Carroll was a laughed at hire at USCw. He was their 4th choice after 3 people turned them down. Nobody knew after he started 2-5 in 2001 that he'd create a CFB dynasty. Everybody thought he was a corch at that point.
Saban was good at LSU but not really a world beater. Nobody realized he'd win 4 NCs after he lost to La Monroe.
Wasn't Saban's last game at LSU a win in NC game? Didn't he leave, not fired from, a NFL HC job to take Bama.
Saban came back to defend his title at LSU, and they lost 2 or 3 games. He went to the Dolphins after that season.
BTW one of those losses was 45-16 to Georgia.
If we're using a coach's past results, we might as well use Richt's; 8-5 after year one, then 13-1 in year two.
Let's see how quickly Richt adapts to what's going on.