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College Football Pick 'Em Article Week 1

College Football Pick 'Em Article Week 1

PhilWood
Current Record: 1-2

I’m back and I’m already disappointed in myself. What kind of person takes the under in an Arizona vs Hawaii game? As for Arizona -11, I really thought the Wildcats were going to be better in their second year under Kevin Sumlin. I was wrong, and because of it I’m starting week 1 of the season below .500. I was able to correctly pick the Canes/UF under, but it was at the expense of Miami not scoring the go-ahead touchdown in the waning seconds. So was my one win even a win? It was a rough Week 0.

Now it’s time to forget about the bad and assume this week will be the one where I stick it to Vegas. We have a full slate of games to take a look at from Thursday-Monday, so I can be picky. And hopefully better.

ACC

Utah State at Wake Forest

Wake continues to improve, and while Utah State is a solid team, they have to travel all the way across the country for the season opener.
BET: Wake -3.5

(2) Alabama Vs Duke

This is a statement game for Alabama after their terrible performance in the National Championship game against Clemson last year. With seven new coaches, I expect Saban to let loose and wait quite a while before playing his backups.
BETS: Alabama -35
OVER 57

Virginia Tech at Boston College

Last year, BC wasn’t as good as many expected them to be, but neither were the Hokies. I like BC straight up in a home upset, but I’ll take the 4.5 to play it safe.
BET: BC +4.5

(22) Syracuse at Liberty

These are two teams that love to score, and love to give up points. Liberty being the home team only makes me more confident that they will put up close to 30, while I think Cuse goes over 50 without a problem.
BET: Over 66.5

Boise State vs Florida State

FSU is coming off their worst season in recent memory. While that should inspire them to be better this year, I think James Blackman struggles against Boise’s defense in a really tough week 1 matchup.
BET: Boise State +5.5

Virginia at Pittsburgh

I love how the narrative went from Virginia winning the Coastal to Virginia originally starting week 1 as an underdog against Pittsburgh. The line has since adjusted to favor UVA, but what’s the deal? I like Perkins and the Cavs to cover this small spread.
BET: Virginia -2.5

(9) Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Louisville Cardinals

A lot of people think Louisville will be better this year, which really isn’t saying anything. The Cardinals probably come out fired up early in front of the home crowd, but eventually Notre Dame pulls away.
BET: Notre Dame -20

Top 25

Texas State at (12) Texas A&M

Texas State has a whole new coaching staff, and a lack of talent, while Texas A&M should have an improved defense and be able to score at will. I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends as a shutout.
BET: Texas A&M -33.5

Florida Atlantic at (5) Ohio State

Ryan Day takes over for Urban Meyer as head coach, and I believe that OSU will do exactly what they did under Meyer: Run up the score on lesser opponents.
BET: OSU -27.5

Northwestern at (25) Stanford

Stanford is 5-9 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite. I like them to get this win, but Pat Fitzgerald has this Northwestern team believing they can beat anyone.
BET: Northwestern +6.5

Louisiana Tech at (20) Texas

Louisiana Tech shouldn’t cause any problems for the Longhorns. Three touchdowns doesn’t seem like all that much, even if the Bulldogs defense is pretty good.
BET: Texas -20.5

Houston at (4) Oklahoma

This is a game that Oklahoma should win by putting up 63+ points. Houston is good enough to put up 35. The number is insanely high, but I think these teams clear it with no problem.
BET: Over 82.5


COLLEGE GAMEDAY


THURSDAY
Georgia Tech at (1) Clemson
We get two versions of College Gameday this week, with the first iteration seeing the crew head to South Carolina for the defending champs’ first game of the season. Geoff Collins has the privilege of taking over head coaching duties from Paul Johnson against Trevor Lawrence and the best team in the country. Poor guy. The Yellow Jacket offense is going to be different, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to score points. It really comes down to how much Clemson wants to score, and if and when they’ll call off the dogs. I’ll assume they do it before they hit 50 points, and I’ll assume the Yellow Jackets score 7 at most.
BET: Under 60

SATURDAY
(11) Oregon vs (16) Auburn
This should be the best game of the weekend, no questions asked. Oregon travels all the way to Texas to take on Auburn in a neutral site game that will definitely feel more like a home game for the Tigers. Auburn is favored, but do they have the better team? Last season we saw Washington in a similar situation almost knock off Auburn and they weren’t nearly as good as this Oregon team is. Huge advantage goes to senior Justin Herbert and his QB play, compared to freshman Bo Nix. I like Oregon to score enough to win straight up, but just in case this game comes down to a field goal and the travel advantage is huge, I’ll take the points.
BET: Oregon +3.5
 

Comments (14)

I'd take FSU to beat the spread against Boise State. As bad as they were last year, they still have more talent than a lot of schools including Boise State.
 
Phil,

Great calls on all of the games so far. I know you missed on Ari/Hawaii but the next picks should get you there.

I would take the plus 3.5 and UTAH State all day. The Jordan Love kid is a fringe 1st rounder. I know they have to travel across country but this game is closer than people think.

Boise State plus the points is straight money. They will beat FSU straight up in Jax.

The 82.5 on the OU/Houston game is about right. Definitely take the over.
 
I like that TAMU line as well. Was going to take that. The OSU line looked too good to be true when I saw it. Thought that was the 1st half line! Is there something about FAU I don't know? That's look criminally low.
 
Thanks for sharing, Phil.

I'm already in on BC+5 (I think they win outright as well, but decided to take the points instead of the higher payout), ND-20 (I think it's a blowout from start to finish) and UVA-135 ML (wasn't willing to risk the Hoos scraping out a close one and my bet losing). I love all 3 of those. I also think the semenholes beat Boise, but didn't bet it.
 
I’m still trying to figure out how Va Tech is allowed to schedule Old Dominion, Furman, and Rhode Island in the same season.
 
Texas State at (12) Texas A&M
Texas State has a whole new coaching staff, and a lack of talent, while Texas A&M should have an improved defense and be able to score at will. I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends as a shutout.
BET: Texas A&M -33.5
I usually try to stay out of these gambling threads, but I am at an all-day seminar and happen to be firing some bets in, including Texas State.

Texas State's new HC, Jake Spatival, had top 20 offenses at WVU the last 2 years (granted, Grier was good). He brought in a guy to run the offense who is highly respected spread offense guy from FCS, Bob Stitt.

They also return 10 starters on defense and are an experienced team.

But what put me over the top was A&M is playing Clemson next week. This is both a look ahead game, and a game where they should pull starters once they have a comfortable lead. Yes, they will want to get them reps, but those reps are not any better than they can get against their own scout team. They will look to stay healthy.

Texas State +33.5 for me.
 
I usually try to stay out of these gambling threads, but I am at an all-day seminar and happen to be firing some bets in, including Texas State.

Texas State's new HC, Jake Spatival, had top 20 offenses at WVU the last 2 years (granted, Grier was good). He brought in a guy to run the offense who is highly respected spread offense guy from FCS, Bob Stitt.

They also return 10 starters on defense and are an experienced team.

But what put me over the top was A&M is playing Clemson next week. This is both a look ahead game, and a game where they should pull starters once they have a comfortable lead. Yes, they will want to get them reps, but those reps are not any better than they can get against their own scout team. They will look to stay healthy.

Texas State +33.5 for me.

I would agree with this assessment 100% if these same 10 returning starters weren't on a 2-10 team just last year. Its tough to overlook that. Even with the new coaches do they have the talent to keep this under 5 TDs? (As Cane fans we learned that first hand against UF that flashy new offensive coaches only help so much. Need the horses too)

You did give me something to think about here as this was one of my safest bets. Now you got me thinking. LOL.
 
nice picks Phil.


I like Colorado -3- over Colorado St. I don't think CSU can handle Colorado's skill guys and should win easy.
 
I would agree with this assessment 100% if these same 10 returning starters weren't on a 2-10 team just last year. Its tough to overlook that. Even with the new coaches do they have the talent to keep this under 5 TDs? (As Cane fans we learned that first hand against UF that flashy new offensive coaches only help so much. Need the horses too)

You did give me something to think about here as this was one of my safest bets. Now you got me thinking. LOL.
Take a look here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...JNI8parhvPIPJa2j_7J6vU0pK5drFB6FZmVu/pubhtml#

Their defense wasn't the problem. And it is projected to finish No. 50 this year.

The offense is what needed a boost after finishing 126th in S&P. I'll take my chances with 2 respected offensive minds.

I would've loved to get this where it opened at 35.5, but I still think 33.5 is too many.
 
Notre Dame's line has gone from -20 down to - 18. Sadly, I already put in.
 

2022 Commits

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6'2"
185
Nashville, TN
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160
Lexington, MS
QB
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175
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180
Alabaster, AL
WR
6'1"
185
Mandeville, LA
MLB
6'1"
210
Manvel, TX
OT
6'7"
275
Sandersville, GA

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