FL Cane
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Another week, another Miami W to celebrate. This W is significant, as Miami has won the state title back-to-back years for the first time since 2004. Our win aside, here are some observations from this week in CFB.
- Cincinnati: going into this week, I heard a lot about cincy being favored at home against a Top 15 Iowa State team. I genuinely didn't understand why, but after seeing the performance the Bearcats put on yesterday, I understood. This is a good Cincinnati team that will make noise in the Big 12. It was the best game of a relatively boring 12 PM slate.
- Iowa State: Matt Campbell is a very, very good coach. He's taken Iowa State from irrelevant to relevant. However, he always seems to have one to two of these games in him every year, where Iowa State should win but they just blow it. This team is still squarely in the Big 12 race, but with BYU, Arizona State, and TCU coming up, this team will need to be on it to get to the conference championship.
- Illinois: Bret Bilema's squad pulled off another comfortable win yesterday, this time against a retooled Purdue team. It's not always easy going with the fightining Illini, but Luke Altmyer and this team have grit. Illinois has one major challenge left on its schedule, a matchup with Ohio State this upcoming weekend. The Illini get the Buckeyes at home, and a win against what should be the #2 team in the country would be a program-defining win. Either way, even with an L, Illinois has a great chance to finish this year 9-3/10-2 with the remaining schedule.
- USF: ever since its blowout loss to Miami, USF has handed out some blowout losses itself. The Bulls were in control this week as they played Charlotte. USF is anywhere from the best to third best G5 team out there. Right now, there's a three-way race for the CFP G5 Bid between USF, Memphis, and Boise State. USF already beat Boise State, and Memphis is looming. If the Bulls can beat Memphis, they may very well end this season 11-1. Either way, even with a loss, this team has a great shot to win the AAC and get a rematch with Memphis in the conference championship game. I continue to believe that Miami dominating USF, they way we did, is an impressive win.
- Michigan: you can see the vision here for coach Sheroon Moore. This is a physical team with young talent. Bryce Underwood gets better every week, and I do believe this team will be very good in the next 1-2 years. While they played a bad Wisconsin team yesterday, they did what they needed to do and added another W to the win column. The biggest remaining matchup for this team is the yearly end-of-the-season game against Ohio State. Thankfully for the Wolverines, they're riding a four game win streak and get the Buckeyes in the Big House. With matchups against USC and Washington coming up, this Michigan team has a good shot of getting to 9-3.
- Notre Dame: I think people are underselling this ND squad. This is a very good team that gets better week to week. CJ Carr is going to be a force to be reckoned with for the foreseeable future, and ND has a level of physicality that few teams in CFB can match. Boise State is no pushover, they are a G5 team that will push for that CFP bid, and ND pounded them yesterday. The Fighting Irish look on track to finish the year 10-2, and make a very convinving argument for an at-large CFP bid. As things stand, their only losses are to what should be #1 Miami and a top 5 Texas A&M Team.
- Penn State: you can't really say it any other way. The last two weeks have arguably been the worst for Penn State in the James Franklin Era. Losing to Oregon in 2OT is understandable. For one, James Franklin never wins the big game. And second, it's Oregon. However, the Nittany Lions had an opportunity to vent some frustration against an interim-coach-led 0-4 UCLA Bruins. Instead, Interim HC Tim Kipper and OC Jerry Neuheisal pulled the upset of the year, and sent Penn State to 3-2 and out of the Top 25. Drew Allar continues to be a Game Manager + QB, and Penn State's offense looks like it's been possessed by the ghost of Dan Enos. Even then, Penn State didn't lose this game because of Allar and its offense. They still put up 37 points. Instead, the Jim Knowles led defense completely **** the bed against a terrible UCLA offense. Nico Lamaleava aside, there's no reason an 0-4 team should put up 42 points. Ultimately, Penn State needs to have a real conversation about moving on from Franklin. It's Year 11, they can't win the big game, and they lose to teams like UCLA. Also, keeping Drew Allar and letting Beau Pribula walk was a monumental mistake.
- Texas: you could see it in Week 1, but it's self-evident now: Texas is a fraud. Arch Manning looks like a complete bust, and this Texas team will be lucky to get to 8 wins. This team just looks off. The offense and defense we saw last year is non-existent right now. Arch Manning is a third-year QB that looks like a true freshman at times. He has arm talent, but seems to have issues with the speed of the game and reading defenses. This Texas team is firmly outside of the CFP race, and rightfully so. Only the DL and OL, Florida absolutely demolished this team. Again, like with USF, it's impressive that Miami so thoroughly dominated Florida.
- Florida: Billy Napier seems to have 9 lives when it comes to pulling off job-saving wins. Florida looked the best it has all year in a convincing win against a fraudulent Texas team. The offense was moving, and Florida's lines mauled Texas. However, with the most brutal schedule in CFB, this Florida team is likely looking at a 5-7/6-6 finish. They will be favored against Kentucky, Miss St, and FSU. However, they've still got UGA, Ole Miss, A&M, and Tennessee. Either way, DJ Lagway looked good, and Dallas Wilson has been an infusion of talent into this offense. The best case scenario for Miami is Napier willing Florida to 8-4, which would almost certainly give him another year in Gainesville, and set Florida back another year from potentially getting an HC that can actually win consistently.
- Alabama: another solid W for Bama this week, as they get revenge against Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt. For 90% of this game, it was a battle. Either way, Bama still pulled off the W. Ty Simpson has firmly settled into his role as starting QB, and this Bama team is firmly in the SEC Championship Race. This team still doesn't have the level of physicality, especially on the lines, that was present in the Saban years. However, they can keep up with anyone. With Tennessee, Mizzou, LSU, and Oklahoma coming up, this team will have a lot of opportunities to craft what would be a Top 5 CFP resume. The run game still remains a concern, and the defense is not as good as recent box scores indicate. Either way, keep an eye on this team. It looks more and more like the Week 1 FSU loss was an anomaly.
- Vandy: This game was really the encapsulation of "what could've been." Vandy did enough to win, but Diego Pavia's two red-zone turnovers were absolute killers. Either way, this is a good team that has the chance to win 9 games. Clark Lea is going to make a lot of money this offseason, be it from Vandy or from another big P5 job opening. The score of this game is not indicative of how close it actually was.
- Ohio State: another week another big W from Ohio State. This team should be the #2 team in the country. Julian Sayin continues to settle in at QB, and OSU has the best Defense in the country. However, it's hard to say how good this team really is. The only two quality wins were against Texas and Washington. Texas looks worse by the week, and Washington is just good. We'll see how the Buckeyes fare next week, as they get their toughest matchup on the road at Illinois.
- UNC: fu**ing terrible. As the years have gone on, it's become evident that Tom Brady made Bill Belichick, not the other way around. UNC is terrible in all facets of the game, and this team will be lucky to get to four wins. For an experiment that had lots of hype coming into this year, this UNC program is an unmitigated disaster right now. Would not be surprised if Belichick ends up leaving at the end of this year. He could definitely get a second year, but I don't know if a guy at his age, and with his expectations, has the wherewithal to stick it out for 2-3 years to make this team respectable. I wish we were playing these clowns this year, so we could hang 70 on them.
- Mississippi State: keep an eye on this team over the next few years. Jeff Lebby is a good coach, and this team shows some signs of life. While they were clearly outmatched yesterday, this team has an outside shot at a bowl game and will only get better going into next year. If this program is smart, they'll do whatever it takes to keep Lebby in his role.
- Texas A&M: kinda an under-the-radar time. Mike Elko has this team rolling, and they are firmly in the SEC/CFP Race. They also have a favorable schedule, as they avoid UGA, Bama, and Ole Miss. This team should finish the year at 10-2 minimum, and in doing so will have a shot at the CFP. If they finish anything less than 10-2, it will be a massive disappointment.
- FSU: don't let the box score deceive you, Miami absolutely dominated FSU in Doak, despite taking its foot off the gas in the 4Q. FSU came into this game with a lot of hype and anger from a 2OT loss to UVA the week before. Lots of talk how that L was a wakeup call, and how FSU would come fired up. After a solid first drive, FSU's offense was MIA until the ten-minute mark of the 4Q. Tommy Castellanos was running for his life most of the game, and Miami's D came up with 3 TOs. FSU's misdirection got blown up at multiple points, and the lines were mauled for the most part. FSU's run game did nothing. The only thing that worked for them was backyard ball and pickups on broken plays while we were in prevent defense. This game was never in danger for Miami, despite FSU having nearly everything go their way in the last ten minutes. Bogus PF penalties aside, FSU got exposed last night. Miami should've won by a much larger margin, but this FSU team is what we all thought they were: a 7-5/8-4 team that caught Bama sleeping in week 1. With Pitt coming up, this team will either salvage its season or start spiraling. Either way, in Year 6 of Mike Norvell, Miami is miles ahead of FSU.
- Miami: i'll have more to say in a separate post about our game, but suffice to say we played 3.5 quarters of elite football. The late lapses were inexcusable, and we can't go into a shell, but this team should be #1 in the country. We also need to clean up the penalties, despite a number of the PF ones being completely bogus. Also, it's inexcusable that FSU converted on fourth down three consecutive times. The game should've been over long before that, and I'm sure Heatherman will make this defense hear it.
