Sizing up risk/reward factors of candidates

[orangegreenwhite]

Thought it would be interesting to look at coaches in terms of risk vs reward (with high risk being someone you could see getting fired after a few years).

Here are some of my takes (chime in with your own):

Butch Davis - low risk, medium-high reward....and extremely low risk for the AD/BOT since he is a fan favorite and fans can't (or at least shouldn't) point fingers if Davis were to flame out. We know Butch knows talent and also that he will put together a good staff. Remains to be seen if he can be a championship-caliber gameday coach, but he would excite the fan base in a huge way and that is absolutely crucial right now. Maybe kids today don't know much about him, but their parents and coaches do and i'm sure many will start steering kids to Miami again without hesitation.

Tom Herman - medium risk, high reward....hasn't proven himself over the long-term, but obviously his career is off to a great start and his style should prove popular with south Florida recruits

Chudzinski - high risk, high reward....too many unknowns since he's been away from college football for a number of years and the landscape has changed a lot over that time. Reputed to be a great x's and o's guy, so maybe he'd get the offense hitting all the right notes right away. But would he make the mistake that Golden made of making things too complex? (As a side note, it didn't fill me with confidence when Golden studied NFL teams in the off-season...he'd been better off looking at what the best college programs were doing and emulating them). And is he a good talent evaluator? Can he motivate?

Cristobal - high risk, medium reward....failed his first head coaching stint, though arguably AD Garcia was too quick in canning him. Will the Saban magic rub off on him? Strong personality, reputed to be a great recruiter, but as far as game-day coaching and putting together a great staff, who knows.

 

[orangegreenwhite]

I forgot to mention Schiano, who i see as low risk/medium reward. At the very least he would field good defenses and would probably have Miami contending for ACC titles almost every year. I don't see him as a championship caliber coach, but he would be competent and a giant improvement over what we've had over the past decade or more.

 

[Klamalama]

Butch Davis built the greatest team in football history; began repeating that at UNC; wants to work for us.

Risk : Reward

1. Risk - The idiots on the BOT might not hire him.
2. Reward - A top 5 team, MINIMUM. Several NCs possible.

 

[4th-and-14]

Good post. I would slightly disagree, and would say:

Butch - low risk, high reward. The only questions about him are his age and his being out of the game the last 5 years.

Herman - very high risk, high reward. Could be the next great one, but is also very unproven as an HC. And how would his read option offense work with Kaaya (UH's QB averages 15 rushing attempts per game)? And if he doesn't run his read-option offense (b/c of Kaaya), then now he's even 100x more unproven b/c now you're asking him to change the one thing he knows and do something he's never done before.

Schiano - Low risk, medium reward. 10+ years as an HC and you know what you get. Clearly won't be a complete failure, but also may not be anything special.

Mario - high risk, high reward. Lack of experience is a huge risk, but if his recruiting ability can lock down South Florida, that can solve a lot of problems.

Chud - medium risk, medium reward. Too smart to be a total failure, but serious concerns about recruiting and enthusiasm for the college game. Just doesn't feel like he has that "it" factor that the great HC's have.

 

[orangegreenwhite]

Klam - if the BOT objects to Butch Davis because of NCAA infractions occurring during his watch at NC, they should realize that Butch knows that both Miami and the NCAA will be keeping close watch on him and so will make sure everything is done above baord. And if they are worried about public perception, with him having worked at ESPN and with many in the media saying Miami should hire Butch, that too shouldn't be a concern. Hopefully the clamor from fans and media will be loud enough that the BOT will be more receptive to the idea of hiring him back.

4th-and-14 - great point about Herman and his offense. Probably wouldn't sit well with Kaaya if Herman is hired.

 

[Klamalama]

Klam - if the BOT objects to Butch Davis because of NCAA infractions occurring during his watch at NC, they should realize that Butch knows that both Miami and the NCAA will be keeping close watch on him and so will make sure everything is done above baord. And if they are worried about public perception, with him having worked at ESPN and with many in the media saying Miami should hire Butch, that too shouldn't be a concern. Hopefully the clamor from fans and media will be loud enough that the BOT will be more receptive to the idea of hiring him back.

4th-and-14 - great point about Herman and his offense. Probably wouldn't sit well with Kaaya if Herman is hired.

The anti-Butch IDIOTS, in the BOT, use the UNC troubles as cover for their own bias. Butch has been exonerated 10 times. They might as well say that Butch picked his nose in 4th grade, for all the importance it has. Fact is that Butch coached during our own real sanctions, and kept everything clean.

 

[onplane]

The BOT will never forget Butch hired John Blake who supposedly was the person who got the program on probation. Butch and Blake went back together for a long time and Butch surely knew the man's reputation.

Klam - if the BOT objects to Butch Davis because of NCAA infractions occurring during his watch at NC, they should realize that Butch knows that both Miami and the NCAA will be keeping close watch on him and so will make sure everything is done above baord. And if they are worried about public perception, with him having worked at ESPN and with many in the media saying Miami should hire Butch, that too shouldn't be a concern. Hopefully the clamor from fans and media will be loud enough that the BOT will be more receptive to the idea of hiring him back.

4th-and-14 - great point about Herman and his offense. Probably wouldn't sit well with Kaaya if Herman is hired.

The anti-Butch IDIOTS, in the BOT, use the UNC troubles as cover for their own bias. Butch has been exonerated 10 times. They might as well say that Butch picked his nose in 4th grade, for all the importance it has. Fact is that Butch coached during our own real sanctions, and kept everything clean.