If you take one thing from this breakdown, take this: Duke is going to give Nate Sheppard the ball.
Former Hurricanes wide receiver Ahmmon Richards spent the week on Duke's film against NC State, and he wrapped it up by saying the whole thing was basically a Nate Sheppard breakdown on offense.
Handoffs, wildcat, outside zone, inside zone, screens. When in doubt, it's No. 20.
The motivation is a given too.
Manny Diaz has taken the high road about Darian Mensah and Cooper Barkate leaving, and he's wished them well publicly. But Ahmmon thinks we all know Diaz would love nothing more than to get even.
Ahmmon's answer: yes, with an extra guy in the box to slow down the run. When we went man against Notre Dame, we were pretty sticky outside of the early fade on Bryce Fitzgerald. He expects us to be tighter on the perimeter this week.
Duke's receivers aren't robots. They can get open and catch the football. They just don't scare you deep.
The real issue is the numbers game. Duke runs a lot of inside zone with RPOs attached. It's the same offense you saw on Mensah's tape last year. If you have one fewer guy in the box, Duke runs it. If you don't have enough guys on the perimeter, the quarterback pulls it and throws it outside.
The worry with man is that Duke's two best players are its running back and its tight end, which means our bigger, slower linebackers in coverage.
Ahmmon's fix is to make it situational. Alternate man and zone by down and distance, and use different personnel packages.
He's a do-it-all back. He catches out of the backfield, runs between the tackles and gets from the A-gap to the perimeter in a heartbeat. And once he has space, Ahmmon hasn't seen anybody run him down. Our defensive tackles have been great at blowing up running lanes all year.
This week, we also have to tackle on the perimeter.
Why that third down mattered. The next play was an RPO. The linebacker tried to play both the handoff and the throw, and ended up in no man's land. Sheppard cut it back right off the backside of the zone into the spot the linebacker had just left. House call.
"If you're going to be out there, be out there. If you're going to be in the box, stay in the box," Ahmmon said. "Our linebackers cannot overflow this week at all, because he's a guy that can cut back."
Eyes and keys. Duke runs a motion-heavy outside zone with two pulling linemen, the same idea we ran last year when we'd motion Keelan Marion or CJ Daniels across to pull eyes. If our linebackers take one extra step with the motion, we're beat.
Here, a familiar face in Popo Aguirre didn't take the bait. He put a hat in the lane, forced Sheppard to stop his feet and saved what Ahmmon called an otherwise perfectly blocked touchdown.
The Lashlee tree. Duke's offensive coordinator, Jonathan Brewer, was Rhett Lashlee's right-hand man at Miami. It's a lot of inside zone and RPO action, and it spreads you out like SMU does. Duke condenses its receivers inside the numbers to pull bodies out of the box, then gets Sheppard one-on-one.
Ahmmon credits the scheme more than the overall talent. It makes defenses freeze, and frozen defenses either overflow or crash and give up the RPO outside.
The red-zone wildcat. When Duke gets close, look for wildcat. Three backs, a direct snap to Sheppard, a quick read on inside zone and a lead blocker. NC State had two guys in the hole who could make the play but Sheppard made both of them miss for the touchdown.
"If you think the play is dead because you're right in front of him, you're going to have a long day," Ahmmon said. "That's why everyone has to swarm to the football."
Play action, deep over. On first down, from a formation that screams run, Duke ran a deep post with a deep over route behind it. The tight end chipped and released to the flat to put the curl-flat defender in a bind.
Ahmmon's point for our secondary: with real communication, a corner in a deep third can pass off the post to the safety and jump the over route. Does Ahmmon trust our communication to do that right now? No. So for now, play your assignment.
The core is the same. It's a 4-2-5 that sends pressure and heats you up. The big addition is mug looks. Diaz didn't use them much back then, and now they're a big part of the gameplan. They make it hard for college quarterbacks to tell who's coming.
The bluff mug. One look Ahmmon expects to see Saturday is a single linebacker mugged up in the A-gap. It's really Cover 1 with a bracket.
The tell for Mensah: the mugger is only that close because the running back is on his side, so he can bluff the blitz and still drop to cover the back.
NC State beat it on third-and-4 with a rub route.
Ahmmon was asked about the receiver's job on a rub, when you know the ball isn't coming. Don't swipe the corner's hands. Let him jam you, let him grab you and pull him right into the defender. You're slow-playing it so the defender has to go over the top. Because the corner is the one holding you, there's no offensive pass interference.
Cover 2 invert. Look for a corner off five or six yards with his hips in and a safety sitting flat-footed. That's the tell. The safety rotates to the middle, and the defensive end drops into the flat. NC State beat it with a post to hold the safety, a back in the flat to hold the end and a corner route behind it.
The double mug that isn't. On a third-and-8, Duke showed a double mug. Ahmmon spotted that only two linemen were in four-point stances, which suggested the rest were bluffing. It was another Cover 2 invert.
The motion blitz. Late in the half, a tight end motion triggered a Duke blitz. With hat-for-hat numbers on the RPO, the receiver blocked whoever triggered first, and his teammate made one man miss. It was a walk-in touchdown on third-and-4 with 28 seconds left before halftime.
Ahmmon thinks the familiarity helps Mensah more than it helps Duke. Diaz can add wrinkles, but every coach has tendencies. And there may be small tells only a guy who lived in that building would notice.
The flip side is up front. Diaz will blitz, show mug looks, play Cover 2 and stunt. Ahmmon wants to see the offensive line pointing out the Mike linebacker and the blitzers, the way it did in the third and fourth quarters at Notre Dame. Ben Congdon and SJ Alofaituli are going to get tested.
"When you give Mensah time, we all know he'll dice you up," he said.
That leads to the pattern we've all watched. Davis Warren, Gio Lopez, Ashton Daniels, Billy Edwards and CJ Carr all looked completely comfortable against us. Ahmmon's fix starts with the run:
Up front, recognize Manny's mugs and let Mensah use a year of practice reps against this defense.
Dr. AR is back on the telestrator every week on the CanesInsight YouTube channel. Watch the full breakdown, subscribe and turn on notifications for game day.
Former Hurricanes wide receiver Ahmmon Richards spent the week on Duke's film against NC State, and he wrapped it up by saying the whole thing was basically a Nate Sheppard breakdown on offense.
Handoffs, wildcat, outside zone, inside zone, screens. When in doubt, it's No. 20.
The motivation is a given too.
Manny Diaz has taken the high road about Darian Mensah and Cooper Barkate leaving, and he's wished them well publicly. But Ahmmon thinks we all know Diaz would love nothing more than to get even.
Man coverage and an extra man in the box
We asked Ahmmon what we've been saying all week: is this a man-coverage game?Ahmmon's answer: yes, with an extra guy in the box to slow down the run. When we went man against Notre Dame, we were pretty sticky outside of the early fade on Bryce Fitzgerald. He expects us to be tighter on the perimeter this week.
Duke's receivers aren't robots. They can get open and catch the football. They just don't scare you deep.
The real issue is the numbers game. Duke runs a lot of inside zone with RPOs attached. It's the same offense you saw on Mensah's tape last year. If you have one fewer guy in the box, Duke runs it. If you don't have enough guys on the perimeter, the quarterback pulls it and throws it outside.
The worry with man is that Duke's two best players are its running back and its tight end, which means our bigger, slower linebackers in coverage.
Ahmmon's fix is to make it situational. Alternate man and zone by down and distance, and use different personnel packages.
Who Sheppard is on tape
"He is as advertised," Ahmmon said. "I see why he's in the Heisman running."He's a do-it-all back. He catches out of the backfield, runs between the tackles and gets from the A-gap to the perimeter in a heartbeat. And once he has space, Ahmmon hasn't seen anybody run him down. Our defensive tackles have been great at blowing up running lanes all year.
This week, we also have to tackle on the perimeter.
The film: Duke's offense
Third-and-10 on the first drive. Duke ran a clear-out route with a deep crossing route behind it from a three-by-one set. The NC State safety had help inside and still let the receiver cross his face. Contested catch, first down. Ahmmon tied it to JJ Dunnigan breaking the wrong way on UNC's sail route. Our safeties have to feel the down and distance.Why that third down mattered. The next play was an RPO. The linebacker tried to play both the handoff and the throw, and ended up in no man's land. Sheppard cut it back right off the backside of the zone into the spot the linebacker had just left. House call.
"If you're going to be out there, be out there. If you're going to be in the box, stay in the box," Ahmmon said. "Our linebackers cannot overflow this week at all, because he's a guy that can cut back."
Eyes and keys. Duke runs a motion-heavy outside zone with two pulling linemen, the same idea we ran last year when we'd motion Keelan Marion or CJ Daniels across to pull eyes. If our linebackers take one extra step with the motion, we're beat.
Here, a familiar face in Popo Aguirre didn't take the bait. He put a hat in the lane, forced Sheppard to stop his feet and saved what Ahmmon called an otherwise perfectly blocked touchdown.
The Lashlee tree. Duke's offensive coordinator, Jonathan Brewer, was Rhett Lashlee's right-hand man at Miami. It's a lot of inside zone and RPO action, and it spreads you out like SMU does. Duke condenses its receivers inside the numbers to pull bodies out of the box, then gets Sheppard one-on-one.
Ahmmon credits the scheme more than the overall talent. It makes defenses freeze, and frozen defenses either overflow or crash and give up the RPO outside.
The red-zone wildcat. When Duke gets close, look for wildcat. Three backs, a direct snap to Sheppard, a quick read on inside zone and a lead blocker. NC State had two guys in the hole who could make the play but Sheppard made both of them miss for the touchdown.
"If you think the play is dead because you're right in front of him, you're going to have a long day," Ahmmon said. "That's why everyone has to swarm to the football."
Play action, deep over. On first down, from a formation that screams run, Duke ran a deep post with a deep over route behind it. The tight end chipped and released to the flat to put the curl-flat defender in a bind.
Ahmmon's point for our secondary: with real communication, a corner in a deep third can pass off the post to the safety and jump the over route. Does Ahmmon trust our communication to do that right now? No. So for now, play your assignment.
The film: Manny's defense
Ahmmon practiced against Diaz's defense at Miami, so we asked how it's changed in the seven or eight years since.The core is the same. It's a 4-2-5 that sends pressure and heats you up. The big addition is mug looks. Diaz didn't use them much back then, and now they're a big part of the gameplan. They make it hard for college quarterbacks to tell who's coming.
The bluff mug. One look Ahmmon expects to see Saturday is a single linebacker mugged up in the A-gap. It's really Cover 1 with a bracket.
The tell for Mensah: the mugger is only that close because the running back is on his side, so he can bluff the blitz and still drop to cover the back.
NC State beat it on third-and-4 with a rub route.
Ahmmon was asked about the receiver's job on a rub, when you know the ball isn't coming. Don't swipe the corner's hands. Let him jam you, let him grab you and pull him right into the defender. You're slow-playing it so the defender has to go over the top. Because the corner is the one holding you, there's no offensive pass interference.
Cover 2 invert. Look for a corner off five or six yards with his hips in and a safety sitting flat-footed. That's the tell. The safety rotates to the middle, and the defensive end drops into the flat. NC State beat it with a post to hold the safety, a back in the flat to hold the end and a corner route behind it.
The double mug that isn't. On a third-and-8, Duke showed a double mug. Ahmmon spotted that only two linemen were in four-point stances, which suggested the rest were bluffing. It was another Cover 2 invert.
The motion blitz. Late in the half, a tight end motion triggered a Duke blitz. With hat-for-hat numbers on the RPO, the receiver blocked whoever triggered first, and his teammate made one man miss. It was a walk-in touchdown on third-and-4 with 28 seconds left before halftime.
Mensah knows this defense
This is the edge we keep coming back to. Mensah saw this defense every day for a year: spring, fall camp, every practice.Ahmmon thinks the familiarity helps Mensah more than it helps Duke. Diaz can add wrinkles, but every coach has tendencies. And there may be small tells only a guy who lived in that building would notice.
The flip side is up front. Diaz will blitz, show mug looks, play Cover 2 and stunt. Ahmmon wants to see the offensive line pointing out the Mike linebacker and the blitzers, the way it did in the third and fourth quarters at Notre Dame. Ben Congdon and SJ Alofaituli are going to get tested.
"When you give Mensah time, we all know he'll dice you up," he said.
How to make a veteran quarterback uncomfortable
Duke gets sacked less than anyone in the country except Notre Dame. Ahmmon explained why on film. The RPOs get the ball out fast. When Duke does throw, it's often max protection, seven blockers for a three-route concept. Defenses are so worried about Sheppard that nobody blitzes, and the play-action shot comes over the top.That leads to the pattern we've all watched. Davis Warren, Gio Lopez, Ashton Daniels, Billy Edwards and CJ Carr all looked completely comfortable against us. Ahmmon's fix starts with the run:
- Stop the run first. Get TFLs and get Duke off schedule. Ahmmon wants Eget throwing 40 times, not Sheppard running 40 times.
- Make him read the field. Force him into tight windows and second-guessing.
- Change the picture. If he sees Cover 3 before the snap and it's still Cover 3 after the snap, he knows exactly where to go. That predictability is why we've been carved up, like Daniels hitting Jasen Lopez on the seam.
- Play chess. Make them hesitate, and that's when you get picks, sacks and hits like the ones JJ Dunnigan put on the UNC and Pitt quarterbacks.
Stop the run, make him think
The answer this week isn't complicated. Load the box for Sheppard, press Duke's receivers, swarm to the ball and change the picture on a veteran quarterback who's used to us showing him exactly what we're in.Up front, recognize Manny's mugs and let Mensah use a year of practice reps against this defense.
Dr. AR is back on the telestrator every week on the CanesInsight YouTube channel. Watch the full breakdown, subscribe and turn on notifications for game day.
