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Separating Myth From Reality

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Hurricane7

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Sep 22, 2014
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It use to be the expectation that as long as we hired a decent coach they were going to crush it here. Schnellenberger, Johnson, Erickson, and Davis were examples of this then Coker, Shannon, and Golden came along and diminished the faith that any coach could succeed in this job. If you ask outsiders to explain our lack of success they will say that the elite programs have more money and better facilities and that everyone recruits south Florida (haven't those always been the case?) If you ask insiders (which I guess I am doing now so maybe I already know most of the answers I'm going to get) they will blame Donna Shalala and co for not making a winning football program a priority and focusing on hiring unqualified and inexperienced coaches concerned more about cleaning up the program than winning.

In short, the outsiders believe our struggles are due to external factors and the insiders believe we've been sabotaging our own success.

What is the actual and objective reality of the situation? Now that Shalala is retired and the school has demonstrated the largest commitment we've ever seen to football and hired the most qualified coach we've ever hired.. shouldn't the expectations be for Richt to succeed just like those first four coaches did?
 
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Yes. Richt should be expected to seriously contend for the ACC championship every season. Win the ACC and let the CFP voting come into play.
 
We went 9-3 with Al Golden a few years ago. We just went 8-4 with Golden coaching 7 games and the remnants of his staff finishing off the other 5.

Al Golden and this staff are nothing special and are below average on their best day. Mark Richt is not Nick Saban, but he is a top level coach. He's still a top 10/15 coach in the nation. He and his staff are going to be huge upgraded over the last few we've dealt with. I don't want to get ahead of myself, but I really don't see how we won't be getting 10+ wins on average with Richt.

Go back and look at Richt from 2001-2005. 3 SEC title game appearances and 2 wins. Then Georgia hired a new AD and he was stripped of his playcalling and QB coaching. He was forced into a CEO role and the program suffered. He still was finishing in the top 10 more times than not, but it just wasn't like the first 5 years.

The Mark Richt that we are getting at Miami is the hands on version that will be calling our offense. We're getting the Richt that ran those nasty FSU offenses(can't believe I complemented them), the Richt that had great offenses at UGA and had them competing for and winning the SEC. He is an amazing QB coach and a great playcaller and a very good strategist. You don't go 9-5 in bowl games luckily.

I know it is typical of fans to have bias with their teams and they tend to think they'll win a game or two more than they actually will, but with what I've said about Richt and looking at next year's schedule, 10 wins is really not a stretch at all. This team has plenty of talent, especially compared to the rest of the division, and if a lot of wildcards stick around one more year, this team has the potential to be next year's Michigan and burst onto the scene.

2016 Schedule

OOC
Florida A&M - W
@ App State - W
@ Notre Dame - L(Pains me to say it, I think we can win it, but for the sake of the example, we won't stretch it)
FAU - W

Conference Play
Duke - W
UNC - Toss Up
Pitt - W
FSU - Toss Up

@GT - W
@UVA - W
@VT - W(Fuente has his work cutout for him)
@NC State - W

I honestly believe 9-3 is our floor next year with Richt. That's only one more win that this year with an easier schedule and a significantly better staff. At the same time, 11-1 is a very real possibility. Richt gets FSU at home to kick off his Miami career and I think that game has the potential to be GOTY material. UNC graduates Williams, but returns a lot. That will be a tough one.

Notre Dame does not count as a conference game and I see us at least splitting FSU and UNC, so we'll be at 7-1 in conference play, 10-2 on the year. I think 11-3 with a bowl win is actually very achievable and I am pumped up. I don't want to wait 10 months for next season. I want to be kicking off tomorrow. I'm pumped.
 
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The truth as I see it is that the outsiders have an accurate view of our flaws, but they overestimate how much they mean. We've go obstacles, but you're right that we've always had those. Truth is that not any coach can win here, but if we've made the hire most of us think we have, we're going t be very relevant very soon. We truly are a good coach away from being scary good.
 
It's probably a bit of both. Without a doubt the expectation should be to contend for an ACC title on an annual basis and occasionally a national championship.
 
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