Mike Ryan went on the Dan Le Batard Show and said we'd lose another game before Charlotte. People lost their minds. He also said Notre Dame would beat us.
So he came on the show to explain himself and went toe to toe with D$.
Duke attacks exactly what we can't fix. Everyone points to the run defense and calls this a good matchup. Mike thinks that's surface-level scouting. Nate Sheppard is a top-three back in the country, and fine, that's strength on strength. But look at who leads Duke in targets: the tight end, Jeremiah Hasley, and Sheppard.
"There isn't a perfect team in the nation. But we've seen how teams are going to attack Miami."
The screen will always be there. Teams love matching up on our linebackers. And Duke's quarterback gets rid of it as fast as anyone, right behind CJ Carr in sack rate.
The Notre Dame comeback wasn't what it looked like. Mike's proud we fought. But the second-half surge came partly because an already depleted Notre Dame defense lost more key guys and had to change its looks. And the national story about the call hides something bigger.
"Miami got their butts whooped up front for most of that game," he said. "That's as bad as a Mario Cristobal team with a good roster has lost at the line of scrimmage since we turned this thing around."
The red zone is the worry. With Joshua Moore hurt, there's no big-bodied fade threat. The great eraser was Toney. He'd always find a way near the goal line. Without him, Notre Dame sold out for the run, and that short-yardage sequence may have decided the game.
Against a Manny Diaz defense that bends but doesn't break, Mike's afraid possessions that should end in seven end in three. He thinks the play calling got in its own head down there. Once you get stuffed twice, take the points.
The magic number is 35. When we hit it in regulation, we win. When we come up short, it's a sweat. With Toney, he trusts us to get there. Without him, he needs to see more than one half against a banged-up defense.
Since Clemson, every quarterback has played his best game against us. Billy Edwards made insane throws in the second half. Mike doesn't think Walker Eget's ceiling is high. He just doesn't want to find out what it looks like.
His fix up front is simple. If the rush can't get home against a quarterback this quick, get your hands up. "For the love of God, let's see some batted balls at the line of scrimmage," he said.
Mike's pick: Miami by seven to 10, in a grind. But if he had to bet, we lose one of the next two.
But watching Duke, the numbers don't match the tape.
Look at who they've played. NC State might be a bottom-five team in the country. Boston College won two games last year. Duke squeaked by Virginia and lost to North Carolina and Georgia Tech. The one quality win is 31-27 at Illinois.
Its defense doesn't force negative plays. It's the Manny Diaz story: concede yards, then dial up pressure when you need a stop. And we've seen Manny's defenses get exposed by good offenses.
Our offense is still elite. Even the advanced numbers say we should have won at Notre Dame. That stat stuff is overblown and Notre Dame was the better, more physical team Saturday, but it says something.
The offense is still really good without Toney, and that game was played with one hand tied. We couldn't run because we were down.
That's also why the pass protection looked so bad. Notre Dame knew we were throwing, so it pinned its ears back. Last year we ran all over that same front. Make them respect Mark Fletcher Jr. and it's a different game.
The Leonard Moore thing is overblown. People say Notre Dame's secondary was so beat up that our second half was fool's gold. Moore played 60 snaps against us, his third-highest total of the year. Meanwhile, we were missing our No. 1 offensive player.
Duke isn't the kind of team that beats us. The teams that hurt us have one of three things:
Virginia Tech is more worrying. It has explosive players at multiple spots and could turn into a shootout the way UNC did.
Whip the line. Duke's offensive line doesn't get sacked because the ball is gone, they play within a scheme. Ahmad Moten Sr. and Justin Scott need to dominate the way they did against Notre Dame's interior, and Wilson, Marquise Lightfoot and Armondo Blount need to win their matchups. It might not show up in the stat sheet. It needs to show up on film.
D$ pick: We score 30-plus, maybe 40. We put up 50-plus on Duke the last time, and that was a game Duke led at halftime. If Mensah's healthy and we run to the ball and tackle, we cover handidly.
Sheppard is the one guy on Duke who will make you miss. He cuts back, reverses field and hits top gear fast. He's not Jeremiyah Love explosive, but he runs hard for his size. If we don't swarm, he'll hurt us.
Scott and Moten have been the bright spot. Mike was really proud of their effort. His frustration with Scott is that the effort seems to need high stakes. When he dials it up, he's a first-round talent. Moten was really impressive.
Wilson is the question. Neither of us understands what's happened since Clemson. Lightfoot got neutralized Saturday, but he's still our best edge rusher.
Bryce Fitzgerald should roam. Mike's surprised we haven't forced more turnovers. A defense with flaws can cover them with big plays, the way Manny's units did here. That's why he wants Fitzgerald as a free-roaming safety with a chance to be a ball hawk.
Get Lofton the ball. He's great at setting up his blocks, and people don't realize how good he is with the ball in his hands. His role is brutal with ollision blocks, usually in motion at full speed. Saturday he basically had a car crash with an equipment crate on the sideline, and he still was our only real mismatch all night. That's why getting Gavin Mueller and Israel Briggs involved matters.
Once we're in the playoff, he thinks we're as good as anyone. Four defenses could give us a headache (Georgia, Texas, Indiana and Notre Dame), and he still thinks we outscore them if we play our best game.
But none of that matters if we slip now. Losing one of the next three isn't the end of the world. Losing this one, at home, after Notre Dame, without our best player, is where tight turns into panic.
Mike's right about that much. Win this one, control it, fix what you can and make the effort meet the moment.
The full debate is on the CanesInsight YouTube channel. Subscribe and turn on notifications for Duke week.
So he came on the show to explain himself and went toe to toe with D$.
Mike's take: this is a dogfight
Mike's starting point is that the problems are real, and losing Malachi Toney makes them worse. Some of them only showed up because Toney wasn't there.Duke attacks exactly what we can't fix. Everyone points to the run defense and calls this a good matchup. Mike thinks that's surface-level scouting. Nate Sheppard is a top-three back in the country, and fine, that's strength on strength. But look at who leads Duke in targets: the tight end, Jeremiah Hasley, and Sheppard.
"There isn't a perfect team in the nation. But we've seen how teams are going to attack Miami."
The screen will always be there. Teams love matching up on our linebackers. And Duke's quarterback gets rid of it as fast as anyone, right behind CJ Carr in sack rate.
The Notre Dame comeback wasn't what it looked like. Mike's proud we fought. But the second-half surge came partly because an already depleted Notre Dame defense lost more key guys and had to change its looks. And the national story about the call hides something bigger.
"Miami got their butts whooped up front for most of that game," he said. "That's as bad as a Mario Cristobal team with a good roster has lost at the line of scrimmage since we turned this thing around."
The red zone is the worry. With Joshua Moore hurt, there's no big-bodied fade threat. The great eraser was Toney. He'd always find a way near the goal line. Without him, Notre Dame sold out for the run, and that short-yardage sequence may have decided the game.
Against a Manny Diaz defense that bends but doesn't break, Mike's afraid possessions that should end in seven end in three. He thinks the play calling got in its own head down there. Once you get stuffed twice, take the points.
The magic number is 35. When we hit it in regulation, we win. When we come up short, it's a sweat. With Toney, he trusts us to get there. Without him, he needs to see more than one half against a banged-up defense.
Since Clemson, every quarterback has played his best game against us. Billy Edwards made insane throws in the second half. Mike doesn't think Walker Eget's ceiling is high. He just doesn't want to find out what it looks like.
His fix up front is simple. If the rush can't get home against a quarterback this quick, get your hands up. "For the love of God, let's see some batted balls at the line of scrimmage," he said.
Mike's pick: Miami by seven to 10, in a grind. But if he had to bet, we lose one of the next two.
D$'s take: the numbers don't match the tape
The spot could be better: A noon kick, a motivated opponent playing its best football and an emotional road loss behind us. Duke is pretty healthy too.But watching Duke, the numbers don't match the tape.
Look at who they've played. NC State might be a bottom-five team in the country. Boston College won two games last year. Duke squeaked by Virginia and lost to North Carolina and Georgia Tech. The one quality win is 31-27 at Illinois.
Its defense doesn't force negative plays. It's the Manny Diaz story: concede yards, then dial up pressure when you need a stop. And we've seen Manny's defenses get exposed by good offenses.
Our offense is still elite. Even the advanced numbers say we should have won at Notre Dame. That stat stuff is overblown and Notre Dame was the better, more physical team Saturday, but it says something.
The offense is still really good without Toney, and that game was played with one hand tied. We couldn't run because we were down.
That's also why the pass protection looked so bad. Notre Dame knew we were throwing, so it pinned its ears back. Last year we ran all over that same front. Make them respect Mark Fletcher Jr. and it's a different game.
The Leonard Moore thing is overblown. People say Notre Dame's secondary was so beat up that our second half was fool's gold. Moore played 60 snaps against us, his third-highest total of the year. Meanwhile, we were missing our No. 1 offensive player.
Duke isn't the kind of team that beats us. The teams that hurt us have one of three things:
- A great offense that can score with us.
- A dominant defensive line full of NFL players that can muck it up against our young offensive line.
- The ability to control the ball and keep our offense off the field.
Virginia Tech is more worrying. It has explosive players at multiple spots and could turn into a shootout the way UNC did.
Whip the line. Duke's offensive line doesn't get sacked because the ball is gone, they play within a scheme. Ahmad Moten Sr. and Justin Scott need to dominate the way they did against Notre Dame's interior, and Wilson, Marquise Lightfoot and Armondo Blount need to win their matchups. It might not show up in the stat sheet. It needs to show up on film.
D$ pick: We score 30-plus, maybe 40. We put up 50-plus on Duke the last time, and that was a game Duke led at halftime. If Mensah's healthy and we run to the ball and tackle, we cover handidly.
Where they agreed
Effort decides it. The tackling and swarming against Notre Dame was night and day from UNC. Even if guys broke the first contact, we were running to the ball, the thing Hetherman and Mario hammered all week.Sheppard is the one guy on Duke who will make you miss. He cuts back, reverses field and hits top gear fast. He's not Jeremiyah Love explosive, but he runs hard for his size. If we don't swarm, he'll hurt us.
Scott and Moten have been the bright spot. Mike was really proud of their effort. His frustration with Scott is that the effort seems to need high stakes. When he dials it up, he's a first-round talent. Moten was really impressive.
Wilson is the question. Neither of us understands what's happened since Clemson. Lightfoot got neutralized Saturday, but he's still our best edge rusher.
Bryce Fitzgerald should roam. Mike's surprised we haven't forced more turnovers. A defense with flaws can cover them with big plays, the way Manny's units did here. That's why he wants Fitzgerald as a free-roaming safety with a chance to be a ball hawk.
Get Lofton the ball. He's great at setting up his blocks, and people don't realize how good he is with the ball in his hands. His role is brutal with ollision blocks, usually in motion at full speed. Saturday he basically had a car crash with an equipment crate on the sideline, and he still was our only real mismatch all night. That's why getting Gavin Mueller and Israel Briggs involved matters.
One game at a time
Mike laid out the big picture. He thinks Toney is on the Brock Bowers plan and back for Charlotte.Once we're in the playoff, he thinks we're as good as anyone. Four defenses could give us a headache (Georgia, Texas, Indiana and Notre Dame), and he still thinks we outscore them if we play our best game.
But none of that matters if we slip now. Losing one of the next three isn't the end of the world. Losing this one, at home, after Notre Dame, without our best player, is where tight turns into panic.
Mike's right about that much. Win this one, control it, fix what you can and make the effort meet the moment.
The full debate is on the CanesInsight YouTube channel. Subscribe and turn on notifications for Duke week.
