well, on the road in Week 1 of their first season, against a decent opponent (not ready to anoint Miami's defense yet, but I think we can say with almost certainty that it'll be better than last year), is very small.

There are some....Jameis Winston comes to mind, at Pitt. Not apples to apples, but a P4 opponent, on the road, game 1. But people were going INSANE about Jameis that camp. He was absolutely cooking people, every single day.

So this kid has been, by all accounts, *** on his own practice field.

And now he's going to come into that asylum, on national TV, on a Sunday night when this is the only game in town, in his first start ever....and be a factor in why they win?

One of the ND dudes on here said they can win without him playing well, as long as he doesn't lose the game. Bruh, if that's true, then we are WAY worse than I thought, and they are WAY better. How many teams can win games with their QB playing a C+ game, on the road, against a Top 10 team?

Say what you want about the tie, but the drop-off from Golden Al to Chris ******* Ash is real. And significant. They're not beating us with their defense and backs if Carr is going to go 10/19 for 122 yards. That ain't happening.

He has to play well for them to win. I'm not saying he needs to complete 70% of his passes for 10 yards an attempt and throw it 35 times. But he has to play well for them to win. For the reasons above, my money is on that not happening.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Said it all week. The number of first-time starters who have played very well, on the road in Week 1 of their first season, against a decent opponent (not ready to anoint Miami's defense yet, but I think we can say with almost certainty that it'll be better than last year), is very small.

There are some....Jameis Winston comes to mind, at Pitt. Not apples to apples, but a P4 opponent, on the road, game 1. But people were going INSANE about Jameis that camp. He was absolutely cooking people, every single day.

So this kid has been, by all accounts, *** on his own practice field.

And now he's going to come into that asylum, on national TV, on a Sunday night when this is the only game in town, in his first start ever....and be a factor in why they win?

One of the ND dudes on here said they can win without him playing well, as long as he doesn't lose the game. Bruh, if that's true, then we are WAY worse than I thought, and they are WAY better. How many teams can win games with their QB playing a C+ game, on the road, against a Top 10 team?

Say what you want about the tie, but the drop-off from Golden Al to Chris ******* Ash is real. And significant. They're not beating us with their defense and backs if Carr is going to go 10/19 for 122 yards. That ain't happening.

He has to play well for them to win. I'm not saying he needs to complete 70% of his passes for 10 yards an attempt and throw it 35 times. But he has to play well for them to win. For the reasons above, my money is on that not happening.
Click to expand...
Agree 100% it is therefore absolutely crucial that we don't beat ourselves with turnovers and dumb penalties.
 
FrancisSawyer said:
Agree 100% hence it is absolutely crucial that we don't beat ourselves with turnovers and dumb penalties.
Click to expand...

For sure. I think both teams understand that. There's a reason this total started at 53 and is down to 49.5. I don't think either team is going to be willing to completely go insane on offense and feel they need to score 40 to win.

As I've said all week, I think first team to 24 gets it done. I expect an ugly game at times, some sloppiness (Beck still learning the receivers with no spring/limited summer, Carr being gun-shy and conservative, first game stuff), and physicality on both fronts. I'm with you though, you can really say this about any football game, turnovers matter maybe more than anything else, but in a game like this that's likely going to be somewhat low-scoring compared to most CFB games, don't give them anything easy. If they go 70+ yards on you for scores, tip your cap. Don't give them the ball inside your own 30 or 40 and gift them points. They're probably going to be hard to come by.
 
TooColdToHold said:
I listen to a lot of national podcasts and most have hinted that Carr was named the starter for political reasons.
Click to expand...

I think that's fair and probably likely, but it's only possible because Minchey stinks too.

As much "politics" as they might have been, if Minchey was lights-out and Carr sucked, Minchey would be starting. Who cares if Carr is ****ed or boosters are ****ed, we have a guy much better leading the team. We're good. And he's young too.

But when they both suck, then yeah, may as well give the more heralded kid the nod to not **** everyone off.

I really think both these kids were *** all camp, and the deciding factor was CJ Carr's name. But either way, neither kid is coming in here and lighting us up. Heatherman better be licking his chops right now, every **** exotic you got better be thrown at this kid. I trust our corners to cover their receivers, as improved as they likely are, for a few seconds. Fields and these other kids aren't just beating all our corners off the snap like drums. We're going to make it difficult. And while that's going on, pressure the **** out of this kid, confuse him, show him things he's never seen, drop a DT into coverage and bring the nickel, bring both backers through the A-gap, rush 8 on 3rd and long, have this kid's head spinning like the exorcist.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Said it all week. The number of first-time starters who have played very well, on the road in Week 1 of their first season, against a decent opponent (not ready to anoint Miami's defense yet, but I think we can say with almost certainty that it'll be better than last year), is very small.

There are some....Jameis Winston comes to mind, at Pitt. Not apples to apples, but a P4 opponent, on the road, game 1. But people were going INSANE about Jameis that camp. He was absolutely cooking people, every single day.

So this kid has been, by all accounts, *** on his own practice field.

And now he's going to come into that asylum, on national TV, on a Sunday night when this is the only game in town, in his first start ever....and be a factor in why they win?

One of the ND dudes on here said they can win without him playing well, as long as he doesn't lose the game. Bruh, if that's true, then we are WAY worse than I thought, and they are WAY better. How many teams can win games with their QB playing a C+ game, on the road, against a Top 10 team?

Say what you want about the tie, but the drop-off from Golden Al to Chris ******* Ash is real. And significant. They're not beating us with their defense and backs if Carr is going to go 10/19 for 122 yards. That ain't happening.

He has to play well for them to win. I'm not saying he needs to complete 70% of his passes for 10 yards an attempt and throw it 35 times. But he has to play well for them to win. For the reasons above, my money is on that not happening.
Click to expand...
AMEN!!!!!!!!!!
 
@OrangeBowlMagic

You mentioned the drop-off from Al Golden to Chris Ash and I agree. However there are some who say that the difference between the two is negligible because both are running Freeman's defense. What is your perspective on that?
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Said it all week. The number of first-time starters who have played very well, on the road in Week 1 of their first season, against a decent opponent (not ready to anoint Miami's defense yet, but I think we can say with almost certainty that it'll be better than last year), is very small.

There are some....Jameis Winston comes to mind, at Pitt. Not apples to apples, but a P4 opponent, on the road, game 1. But people were going INSANE about Jameis that camp. He was absolutely cooking people, every single day.

So this kid has been, by all accounts, *** on his own practice field.

And now he's going to come into that asylum, on national TV, on a Sunday night when this is the only game in town, in his first start ever....and be a factor in why they win?

One of the ND dudes on here said they can win without him playing well, as long as he doesn't lose the game. Bruh, if that's true, then we are WAY worse than I thought, and they are WAY better. How many teams can win games with their QB playing a C+ game, on the road, against a Top 10 team?

Say what you want about the tie, but the drop-off from Golden Al to Chris ******* Ash is real. And significant. They're not beating us with their defense and backs if Carr is going to go 10/19 for 122 yards. That ain't happening.

He has to play well for them to win. I'm not saying he needs to complete 70% of his passes for 10 yards an attempt and throw it 35 times. But he has to play well for them to win. For the reasons above, my money is on that not happening.
Click to expand...
Are we saying there is going be a Carr crash???

That Freeman is driving wreckless??

DEIW3lvLWJ5Cw.gif
 
Last edited:
FrancisSawyer said:
@OrangeBowlMagic

You mentioned the drop-off from Al Golden to Chris Ash and I agree. However there are some who say that the difference between the two is negligible because both are running Freeman's defense. What is your perspective on that?
Click to expand...

My perspective is it's Freeman's defense, no doubt about it. And his fingerprints are all over game-planning. But he doesn't call the plays, Ash does (and Golden did). So Freeman is very involved, but Al had those dudes in the right spots almost every snap. Chris Ash hasn't coordinated a defense since 2020.

When it's 3rd and 5 late in the 3rd quarter and we're going tempo, it's Ash's show. I feel a lot better about that than I would were it Al's.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I think that's fair and probably likely, but it's only possible because Minchey stinks too.

As much "politics" as they might have been, if Minchey was lights-out and Carr sucked, Minchey would be starting. Who cares if Carr is ****ed or boosters are ****ed, we have a guy much better leading the team. We're good. And he's young too.

But when they both suck, then yeah, may as well give the more heralded kid the nod to not **** everyone off.

I really think both these kids were *** all camp, and the deciding factor was CJ Carr's name. But either way, neither kid is coming in here and lighting us up. Heatherman better be licking his chops right now, every **** exotic you got better be thrown at this kid. I trust our corners to cover their receivers, as improved as they likely are, for a few seconds. Fields and these other kids aren't just beating all our corners off the snap like drums. We're going to make it difficult. And while that's going on, pressure the **** out of this kid, confuse him, show him things he's never seen, drop a DT into coverage and bring the nickel, bring both backers through the A-gap, rush 8 on 3rd and long, have this kid's head spinning like the exorcist.
Click to expand...
I don't see it with their run game either. ND fans have been beating their chest "No way Miami stops Love" Multiple times last year Love got stuffed all game. Georgia Tech, Louisville. **** even Navy and Virginia had him contained until he broke off a 50+ yarder. He didn't have a single game last year where he ran for 100+ and didnt have a 50+ yard run. Of course you have to give him credit for hitting those home runs, but let's not act like he's getting 6+ yards every touch. Take away his homeruns and he averages like 4 YPC. Relying on him hitting homeruns is like relying on your defense to get turnovers. Too fluky. Not to mention he was a complete non factor in their big games last year besides A&M.
 
Braduhley said:
I don't see it with their run game either. ND fans have been beating their chest "No way Miami stops Love" Multiple times last year Love got stuffed all game. Georgia Tech, Louisville. **** even Navy and Virginia had him contained until he broke off a 50+ yarder. He didn't have a single game last year where he ran for 100+ and didnt have a 50+ yard run. Of course you have to give him credit for hitting those home runs, but let's not act like he's getting 6+ yards every touch. Take away his homeruns and he averages like 4 YPC. Relying on him hitting homeruns is like relying on your defense to get turnovers. Too fluky. Not to mention he was a complete non factor in their big games last year besides A&M.
Click to expand...

Gotta disagree here.

Love is a very, very good player. I hate when people do the "if you take away this, player X isn't good". I know you kinda caveated it, but still. If you don't let Barry Bonds hit homeruns, he's not a great player. Uhhhhh.

Also, he was hurt a lot of the year last year. I'm not saying he's Barry Sanders, but the dude rips off 50 yard runs a lot because he's really ******* good. And their line gives him a couple opportunities a game to get to the 2nd level at full speed. It's going to happen against us. Hopefully not a bunch, but at least a couple times we're going to have a shot at this kid in the open field, and one defender is going to be the difference between a 10 yard gain and a 50 yard gain. Gotta get him on the ground. But I'm not going to **** on him, he's a fantastic player and he's going to make plays against us. We just gotta hopefully limit those explosives, like we're both saying. One way to do that is to penetrate quickly off the snap, which is something Heatherman preaches.

They're nowhere near the same player, but all we heard all week in 2017 was how much Josh Adams was going to run the ball down our throat. Problem for them was, he was getting hit in the backfield every time he touched the ball. We'll be cooking with gas if we can do similar to Love. But buddy is an elite back, make no mistake.
 
Their offense wasn’t that good last year with an experienced QB and an elite RB. Why do people think it’ll be good this year with a QB who’s never played CFB?

Like I said in the other thread, if their offense puts it on us, it’s time to reevaluate our expectations of how good Miami is and what this season will be.
 
How many times have we seen a team tout their best player as the reason they were going to win? The simple fact is that if you're pointing to a single person, you know deep down that you don't have a complete team. Love is a great player, but one great player can't carry an offense.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Gotta disagree here.

Love is a very, very good player. I hate when people do the "if you take away this, player X isn't good". I know you kinda caveated it, but still. If you don't let Barry Bonds hit homeruns, he's not a great player. Uhhhhh.

Also, he was hurt a lot of the year last year. I'm not saying he's Barry Sanders, but the dude rips off 50 yard runs a lot because he's really ******* good. And their line gives him a couple opportunities a game to get to the 2nd level at full speed. It's going to happen against us. Hopefully not a bunch, but at least a couple times we're going to have a shot at this kid in the open field, and one defender is going to be the difference between a 10 yard gain and a 50 yard gain. Gotta get him on the ground. But I'm not going to **** on him, he's a fantastic player and he's going to make plays against us. We just gotta hopefully limit those explosives, like we're both saying. One way to do that is to penetrate quickly off the snap, which is something Heatherman preaches.

They're nowhere near the same player, but all we heard all week in 2017 was how much Josh Adams was going to run the ball down our throat. Problem for them was, he was getting hit in the backfield every time he touched the ball. We'll be cooking with gas if we can do similar to Love. But buddy is an elite back, make no mistake.
Click to expand...
I never said he wasn't a great player, but the undisputed #1 RB in cfb? Yeah nah. That's like saying a safety is a All American and the best in the country cause he managed to get 10 INTs in the span of 3 games but none the rest of the year. It's not sustainable. I saw Love completely shutdown and be a non factor on multiple occasions last year against inferior competition. And if i remember right he was healthy most of last year, he got injured during their season finale and again in the playoffs. I know that injuries can happen to anyone, but if you're a RB who is injury prone, that affects how you should be viewed as a RB imo.
 
Beck vs Carr is huge !

Beck will make most every read on the ND Defence. Carr will not do the same for ND. Result: Carr is more likely to get sacked/fumble/throw a pick

Beck will have better pocket presence. He's been punched in the mouth before. Let's see how Carr reacts. He could panic or hold on too long which Beck is less likely to do.

The great Lou Holtz ,who we all love ,said it himself " When picking the winning team, the first thing you do is ask "Who has the better QB" Advantage Miami.
 
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