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Red Zone offense

OrangeBowlMagic said:
Not sure where you guys are looking, but the difference between first and last is much larger than that.

#1 in TD % in the country last year was Northern Illinois at 83.33%

Dead last, #127, was Bowling Green. They scored a TD on 33.33% of their possessions.

Obviously a massive difference.

Also, @DTP, I don't think what you posted is correct either. Miami did score 26 TDs on 43 chances, good for 72nd nationally at 60.47%. But you're saying just 3 more TDs gets you into the Top 15. That's not right. 29 TDs on 43 chances would be 67.4%. That would have been 37th. Sure, a big jump, but 3 TDs are 3 TDs. That could be the difference between winning and losing. How many games have we lost by 4 points or less the last few seasons? 1 last season, 2 in 2019 (and another by 7 but the game went into OT), another in 2018. Those points could easily be the difference between winning and losing, and I don't think it's a coincidence that the teams in the original tweet who are poor in this metric are some of the worst teams in the country. It's a correlation, no doubt.

Lastly, to get into the Top 15 last year, we'd have needed to score 32 TDs in our 43 chances. That's a significant jump from the 26 we did score.
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Still, a three touchdown difference over 11 games would have been the difference between 72nd and 37th (I must have misread the numbers). Yes, a higher red zone touchdown percentage is always better than a low one but it can be a misleading statistic. I mean when three of the top 6 and 4 of the top twelve teams on the playoff era list are primarily triple option teams (I’m assuming GT would be higher if they hadn’t switched offenses for the last two years) it shows the faults of the stat. Efficiency is great but I’d rather go 5-7 than 2-2 in the red zone.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
Not sure where you guys are looking, but the difference between first and last is much larger than that.

#1 in TD % in the country last year was Northern Illinois at 83.33%

Dead last, #127, was Bowling Green. They scored a TD on 33.33% of their possessions.

Obviously a massive difference.

Also, @DTP, I don't think what you posted is correct either. Miami did score 26 TDs on 43 chances, good for 72nd nationally at 60.47%. But you're saying just 3 more TDs gets you into the Top 15. That's not right. 29 TDs on 43 chances would be 67.4%. That would have been 37th. Sure, a big jump, but 3 TDs are 3 TDs. That could be the difference between winning and losing. How many games have we lost by 4 points or less the last few seasons? 1 last season, 2 in 2019 (and another by 7 but the game went into OT), another in 2018. Those points could easily be the difference between winning and losing, and I don't think it's a coincidence that the teams in the original tweet who are poor in this metric are some of the worst teams in the country. It's a correlation, no doubt.

Lastly, to get into the Top 15 last year, we'd have needed to score 32 TDs in our 43 chances. That's a significant jump from the 26 we did score.
Click to expand...
Maybe I missed something you posted? I’m looking at the tweet. Says navy #1 at 74 % and last is Kent state at 52%
 
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