Duke by the numbers: play man and make Eget hold it

Two words came to mind after we broke down Duke: man coverage.

Their receivers aren't dynamic, neither is their quarterback. The whole offense is two things: get the ball to Nate Sheppard, and get the ball out fast.

But don't sleep on the spot. Duke has two losses, it's coming off back-to-back blowouts of Boston College and NC State, and we're a two-touchdown favorite coming off an emotional road loss. The two best players from Duke's ACC title team, Darian Mensah and Cooper Barkate, now play for us.

Our offense vs. their defense​

• We're third in the country in scoring at 41 points a game. Duke is fourth in scoring defense at 13.8. On paper, that's strength on strength.
• Third down is the matchup to circle. We're second nationally at converting third downs (53.5 percent). Duke's defense is second at stopping them (27.2 percent allowed). Somebody's streak ends Saturday.
• The passing game. We're ninth in yards per pass (9.2). Duke is 27th in yards per pass allowed (6.4). Another even matchup on paper.
• Protection is better than it felt. After Notre Dame, you'd guess our sack rate allowed is ugly. It isn't: 27th nationally, with sacks on 4.2 percent of dropbacks. Duke gets after the quarterback, though, 22nd in sack rate at 8.4 percent, even while blitzing less this year.
• We can run on them. Duke allows 3.3 yards per rush. We're at 4.6. But Duke hasn't seen a back like Mark Fletcher Jr. or Javian Mallory. Watching Duke against more physical offenses, we can push them around if we need to.
• Ball security. We're ninth nationally in giveaways (0.6 per game). Duke is 66th in takeaways.

Their offense vs. our defense​

• Duke scores, but isn't explosive. Duke is 44th in scoring at 29.4 points a game. We're 29th in scoring defense at 20.9. Some of our other numbers are ugly, but we've limited points to a degree.
• Third down, nobody's good. Duke converts 39.6 percent (64th). We allow 40.9 percent (81st). You've seen it all year, Notre Dame included.
• This is the matchup. Duke is 81st in yards per pass (7.2). We're 84th in yards per pass allowed (7.6). Weakness against weakness. Whoever wins this wins the game.
• Eget gets rid of it. Duke is second nationally in sack rate allowed at 1.6 percent. Notre Dame was first, and we didn't sack CJ Carr once. Duke's line isn't Notre Dame's. They live in the gun and throw it quick. We're 55th in sack rate at 6.9 percent. Corey Hetherman said in his press conference that teams are getting the ball out fast against us. Duke is exactly that kind of team.
• Strength on strength on the ground. Duke averages 4.9 yards per rush (27th). We allow 2.5 (fourth). Duke runs on 53.4 percent of plays. Teams only run on us 40.2 percent of the time, the lowest rate in the country, partly because passing works better and partly because running doesn't.
• Duke protects the ball too. Duke is tied with us for ninth in giveaways. We're 49th in takeaways.

The three questions: Can our run defense stop Sheppard? Can we make Walker Eget hold the ball? And which weakness wins, our pass defense or Duke's passing game?

Key players​

• Nate Sheppard (No. 20, RB) A true sophomore from Mandeville, Louisiana, 5-10 and 190. Not big, but extremely explosive with great acceleration. On film he's reversing field and doing everything. He has 1,189 rushing yards at 6.2 a carry with 17 touchdowns, plus 32 catches for 306 yards and four more scores. He's Duke's best receiver too. In Duke's losses, he didn't hit 100 yards. Stop him and you stop the offense.
• Jeremiah Hasley (No. 85, TE) He's a 6-3, 250-pound graduate student from Pittsburgh and a converted linebacker, so he's physical. He has 28 catches for 321 yards and a touchdown. He can run after the catch and stretch it a little. He's No. 55 on Bruce Feldman's Freaks List: a 7.23 L-drill, 4.28 shuttle and 425-pound bench. Not a speed demon, but big and quick-changing.
• Nick Morris Jr. (LB). The captain, another grad student, 6-foot-3 and 235 from Westlake, Texas. Fifty-one tackles, four for loss and two fumble recoveries. Duke's defense is full of solid guys, and he's the one running it.

Who Walker Eget is​

He's a veteran, and he doesn't run at all. Talent-wise, he's better than what we saw from Pitt and he's more experienced than what we saw from Clemson. Billy Edwards has a better arm and better mobility, but they're the same category. Davis Warren is the closest comp, and probably a slightly better pure passer.

He's well below CJ Carr and Gio Lopez, and less of a dual threat than Ashton Daniels.

Eget doesn't turn it over but he also isn't the most accurate passer. He was under 60 percent until he landed in this offense.

That offense matters. Duke's offensive coordinator, Jonathan Brewer, comes from the Rhett Lashlee tree. Tempo, quick throws, protecting the quarterback with scheme.

Think back to Tyler Van Dyke. Even behind a bad offensive line, he didn't get sacked much in the Lashlee system.

The game plan: man coverage​

• Make Eget hold the ball. Get the corners up in the faces of Duke's receivers and take away the free-release throws. We've watched veteran quarterbacks get into rhythm on quick throws and have their best games against us. Take that away.
• We saw it work. We played more man in the second half at Notre Dame, and the results were positive than the first half. Expect more of it the rest of the season, and especially this week.
• No running threat to worry about. The risk of man coverage is that defensive backs have their backs to the quarterback, which opens up scrambles. Eget isn't much of a threat there.
• The catch is the matchups. Man coverage might mean a linebacker on Sheppard and a linebacker on Hasley, Duke's two best players. Do you match safeties on them instead? That's the thing to watch. And you have to mix it up. Nothing should look the same all game against a veteran.
• Someone in the chat said not to be surprised if Duke screens us to death. Fair, screens to Sheppard are the danger. But I think we might blitz Eget a lot. If you get him with A-gap pressure, he isn't escaping the pocket to hurt you.

Personnel we'd like to see​

• Kamal Bonner. This could be his game. He isn't our most physical linebacker. He's more of a drag-down tackler, but he gets guys on the ground. Against a team that isn't overly physical, you want speed sideline to sideline and coverage on a tight end like Hasley.
• Omar Thornton as a blitzer. Someone in the chat asked about moving Thornton to linebacker. I don't know about that. But Thornton is a really good blitzer, and Eget beats you by throwing through the blitz, not by eluding it. Thornton coming off the edge might mean sacks, which we need.
• Vance Spafford. Daylyn Upshaw had the slot opportunity against Notre Dame and didn't play well. That was a major negative of that game. It won't be his last chance. Spafford is a legit 4.3 guy with good routes, hands and speed, and Duke doesn't have dynamic cover guys. At home, this is a much better matchup than Notre Dame's physical corners on the road

Hold the ball, win the game​

Duke is good, motivated and confident. It's also a team built to get the ball out before you get there, against a defense that hasn't gotten there consistently. Press the receivers, put a body on Sheppard and make Eget hold it one count longer than he wants to. Do that and our offense does the rest.

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