OT: Stock Market discussion

Boarcane

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I love Apple & Amazon. However, I’ll be shorting the markets when the S&P hits 3400. I think Apple will hit 400 & Amazon will see 3000. I’ll buy Apple back at 325 and Amazon at 2200. I like making it on the way up and down. I don’t suck at this fwiw
I’m not sure where the bottom will be on the pullback. I’m guessing 2600, but 2300 wouldn’t surprise me
 

HamburgerSV

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I have found a relatively easy way to make money in the market. Youwon't get the highest returns possible, but your risk is very low and your returns will be steady: Amazon.
I don't have all my money in Amazon because there is this pest in my head that keeps telling me to diversify. But the reality is that Amazon has won at the game of life. And they will keep winning. And they are so big that if another company does something well, Amazon can copy and do it better. Or they can buy the other company. Amazon is well positioned to win whether there is a virus or not. All the virus has done is accelerate Amazon's victory.
you can buy all the FAANG stocks if you want more diversification, but Amazon is as sure a bet as we've ever seen
Amzn and aapl are the only stocks I’ll never sell. I would add Googl to the list if they decide to become more shareholder friendly. I also like AMD long term. For the most part I’m a swing trader though especially now with COVID hanging over our heads constantly.
 

RVACane

Remember me? Benny Blanco?
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Sorry, I apologize. You're 100% right. He baited me for attention and I let him waste my time. Anyway, in summary, F the Gators.
It happens. Just trying to head some things off and help the other Maude’s get this place back on track.
 

Ash Joshi

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I can understand why you would sell Apple. Shlt, it seems like it hits a new 52-week high almost every day. There is no right or wrong. Because the future is almost impossible to predict.

Don’t know if you get into technical analysis that much and it’s kind of funny if you look at all the numbers and try to let them marinate, but look at the PE value for Amazon versus Apple. You can still make the argument that Apple is still a value stock based on PE alone, but of course it’s never as simple as all that. PE value can be one of the most misleading ratios used in the stock market, but it does provide some information to help one make decisions. It’s just a matter of what kind of weight you give to it in relation to all the other factors.
I think about selling both stocks every day. And then every day I talk myself out of it. Amazon and Apple have done a great job of figuring out our economy and what consumers want.
oddly Enough Google has not kept pace.
any of you have any opinions why Google doesn’t seem to keep pace?
 
Joined
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You could very well make the argument that Apple is a value stock relative to FAANG/Tech based upon recent history (5Y) and forward guidance. At this stage, it's probably more worthwhile to compare Apple's PE/forward PE (quarter out to yr out) against its 5Y Avg. PE for example. I'd be surprised to see Apple's PE trade much higher than it has since 2015ish. No point in even comparing Apple v. Amazon, different business model, margins, growth prospects.
“You could very well make the argument that Apple is a value stock relative to FAANG/Tech”. Yeah that’s what I was getting at. But I wasn’t saying it with bang on the desk certainty. Because one thing I’ve learned is to never be too certain about anything in the stock market. I just thank God sometimes I didn’t listen to people that are paid millions of dollars to be analysts, if I had I would’ve sold Apple at about 1/4 of what it is now.

It wasn’t a direct comparison, per se. The companies are considered in basically two different groups. Apple sells a ton of equipment. In many ways it still is an iPhone company. Amazon tries to sell equipment. But I’ll bet the Amazon developed tech item sales is only a tiny fraction of their overall sales.

The reason I discussed them together, is because number one they’re both FAANG stocks, and number two they’re both well-known stocks, and number three they’re both in the “technology“ sector. But classifying companies nowadays is difficult because you know Amazon is also in the retail sector as well as Apple.

They are interesting companies to discuss, compare and contrast, because of their similarities and because of their distinct differences as well.

The whole discussion of PEs was just to look at one numerical factor compared to different companies using that factor as a pivot point. In reality, a high PE for Amazon is not the same obviously as a high PE for Apple. Imagine Apple with a 50 PE what would it be selling for now? Probably close to $600 a share. Doesn’t compare to Amazon that has $120 or so PE. Amazon is at 120 for different reasons. I was just trying to illustrate that while PE is an instructive measure, it is almost meaningless in a vacuum
 
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Joined
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I love Apple & Amazon. However, I’ll be shorting the markets when the S&P hits 3400. I think Apple will hit 400 & Amazon will see 3000. I’ll buy Apple back at 325 and Amazon at 2200. I like making it on the way up and down. I don’t suck at this fwiw
I’m not sure where the bottom will be on the pullback. I’m guessing 2600, but 2300 wouldn’t surprise me
i’m not too far off your line of thinking. It’s just the feels for me. But the hair on the back of my neck is saying pull back at some point.

do you know a couple of the major houses have upped their price target for Amazon - one at 2800 and the other one at 3000. I can’t remember the second one I know the first one was Morgan Stanley. I think Morgan Stanley was the 2800 and Barclays, although I’m not sure about this one, was the one at 3000
 
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9oh4Cane

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798
“You could very well make the argument that Apple is a value stock relative to FAANG/Tech”. Yeah that’s what I was getting at. But I wasn’t saying it with bang on the desk certainty. Because one thing I’ve learned is to never be too certain about anything in the stock market. I just thank God sometimes I didn’t listen to people that are paid millions of dollars to be analysts, if I had I would’ve sold Apple at about 1/4 of what it is now.

Well yeah it wasn’t a direct comparison. The companies are considered and basically two different groups. Apple sells a ton of equipment. In many ways it still is an iPhone company. Amazon tries to sell equipment. But I’ll bet the Amazon developed tech item sales is only a tiny fraction of their overall sales.

The reason I discussed them together, is because number one they’re both FAANG stocks, and number two they’re both well-known stocks, and number three they’re both in the “technology“ sector. But classifying companies nowadays is difficult because you know Amazon is also in the retail sector as well as Apple.

They are interesting companies to discuss, compare and contrast, because of their similarities and because of their distinct differences as well.

The whole discussion of PEs was just to look at one numerical factor compared to different companies using that factor as a pivot point. In reality, a high PE for Amazon is not the same obviously as a high PE for Apple. Imagine Apple with a 50 PE what would it be selling for now? Probably close to $600 a share. Doesn’t compare Amazon has $120 or so PE. Amazon is at 120 for different reasons. I was just trying to illustrate that while PE is an instructive measure, it is almost meaningless in a vacuum
Agree with everything you've said. I never operate with certainty, I look at it as more of a balancing act. I've been slowly cutting down on my Apple position, but it will still remain my largest holding. When it was down at $175 with, I want to say, a 16-17x earnings I floated more funds towards it. Long term guidance is around ~8% EPS growth, much lower than the previous decade. I usually wouldn't be comfortable with a 30+ PE for that kind of guidance, but it's Apple, they have the balance sheet and footprint to easily beat those expectations. + very shareholder friendly.

In general, there's really no point in getting down to the nitty gritty on a widely covered company like Apple. Just about getting into it at a reasonable multiple and riding the wave.
 
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Agree with everything you've said. I never operate with certainty, I look at it as more of a balancing act. I've been slowly cutting down on my Apple position, but it will still remain my largest holding. When it was down at $175 with, I want to say, a 16-17x earnings I floated more funds towards it. Long term guidance is around ~8% EPS growth, much lower than the previous decade. I usually wouldn't be comfortable with a 30+ PE for that kind of guidance, but it's Apple, they have the balance sheet and footprint to easily beat those expectations. + very shareholder friendly.

In general, there's really no point in getting down to the nitty gritty on a widely covered company like Apple. Just about getting into it at a reasonable multiple and riding the wave.
I agree. I think with Apple it’s just what percentage of your portfolio do you want it to be. The company is solid for the time being, and sometime into to the future.

But there are always cautionary tales in technology. And I don’t know if you’re old enough, but I was last in school in the mid 90s, there used to be this thing called the palm pilot. I thought it was the greatest thing since sliced bread. Of course I didn’t have any money to invest back then. Thank God I didn’t. My thinking about the future it was right, but my thinking about the company was dead wrong
 

CFLCane

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Dxy is still hovering right above that support. Hasnt broken yet. I just heard kroger was the only positive on the S&P today due to food prices being one the few places inflation has affected consumer wise. Another inflation tea leaf.
@Bird4um
2nd warning, DXY bounced off support on my last call but has since made a big move down again towards that long term support of 96.4ish. There looks to be an obvious correlation of gold testing long term resistance and dxy testing long term support at the same time. Walk up your stop losses and protect yourselves things could get really ugly quick again in the broader market if the USD breaks down.
 

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@Bird4um
2nd warning, DXY bounced off support on my last call but has since made a big move down again towards that long term support of 96.4ish. There looks to be an obvious correlation of gold testing long term resistance and dxy testing long term support at the same time. Walk up your stop losses and protect yourselves things could get really ugly quick again in the broader market if the USD breaks down.
What makes you think the USD is going to break down. What are you looking at?
 

GladeCane

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I agree. I think with Apple it’s just what percentage of your portfolio do you want it to be. The company is solid for the time being, and sometime into to the future.

But there are always cautionary tales in technology. And I don’t know if you’re old enough, but I was last in school in the mid 90s, there used to be this thing called the palm pilot. I thought it was the greatest thing since sliced bread. Of course I didn’t have any money to invest back then. Thank God I didn’t. My thinking about the future it was right, but my thinking about the company was dead wrong
Here you about Palm Pilot. To me the downside would be if Tim Cook decided to leave. Aapl is getting into content, medical diagnostics and replacing Intel's chips with their own. Chips alone worth billions and it will allow them to further distinguish them from their foes.
 
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The fed has printed a historical amount of money the last 3 months and there is still plenty of printing to occur for the near future. Inflation is the eventual consequence.
There’s already inflation in case you hadn’t noticed and I’m sure you have, the question is how much inflation? And that depends on the next six months
 
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Here you about Palm Pilot. To me the downside would be if Tim Cook decided to leave. Aapl is getting into content, medical diagnostics and replacing Intel's chips with their own. Chips alone worth billions and it will allow them to further distinguish them from their foes.
All good points. Going into their own chips versus Intel is going to improve their margins, no doubt about that.

There’s another wildcard, if they can figure out a way to measure blood sugar accurately with their current or modified Apple Watch technology, that’s gonna be a game changer
 

CFLCane

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There’s already inflation in case you hadn’t noticed and I’m sure you have, the question is how much inflation? And that depends on the next six months
I've noticed. It showed up in base metals and and food prices first. The worrying part is the covid closures alone are causing inflation through a lack of production. Combined with the fed action there is a real chance of a hyperinflation event. Lets hope ot doesnt get to that.
 

CFLCane

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Here you about Palm Pilot. To me the downside would be if Tim Cook decided to leave. Aapl is getting into content, medical diagnostics and replacing Intel's chips with their own. Chips alone worth billions and it will allow them to further distinguish them from their foes.
AMD is someone to watch as 3rd party benefactor. Theyve already been taking market share from intel and theyre very capable innovators. If they can steal more server marketshare their stock is going explode even more than it has.

Intel is realky getting kicked in the teethm
 

GladeCane

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All good points. Going into their own chips versus Intel is going to improve their margins, no doubt about that.

There’s another wildcard, if they can figure out a way to measure blood sugar accurately with their current or modified Apple Watch technology, that’s gonna be a game changer
The health diagnostics is probably bigger then the chips long term.
 
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