Poptimus
Senior
- Joined
- Nov 4, 2017
- Messages
- 4,606
Continuing this discussion following our game against Louisville which the sharps were right about. Season-long action on our games currently stands:
vs. Florida: opened +7.5, closed +7, lost by 4. Sharps won.
vs. UNC: opened -6, closed -5, lost by 3. Sharps won.
vs. Bethune: opened and closed -41.5. Sharps didn't bet the game and, why not, it was Bethune. Probably had low limits.
vs. Central Michigan: opened -30, closed -30.5, won by 5. Sharps lost badly.
vs. VT: opened -13, closed -14, lost by 7. Sharps lost badly. But the warning signs were there. The ML dropped from -637 to a close of -595 and the juice on +14 rose on VT late. Late money was right, however.
vs. UVA: opened -1.5, closed -2.5, won by 8. Sharps won.
vs. GT: opened -19, closed -18, lost by 7. Mixed here because late money was on Miami to get the close to -18 -115 and it was an outright loss. Let's call this a loss by the sharps since the ML and spread rose late and I want to err on the side of being conservative with this analysis rather than puff or inflate the numbers.
vs. Pitt: opened +5.5, closed +4.5, won by 5. Sharps won.
vs. F$U: opened +4.5, closed +3, won by 17. Sharps won.
vs. Louisville: opened -5, closed -6.7 -116, won by 25. Sharps won.
Total: 6-3 ignoring Bethune that didn't move and including GT and VT as games sharps lost when it was more of a mixed bag and not a game the tea leaves would have clearly suggested there was a sharp consensus; some sharps clearly won those games.
How have the sharps bet our game against FIU? All in our favor. Pretty much linear movement from an open of -17.5 to a current line of -20.5 -116. The ML (the "moneyline", or what it costs to bet us just to win the game, for those unfamiliar with the terminology) opened -1087 and we're now at -1278. The line dropped from -20.5 to -19.5, but found support there and rose back up to its highest number yet. This line movement is great to see. Yes, large favorites sometimes lose (see GT). But almost invariably that happens when the pointspread falls. Tonight I expect us to crush FIU by at least three touchdowns.
vs. Florida: opened +7.5, closed +7, lost by 4. Sharps won.
vs. UNC: opened -6, closed -5, lost by 3. Sharps won.
vs. Bethune: opened and closed -41.5. Sharps didn't bet the game and, why not, it was Bethune. Probably had low limits.
vs. Central Michigan: opened -30, closed -30.5, won by 5. Sharps lost badly.
vs. VT: opened -13, closed -14, lost by 7. Sharps lost badly. But the warning signs were there. The ML dropped from -637 to a close of -595 and the juice on +14 rose on VT late. Late money was right, however.
vs. UVA: opened -1.5, closed -2.5, won by 8. Sharps won.
vs. GT: opened -19, closed -18, lost by 7. Mixed here because late money was on Miami to get the close to -18 -115 and it was an outright loss. Let's call this a loss by the sharps since the ML and spread rose late and I want to err on the side of being conservative with this analysis rather than puff or inflate the numbers.
vs. Pitt: opened +5.5, closed +4.5, won by 5. Sharps won.
vs. F$U: opened +4.5, closed +3, won by 17. Sharps won.
vs. Louisville: opened -5, closed -6.7 -116, won by 25. Sharps won.
Total: 6-3 ignoring Bethune that didn't move and including GT and VT as games sharps lost when it was more of a mixed bag and not a game the tea leaves would have clearly suggested there was a sharp consensus; some sharps clearly won those games.
How have the sharps bet our game against FIU? All in our favor. Pretty much linear movement from an open of -17.5 to a current line of -20.5 -116. The ML (the "moneyline", or what it costs to bet us just to win the game, for those unfamiliar with the terminology) opened -1087 and we're now at -1278. The line dropped from -20.5 to -19.5, but found support there and rose back up to its highest number yet. This line movement is great to see. Yes, large favorites sometimes lose (see GT). But almost invariably that happens when the pointspread falls. Tonight I expect us to crush FIU by at least three touchdowns.
