forums

How good can Miami's offense be in '24? A statistical look at our recent additions

View as article
RightSaidFred said:
This is still a young team. We've had two top 10 classes in a row, which is good, but that means the most talented players on this team are sophomores and freshman.

Also, they added a lot of key pieces to this team (Ward, Martinez...), but there are still some holes and we're lying if we say there aren't. What happens if we have injuries to Ward or Martinez? Do we have the depth?

Then even with the starters, there's questions at C, LG, LB, DT, and most of all in the secondary.

IMO this team has a shot to make the playoffs but it's not like it's a sure thing based on the roster. Most of the best players are young and there are still holes that need another cycle or even two to plug.

Vegas has us at 9 to 9.5 wins, and I think that's pretty fair.
Click to expand...

In fairness, I believe everyone who has set high expectations has also set the qualifier “barring any serious injuries” or “injuries to Ward”
 
Advertisement
Rellyrell said:
Starting QB - Ward (Sr.)
Starting RB - Martinez (Jr.)
Starting C - Carpenter (RS - Sr.)
Starting RG - Cooper (Jr.)
Starting RT - Samson (RS - Fr.) or Bell (Jr.)
Starting LG - Rivers (RS - Jr.)
Starting LT - Mauigoa (So.)
Starting TE - McCormick (RS/RS - Sr.) or Arroyo (RS - Jr.)
Starting WRX - Brown (5th yr Jr.) or Horton (RS-So.)
Starting WRY - Restrepo (RS - Sr.)
Starting WRZ - George (Sr.)

Offense: 81% or 90% (pending on the RT position) are upper class men

Starting DE - Messidor (RS - Sr.)
Starting DE - Bain (So.)
Starting NT - Clark (RS - Sr.)
Starting DT - Barrow (Sr.)
Starting MLB - Mauigoa (Sr.)
Starting WLB - Bissainthe (RS. So.)
Starting CB - Hill (Jr.) or Brown (So.)
Starting CB - Porter (RS. Sr.)
Starting SS - Harris (RS So.) or Williams (RS So.)
Starting FS - Balom (RS - Jr.) or Taylor (RS Jr.)
Starting NB - Powell (RS - Sr.)

Defense: 81% or 90% (pending on the starting CB) are upper class men

Starting Punter - Joyce (So.)*
Starting Kicker - Borreagles (Sr.)
Place Holder - Joyce (So)*

*Sophomore from Australia, currently 23 yrs old

Here’s my issue w/ ur depth proposition:

QB Room - Who recruited Poffenger from the portal? Who recruited Williams & Judd as QB1’s, only, via the 2023 & 2024 classes?

OL - You guys have told us not to worry about the OL, b/c anything & anyone Mario or Alex want, to trust their eval, so I don’t wanna hear this. The C was recruited via the portal, and this entire OL group, w/ the exception of Ryan Rodriguez & Jalen Rivers were handpicked, & this includes transfers Bell, & Cristobal.

DT - We’ve had ample opportunity to bring in DTs. Per CIS, we loved Cook, & the once upon a time Gore (& b4 anyone say anything, the receipts r plastered over CIS).

LB - I think u just threw this one in, b/c I’m not sure where the ? marks r.

At the end of the day u’re post is full of excuses & goal post movement that may have “some” merit, but it’s more baseless than anything. I’m sick of the narratives.
Click to expand...
Nik Wallenda Hero GIF by Volcano Live! with Nik Wallenda
 
Combo said:
4.45 is blazing, even for a smaller RB. I doubt Martinez is anywhere near a legit 4.45.
Click to expand...
You get my point. Change it to 4.6, I don't care. I just hate seeing little backs get bumped down. One has to get to the secondary before thinking about outrunning anyone.
 
DTP said:
Yeah he’s probably closer to 4.54.
Click to expand...
Ok then. I'll take 4.54 at 230 over 4.25 at 180. Especially if the big dude has good vision, feet, and the ability to break arm tackles. 3 tenths of a second in the 40 means little unless you are in the open field. I know which one I want hitting the hole and trying to get to the secondary. I also know which one, as a defender, I don't want to see hitting the hole.
 
Rellyrell said:
Starting QB - Ward (Sr.)
Starting RB - Martinez (Jr.)
Starting C - Carpenter (RS - Sr.)
Starting RG - Cooper (Jr.)
Starting RT - Samson (RS - Fr.) or Bell (Jr.)
Starting LG - Rivers (RS - Jr.)
Starting LT - Mauigoa (So.)
Starting TE - McCormick (RS/RS - Sr.) or Arroyo (RS - Jr.)
Starting WRX - Brown (5th yr Jr.) or Horton (RS-So.)
Starting WRY - Restrepo (RS - Sr.)
Starting WRZ - George (Sr.)

Offense: 81% or 90% (pending on the RT position) are upper class men

Starting DE - Messidor (RS - Sr.)
Starting DE - Bain (So.)
Starting NT - Clark (RS - Sr.)
Starting DT - Barrow (Sr.)
Starting MLB - Mauigoa (Sr.)
Starting WLB - Bissainthe (RS. So.)
Starting CB - Hill (Jr.) or Brown (So.)
Starting CB - Porter (RS. Sr.)
Starting SS - Harris (RS So.) or Williams (RS So.)
Starting FS - Balom (RS - Jr.) or Taylor (RS Jr.)
Starting NB - Powell (RS - Sr.)

Defense: 81% or 90% (pending on the starting CB) are upper class men

Starting Punter - Joyce (So.)*
Starting Kicker - Borreagles (Sr.)
Place Holder - Joyce (So)*

*Sophomore from Australia, currently 23 yrs old

Here’s my issue w/ ur depth proposition:

QB Room - Who recruited Poffenger from the portal? Who recruited Williams & Judd as QB1’s, only, via the 2023 & 2024 classes?

OL - You guys have told us not to worry about the OL, b/c anything & anyone Mario or Alex want, to trust their eval, so I don’t wanna hear this. The C was recruited via the portal, and this entire OL group, w/ the exception of Ryan Rodriguez & Jalen Rivers were handpicked, & this includes transfers Bell, & Cristobal.

DT - We’ve had ample opportunity to bring in DTs. Per CIS, we loved Cook, & the once upon a time Gore (& b4 anyone say anything, the receipts r plastered over CIS).

LB - I think u just threw this one in, b/c I’m not sure where the ? marks r.

At the end of the day u’re post is full of excuses & goal post movement that may have “some” merit, but it’s more baseless than anything. I’m sick of the narratives.
Click to expand...

How does what you posted above contradict what @RightSaidFred posted? He said Mario signed Top 10 classes the last two years and they're still young and inexperienced. You said the starters are mostly upperclassmen. So you're in agreement with him then?

We all get that the portal and NIL change the build dynamic, and that Mario has been able to build a stronger team more quickly as a result. But it's not grounds up (yet), and there are still holes. You can call them excuses all you want. But this team is not yet at Alabama, Georgia or Taint level. Can it be Top 12, sure. But it's not a certainty, and that is not an excuse it's just facts..
 
Advertisement
grover said:
How does what you posted above contradict what @RightSaidFred posted? He said Mario signed Top 10 classes the last two years and they're still young and inexperienced. You said the starters are mostly upperclassmen. So you're in agreement with him then?

We all get that the portal and NIL change the build dynamic, and that Mario has been able to build a stronger team more quickly as a result. But it's not grounds up (yet), and there are still holes. You can call them excuses all you want. But this team is not yet at Alabama, Georgia or Taint level. Can it be Top 12, sure. But it's not a certainty, and that is not an excuse it's just facts..,
Click to expand...

He said the team is still young. No it’s not. It’s like some of u guys have built in excuses for everything, & this is why I continuously try to encourage u all TO WATCH CFB IN GENERAL & STEP OUTSIDE THIS ORANGE & GREEN GLASS HOUSE, b/c if u did, u will see that the excuses that r laid out is full of ****.
 
grover said:
How does what you posted above contradict what @RightSaidFred posted? He said Mario signed Top 10 classes the last two years and they're still young and inexperienced. You said the starters are mostly upperclassmen. So you're in agreement with him then?

We all get that the portal and NIL change the build dynamic, and that Mario has been able to build a stronger team more quickly as a result. But it's not grounds up (yet), and there are still holes. You can call them excuses all you want. But this team is not yet at Alabama, Georgia or Taint level. Can it be Top 12, sure. But it's not a certainty, and that is not an excuse it's just facts..
Click to expand...
Cant See Cheech Marin GIF
 
grover said:
How does what you posted above contradict what @RightSaidFred posted? He said Mario signed Top 10 classes the last two years and they're still young and inexperienced. You said the starters are mostly upperclassmen. So you're in agreement with him then?

We all get that the portal and NIL change the build dynamic, and that Mario has been able to build a stronger team more quickly as a result. But it's not grounds up (yet), and there are still holes. You can call them excuses all you want. But this team is not yet at Alabama, Georgia or Taint level. Can it be Top 12, sure. But it's not a certainty, and that is not an excuse it's just facts..
Click to expand...
But, Grover, that's a classic straw man.

I haven't read many opinions that we are or should be at Bama, Georgia, Taint level. I've read a lot of opinions that, given our schedule and our current team, we should win 10 or more games. It's contextual.

If we win 10 or more games, we're very likely Top 12. If we win 10 or more games, we're very likely in the ACCCG. If those things happen, then we performed how I and others think our personnel versus our opponents should perform.

How we compare to other elite teams or where we are in a broader process are just separate topics.
 
Rellyrell said:
Starting QB - Ward (Sr.)
Starting RB - Martinez (Jr.)
Starting C - Carpenter (RS - Sr.)
Starting RG - Cooper (Jr.)
Starting RT - Samson (RS - Fr.) or Bell (Jr.)
Starting LG - Rivers (RS - Jr.)
Starting LT - Mauigoa (So.)
Starting TE - McCormick (RS/RS - Sr.) or Arroyo (RS - Jr.)
Starting WRX - Brown (5th yr Jr.) or Horton (RS-So.)
Starting WRY - Restrepo (RS - Sr.)
Starting WRZ - George (Sr.)

Offense: 81% or 90% (pending on the RT position) are upper class men

Starting DE - Messidor (RS - Sr.)
Starting DE - Bain (So.)
Starting NT - Clark (RS - Sr.)
Starting DT - Barrow (Sr.)
Starting MLB - Mauigoa (Sr.)
Starting WLB - Bissainthe (RS. So.)
Starting CB - Hill (Jr.) or Brown (So.)
Starting CB - Porter (RS. Sr.)
Starting SS - Harris (RS So.) or Williams (RS So.)
Starting FS - Balom (RS - Jr.) or Taylor (RS Jr.)
Starting NB - Powell (RS - Sr.)

Defense: 81% or 90% (pending on the starting CB) are upper class men

Starting Punter - Joyce (So.)*
Starting Kicker - Borreagles (Sr.)
Place Holder - Joyce (So)*

*Sophomore from Australia, currently 23 yrs old

Here’s my issue w/ ur depth proposition:

QB Room - Who recruited Poffenger from the portal? Who recruited Williams & Judd as QB1’s, only, via the 2023 & 2024 classes?

OL - You guys have told us not to worry about the OL, b/c anything & anyone Mario or Alex want, to trust their eval, so I don’t wanna hear this. The C was recruited via the portal, and this entire OL group, w/ the exception of Ryan Rodriguez & Jalen Rivers were handpicked, & this includes transfers Bell, & Cristobal.

DT - We’ve had ample opportunity to bring in DTs. Per CIS, we loved Cook, & the once upon a time Gore (& b4 anyone say anything, the receipts r plastered over CIS).

LB - I think u just threw this one in, b/c I’m not sure where the ? marks r.

At the end of the day u’re post is full of excuses & goal post movement that may have “some” merit, but it’s more baseless than anything. I’m sick of the narratives.
Click to expand...

I'm just being real. Some of the portal adds were difference makers. Guys like Ward, Martinez, and maybe Brown. The rest are good enough to play here for now but not as talented as the young guys from the '23 and '24 classes. I mean, who has more upside, Justin Scott or Marley Cook?

The portal has its uses but the backbone of championship teams is based on high school recruiting, but the guys from '23 and '24 are young.

Also would say about depth - it's more important this year than ever. The reason of course is because of the 12 team playoffs. Used to be that you play 11 games and a bowl. Now, you play 12 regular season, a conference championship game, and as many as 4 playoff games. That's as many as 5 extra games. That means more injuries, and more reliance on depth and having guys you can rotate in.
 
Advertisement
TRick72 said:
In fairness, I believe everyone who has set high expectations has also set the qualifier “barring any serious injuries” or “injuries to Ward”
Click to expand...

True, but I just think depth is more important this year than it's ever been, because of the 12 team playoffs. That's a lot of extra games and so the teams that go deep in to the playoffs will either be very lucky with injuries or they will be the ones who are deep enough to be able to rotate guys and not see a dropoff.
 
Well first..we wont see a schedule as easy as the one we have for years. So we better take advantage of this gift that was given to Mario in a year where he HAS to show results. We will only have 1 preseason ranked team on this schedule. (FSU) Compare this to UFs schedule ( Napier is toast. I honestly think by years end they would have played 9 ranked teams. Maybe 10) The college football gods were looking down on Mario on this one with huge favor. 9 wins is ABSOLUTELY the floor.

And the only thing that can hold this offense back is Dawson and Mario. I hope they both know this too. Im hoping whoever cut the bulk of the check to bring in Cam Ward made it very clear to Mario that we arent bringing Cam here to be a **** game manager while Martinez gets 25-30 carries a game. Cam is here to give us an explosive offense and to put points on the board. Alot of points. End of discussion.
 
Jassid82 said:
Well first..we wont see a schedule as easy as the one we have for years. So we better take advantage of this gift that was given to Mario in a year where he HAS to show results. We will only have 1 preseason ranked team on this schedule. (FSU) Compare this to UFs schedule ( Napier is toast. I honestly think by years end they would have played 9 ranked teams. Maybe 10) The college football gods were looking down on Mario on this one with huge favor. 9 wins is ABSOLUTELY the floor.

And the only thing that can hold this offense back is Dawson and Mario. I hope they both know this too. Im hoping whoever cut the bulk of the check to bring in Cam Ward made it very clear to Mario that we arent bringing Cam here to be a **** game manager while Martinez gets 25-30 carries a game. Cam is here to give us an explosive offense and to put points on the board. Alot of points. End of discussion.
Click to expand...
You should see the 2027 schedule but I understand and agree with what you are saying. Just a FYI here is the 2027 scheudle.

Troy - Home
USCe - Home
Duke - Away
FSU - Away
Cal - Home
GT - Home
Louisville - Home
UVA - Away
NC St - Away
VT - Away
 
Jassid82 said:
Well first..we wont see a schedule as easy as the one we have for years. So we better take advantage of this gift that was given to Mario in a year where he HAS to show results. We will only have 1 preseason ranked team on this schedule. (FSU) Compare this to UFs schedule ( Napier is toast. I honestly think by years end they would have played 9 ranked teams. Maybe 10) The college football gods were looking down on Mario on this one with huge favor. 9 wins is ABSOLUTELY the floor.

And the only thing that can hold this offense back is Dawson and Mario. I hope they both know this too. Im hoping whoever cut the bulk of the check to bring in Cam Ward made it very clear to Mario that we arent bringing Cam here to be a **** game manager while Martinez gets 25-30 carries a game. Cam is here to give us an explosive offense and to put points on the board. Alot of points. End of discussion.
Click to expand...
The schedule has been pretty easy for the better part of 2 decades. The ACC is a **** conference and that didn't start in 2024.
 
Advertisement
RightSaidFred said:
I'm just being real. Some of the portal adds were difference makers. Guys like Ward, Martinez, and maybe Brown. The rest are good enough to play here for now but not as talented as the young guys from the '23 and '24 classes. I mean, who has more upside, Justin Scott or Marley Cook?

The portal has its uses but the backbone of championship teams is based on high school recruiting, but the guys from '23 and '24 are young.

Also would say about depth - it's more important this year than ever. The reason of course is because of the 12 team playoffs. Used to be that you play 11 games and a bowl. Now, you play 12 regular season, a conference championship game, and as many as 4 playoff games. That's as many as 5 extra games. That means more injuries, and more reliance on depth and having guys you can rotate in.
Click to expand...

U’re not being “real”, u’re being an enabler.

Let me give complete context -
From ‘21-‘24, our avg. total recruiting class rankings: 9.5

This is our schedule:
-UF (5-7 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 12th )
-FAMU (FCS)
-BSU (4-8 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 109th)
-USF (7-6 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 72nd)
-VT (7-6 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 46th)
-Cal (6-7 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 42nd)
-UL (10-4 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 34th)
-FSU (13-1 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 17th)
-Duke (8-5 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 61st)
-GT (7-6 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 49th)
-WF (4-8 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 70th)
-SU (6-7 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 59th)

Like, Got ****, what r we talking about out here? How much more of a talent advantage does Mario need over his opponents, blood? To make it even easier:

-Syracuse is breaking in a brand new, 1st time HC
-Duke is bringing in our sloppy seconds who everyone hated
-FSU done lost their team to the NFL & is bringing in everyone’s favorite punchline QB to start

Like, u’re being disingenuous af, and a pacifier if u think we shouldn’t expect 10+ wins this season. If TVD was the problem, he’s gone. If Gattis was the problem, he’s gone. If too many Manny eval players were the problem, they’re gone. Now if those weren’t the problems, then yeah, I will 100% agree not nan one of us should expect a 10 win season, but it was u mofos across CIS blaming TVD as to why we didn’t win 9 games last yr. HE’S GONE! STOP WITH THE EXCUSES! In life, u can literally excuse any and everything, the difference between those who thrive & those who remain behind is that the go-getters have ZERO excuses.

I’m sick of this fan base not requiring or wanting more. It’s maddening & soft af.
 
Last edited:
RightSaidFred said:
True, but I just think depth is more important this year than it's ever been, because of the 12 team playoffs. That's a lot of extra games and so the teams that go deep in to the playoffs will either be very lucky with injuries or they will be the ones who are deep enough to be able to rotate guys and not see a dropoff.
Click to expand...

Agreed but I don’t think many are setting “deep run in the playoffs” as the expectations. While we would all love it I think the general consensus has been more “win 10 games, win the ACC and make the playoffs”. I think most fans would agree those are reasonable expectations.
 
TRick72 said:
Agreed but I don’t think many are setting “deep run in the playoffs” as the expectations. While we would all love it I think the general consensus has been more “win 10 games, win the ACC and make the playoffs”. I think most fans would agree those are reasonable expectations.
Click to expand...

****, I’m not even saying win the ACC! Lol. I said winning 9 games + a bowl game = 10 wins on the season. That’s not being dogmatic or unreasonable. With this schedule?? Come on, bruh. Like, the goal post movement would’ve made the Buffalo Bills champions in 1991!
 
Advertisement
Rellyrell said:
U’re not being “real”, u’re being an enabler.

Let me give complete context -
From ‘21-‘24, our avg. total recruiting class rankings: 9.5

This is our schedule:
-UF (5-7 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 12th )
-FAMU (FCS)
-BSU (4-8 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 109th)
-USF (7-6 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 72nd)
-VT (7-6 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 46th)
-Cal (6-7 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 42nd)
-UL (10-4 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 34th)
-FSU (13-1 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 17th)
-Duke (8-5 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 61st)
-GT (7-6 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 49th)
-WF (4-8 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 70th)
-SU (6-7 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 59th)

Like, Got ****, what r we talking about out here? How much more of a talent advantage does Mario need over his opponents, blood? To make it even easier:

-Syracuse is breaking in a brand new, 1st time HC
-Duke is bringing in our sloppy seconds who everyone hated
-FSU done lost their team to the NFL & in bringing in everyone’s favorite punchline QB to start

Like, u’re being disingenuous af, and a pacifier if u think we shouldn’t expect 10+ wins this season. If TVD was the problem, he’s gone. If Gattis was the problem, he’s gone. If too many Manny eval players were the problem, they’re gone. Now if those weren’t the problems, then yeah, I will 100% agree not nan one of us should expect a 10 win season, but it was u mofos across CIS blaming TVD as to why we didn’t win 9 games last yr. HE’S GONE! STOP WITH THE EXCUSES! In life, u can literally excuse any and everything, the difference between those who thrive & those who remain behind is that the go-getters have ZERO excuses.

I’m sick of this fan base not requiring or wanting more. It’s maddening & soft af.
Click to expand...
It's also new. We would typically be starting the banner fund by year 3.
 
Rellyrell said:
U’re not being “real”, u’re being an enabler.

Let me give complete context -
From ‘21-‘24, our avg. total recruiting class rankings: 9.5

This is our schedule:
-UF (5-7 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 12th )
-FAMU (FCS)
-BSU (4-8 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 109th)
-USF (7-6 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 72nd)
-VT (7-6 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 46th)
-Cal (6-7 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 42nd)
-UL (10-4 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 34th)
-FSU (13-1 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 17th)
-Duke (8-5 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 61st)
-GT (7-6 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 49th)
-WF (4-8 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 70th)
-SU (6-7 / avg. recruiting rank from ‘21-‘24: 59th)

Like, Got ****, what r we talking about out here? How much more of a talent advantage does Mario need over his opponents, blood? To make it even easier:

-Syracuse is breaking in a brand new, 1st time HC
-Duke is bringing in our sloppy seconds who everyone hated
-FSU done lost their team to the NFL & in bringing in everyone’s favorite punchline QB to start

Like, u’re being disingenuous af, and a pacifier if u think we shouldn’t expect 10+ wins this season. If TVD was the problem, he’s gone. If Gattis was the problem, he’s gone. If too many Manny eval players were the problem, they’re gone. Now if those weren’t the problems, then yeah, I will 100% agree not nan one of us should expect a 10 win season, but it was u mofos across CIS blaming TVD as to why we didn’t win 9 games last yr. HE’S GONE! STOP WITH THE EXCUSES! In life, u can literally excuse any and everything, the difference between those who thrive & those who remain behind is that the go-getters have ZERO excuses.

I’m sick of this fan base not requiring or wanting more. It’s maddening & soft af.
Click to expand...

Fans are always overrating our players. Every year. Like did the last NFL draft not teach you that our talent is not what everyone assumes it is? Class rankings be damned. We don't have a big talent advantage over the ACC. The draft proves it.

Now we've been getting more talented every year mario has been here, this is true. But Manny was not a football coach he was the mayor son and he ran this program in to the ground with incompetence including incompetent player evalutation, so Mario is having to rebuild from the ground up

By the way I never said it was an excuse just an expectation. We won 7 games last year and now yall are acting like we're crazy because we're not sold this team is 100% going to the ACCG and playoff. Maybe we will, but there's a lot of youth and unproven players and there are gaps on this roster especially at DB which is bottom half of the ACC in talent/experience. And I'm happy we got dyoni hill but let's be real he doesn't sniff the field at alabama, georgia, ohio state, michigan, etc. He got the offer because he's someone the DB coach knew, and we did nothing else to address that room in the portal.
 
Advertisement
Back
Top