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Miami-FSU - Stats & Thoughts

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bshaw28

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I've been looking at all types of stats and trends this week, and these are the ones that stand out to me for this game.


What I Like

The top team in FL usually rotates.

- 00–04 – Miami
- 05-09 – Florida
- 10-15 – FSU

My take: We’re due. Miami is up in the rotation. Miami matches up great, and everything is in place for us to win. We’re ascending right now while FSU is descending. FL isn’t good. We have the new coach momentum. Richt and Kaaya can both shake the “big game” monkey off their backs. A ridiculous amount of big time recruits will be at the game. Miami has all the momentum. This has all the feel of a “this is where Miami turned it all around” game.


Kaaya vs. FSU

- Kaaya's 2 games vs. FSU: 45 for 83, 716 yds, 5 TD's, 1 INT

My take: Kayaa is the reason we’ve been right there with FSU the last 2 games. He just needs some help (No Berrios drop, no Dobbard fumble), and he needs to finish.



What I'm Unsure Of

- Miami Offense is ranked 36. Opponents Defenses are ranked 27 (GT), 63 (App St), 117 (FAU)
- Miami Defense is ranked 17. Opponents Offenses are ranked 90 (App St), 117 (GT), 118 (FAU)

- FSU Offense is ranked 17. Opponents Defenses are ranked 21 (Lou), 95 (USF), 100 (Ole Miss), 105 (UNC)
- FSU Defense is ranked 94. Opponents Offenses are ranked 2 (Lou), 26 (USF), 27 (Ole Miss), 32 (UNC)

Is Miami crushing the teams they’re supposed to, or just playing weak opponents? Has the FSU offense been good because the defenses have been bad, and Defense bad because the offenses have been good?

My take: I can see either side of these arguments here. You can do the law of transitive properties to make any case you want. Watching FSU’s games you can see holes all over their Defense, and they seem to play a little lazy on D. Francois can be shook with pressure, but he can throw some darts. Making him uncomfortable is key.

I’m confident Miami has something up their sleeve on Offense. They should put up a lot of points, and I think they’re going to have to. Miami’s D worries me. The secondary hasn’t been tested. GT ran for 267 yds 4.9 ypc against Miami. Clemson & BC both held GT to under 120 yds and 2.7 ypc. GT’s longest run of the season came against Miami. I feel like there were holes in the D vs. GT, but GT was too slow at the skill positions to take advantage. Won’t be like that vs. FSU.



What I Don't Like


Comebacks

Kaaya has been down by 14 or less at halftime in 9 games in his career.

Kaaya led a beautiful TD drive vs. FSU last year to take the lead in the 4th, but….that’s the only time in any of those 9 games that Miami has had a lead in the 2nd half.All 9 games were losses, and Miami only scored 8 offensive TD’s in the 2nd half.

By Contrast – FSU was down by 14 to both Ole Miss & UNC this year. They scored 7 2nd Half TD’s in those games. They scored points on 11 of their 12 2nd half drives in those games.

My Take: Miami has to get out to a fast start. Come out aggressive, get off to a hot start, keep the foot on the gas the entire game.


The Run Game

Dalvin Cook lives to crush FL schools. In 6 games vs. Miami, Florida, and South Florida he has 137 carries, 1,174 yds, 8.6 ypc, 11 TD’s. That’s 25-196-2TD’s per game avg.

- Cook vs. Miami - 29 carries, 314 yds, 10.8 ypc, 4 TD’s (+1 Receiving TD)
- Yearby vs. FSU - 25 carries, 67 yds, 2.7 ypc, 0 TD’s (1 Receiving TD)
- Miami as a team in last 4 games vs. FSU - 109 carries, 308 yds, 2.8 ypc, 2 TD’s

Miami rushing Yards Per Game this season: 373, 279, 164, 114. As the opponents have gotten progressively better, our run game has gotten progressively worse.

My take: I don’t think we can stop Cook. I think holding him under 200 total yards would be a victory. It's fine if he gets yards in chunks, just keep him from hitting the big play and we'll be ok. I just hope he fumbles. The numbers haven't been pretty for Miami. One of our RB's needs to step up to help take pressure off Kaaya. Doesn't need to be a career day, but have to at least be effective. FSU's run defense hasn't been that bad when not facing a running QB.


Overall

I think Miami will have to outshoot FSU. I'm expecting a shootout. Could be a last team with the ball wins type a game (or looses if it's an FSU FG). A fast start is absolutely necessary. Keep the pressure on them and keep the crowd in the game.

I feel the run game is lopsided in FSU's favor, so we need to pressure Francois to limit his effectiveness. Forcing turnovers will probably be necessary.

Richt (calling a good game) & Kaaya (playing a good game) is what will get the Win IMO. Both have a history of coming up short in big games. This is the perfect chance to change that perception.
 
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Stats are cool...matchups/personnel usually tell the tale


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The stats on the rank of each unit of the team (offense and defense) compared to the stats of their opponents is not a great indicator at this relatively early stage of the season. If you have a shut-down defense, for example, your opponents will likely have mediocre to bad offenses caused, in part, by your shut-down defense.

That sort of analysis is more relevant when you've played 10+ games where the impact of one opponent is smaller.
 
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I do not believe in the rankings simply because of opponents. FSU defense is terrible. We remember being coached by No D. It's like FSU hired him. Our defense secondary is untested. Getting into the backfield is not untested. GT game is a game I judge by itself because this group has never faced that offense before and with 3 true FR LB, there was an hesitation. One thing always makes this game is turnovers and I definitely seeing us forcing a couple. This team is not a complete team but they will have a better idea of themselves after this game.

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Game comes down to a few things
- our OL - can they protect Brad and can they open holes for the RBs
- Turnovers

One big difference - the old coach ( I dont say his name) couldnt make a 2nd half adjustment to save his life (job) - MR will make the adjustments - no doubt
 
Here's some other stats that may be telling.

Miami vs FAU
470 Yards gained
191 Pass 279 Rush

214 Yards allowed
167 Pass 47 Rushing

FAU season averages
330 yards gained
199 Pass 131 Rush

490 Yards allowed
240 Pass 250 Rush

Miami vs App St
549 Yards gained
385 Pass 126 Rush

241 Yards allowed
115 Pass 126 Rush

App St season averages
379 Yards gained
166 Pass 213 Rush

384 Yards allowed
250 Pass 134 Rush

Miami vs GT
355 Yards gained
241 Pass 114 Rush

361 Yards allowed
94 Pass 267 Rush

GT season averages
336 Yards gained
109 Pass 227 Rush

342 Yards allowed
223 Pass 119 Rush

So against GT and FAU we were roughly performing how teams do on average against their defense. Defensively we let GT have an average day, but we shut down FAU. Against App St we just dominated them completely offensively and defensively. Looking at total yards isn't the best way to judge a game, though.

FAU gives up 6.3 yards/play on the season. We gained 6.7 against them. We gave up 2.7 while they average 4.3

App St gives up 5.6. We gained 9.2 on them. We gave up 3.3 while they average 5.2.

GT gives up 5.7. We gained 7.7. We gave up 4.7 while they average 4.8.

We give up 3.6.

Looking at those stats we had a rough start to the FAU game, but once we found our footing we rolled on offense pretty easily, but that rough start barely got us nearly a half yard per play higher. Again, we just dominated App St with ease. These stats show how well our offense played against GT despite the total yards being so low. We only ran 46 plays against them while they ran 77 on us.

Defensively, we dominated App St and FAU while GT was average against us. I don't want to ever be average, but considering we started 3 true freshmen LB and had 2-3 big plays that gained them 20-30 yards, I'll take it. We struggled with the toss plays early on, but started to slow them down at the end of the game which was nice to see.

What I take away from all of this is that our offense outside of the first 20 minutes of the FAU game is having an easy time against everyone so far all the while staying as vanilla as possible really. I was at the App St and GT games and have re-watched all of our games about 3-4 times a piece and we've ran the same 10-12 plays over and over basically. Against App St we obviously had the one drive where we ran the same RPO bubble an entire drive almost. Against GT there were multiple drives where we went up the field running the same play 2-4 times straight. Coley's 35ish yard TD pass against App St was the same play that we ran right after the RB screen against GT for the big gain where Kaaya threaded the needle on the sideline. The curl/flat combo is being run over and over and working because Kaaya is making the right read every time.

The only time that I saw us open the playbook up was when GT scored to make it 28-21. Richt went with some tempo and ran some plays I didn't recognize and we basically got a first down every play and scored so easily it was like playing the scout team. After going up 35-21 Richt just bled the clock and took 3-4 yard rushes each time even if it meant we'd punt after a 4 minute 20 yard possession. You may not agree with getting conservative like that, but I don't mind it considering how long our young defense had been out there all day. Shorten the game when it's in hand to preserve your health.

I am not worried about our offense one bit. Richt isn't going to magically run 100 new plays against FSU, but there will obviously be new wrinkles and looks that he hasn't shown yet. We've had the luxury of playing as vanilla as we can. FSU has not. That benefits us greatly. Still, Richt is not the type of play caller that will run 56 unique plays all game. We're not going to run the same 10-12 plays against FSU, we will open it up much much more, but we will still be simpler than a lot of teams. The difference is that he preaches execution and this team has been executing highly so far. With execution from everyone every play you can still move the ball well as we have proven to date. Richt will make the defense adjust and when they do he mixes up his calls until they adjust and get a new weakness. I like his style. Some of you all might wish we were fooling the defense every play and I get why that is attractive, but you have to learn that is not who we will be with Richt calling plays. He expects execution every play and if he gets it, his offenses are very hard to stop because he knows what he's doing and he trains his QBs to know what they are doing.

If you all want, I can examine FSU like this as well so we can see how they've fared. I honestly don't know too much about them relative to Miami's stats. I know they've given up many yards and points, but they've faced high powered offenses. It would be neat to see if they gave up what these teams average each game or were as bad as they seemed and gave up even more than what their opposition averaged.

I apologize if there are mistakes or the flow of this post is weird. I'm just typing very quickly and my thoughts are racing. Just let me know if you all want FSU looked at. If I get enough requests I will gladly post it.
 
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not making excuses for that FSU terrible defense...but wow they went through the gauntlet this year in qb's

chad Kelly - will be in nfl
lamar Jackson - will be in nfl
mitch trubisky - may be playing better than anyone in the country (qb wise) - probably nfl
brad kaaya - will be in nfl

Deshaun Watson coming up

acc definitely looks like the qb league
 
Stats thus far are meaningless. We have played easiest part of our schedule and FSU has played several top 25 teams.
I'm glad out freshmen got experience and few significant injuries, but this game could be anything from a crushing UM performance to a 2 touchdown loss.
They have more experienced talent and overall talent, but have not played up to it yet. Let's hope we kick their a$$es while their down.
 
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