terdferguson
Junior
- Joined
- Oct 8, 2012
- Messages
- 1,655
I didn't bother with FIU but let's look at Mario at Oregon and Miami. Here is a statistical look at how he started and how he finished each season.
______________ Started Finished
2018 Oregon.. 5-1...... 4-3
2019 Oregon.. 6-1...... 6-1
2020 Oregon.. 3-0...... 1-3
2021 Oregon.. 9-1...... 1-3
2022 Miami..... 7-3...... 2-4
2023 Miami..... 6-2...... 1-4
2024 Miami..... 9-0...... 1-3
2025 Miami..... 5-0...... ???
This is 8 seasons. It's enough data. His teams were worse in the second half of the season every year except 2019. That year they were the same. So he doens't have a single season where his team improved in the second half or late in the season. It's all worse or the same. As Miami fans we tend to think of tanking late in the season as a Miami thing since we had that pattern with different coaches. But irregardless of Miami, this is definitely a Mario thing.
So the question is why? My theory is this. A football season is dynamic. Very dynamic. Teams change as the season progresses. They get better. They get worse. Guys get injured or become healthy, teams make adjustments to their schemes and play calling. Guys get benched and new players get inserted in starting lineups. Your opponents get film on you and you get film on them. Teams figure out your tendancies and which players they need to account for. Adjustments are made. You get the point. The amount of things that change during a season are literally endless.
How teams navigate all of this determines if you get better or worse as the season goes on. This is not Mario's strength. We all know his wheelehouse is recruiting and program building. His conservative, reactionary, keep the course philsophy is not well suited for navigating all the changes and challenges of a full season. You have to be smart. You have to anticipate. You have to self scout to stay one step ahead of your opponent. Most of all you have to be flexible and adaptable. The one thing you can't do is stick with the same thing throughout a whole season. That will never work, there's just too many variables that are constantly in motion.
I'm not sure what the solution is. Of course, the first step would be for Mario to recognzie this weakness which seems like a low odds event. We have all these analysts, how many of them are self scouting and then giving that data to the coaches? If we are doing that, how adaptable are we be based on that feedback? I don't know all the ins and outs of how the team gameplans. But in theory giving more autonomy to the coordinators to go off script and gameplan aggressively is probably the best we can hope for. Regardless, Mario is the leader of the team and he sets the tone and philosophy.
______________ Started Finished
2018 Oregon.. 5-1...... 4-3
2019 Oregon.. 6-1...... 6-1
2020 Oregon.. 3-0...... 1-3
2021 Oregon.. 9-1...... 1-3
2022 Miami..... 7-3...... 2-4
2023 Miami..... 6-2...... 1-4
2024 Miami..... 9-0...... 1-3
2025 Miami..... 5-0...... ???
This is 8 seasons. It's enough data. His teams were worse in the second half of the season every year except 2019. That year they were the same. So he doens't have a single season where his team improved in the second half or late in the season. It's all worse or the same. As Miami fans we tend to think of tanking late in the season as a Miami thing since we had that pattern with different coaches. But irregardless of Miami, this is definitely a Mario thing.
So the question is why? My theory is this. A football season is dynamic. Very dynamic. Teams change as the season progresses. They get better. They get worse. Guys get injured or become healthy, teams make adjustments to their schemes and play calling. Guys get benched and new players get inserted in starting lineups. Your opponents get film on you and you get film on them. Teams figure out your tendancies and which players they need to account for. Adjustments are made. You get the point. The amount of things that change during a season are literally endless.
How teams navigate all of this determines if you get better or worse as the season goes on. This is not Mario's strength. We all know his wheelehouse is recruiting and program building. His conservative, reactionary, keep the course philsophy is not well suited for navigating all the changes and challenges of a full season. You have to be smart. You have to anticipate. You have to self scout to stay one step ahead of your opponent. Most of all you have to be flexible and adaptable. The one thing you can't do is stick with the same thing throughout a whole season. That will never work, there's just too many variables that are constantly in motion.
I'm not sure what the solution is. Of course, the first step would be for Mario to recognzie this weakness which seems like a low odds event. We have all these analysts, how many of them are self scouting and then giving that data to the coaches? If we are doing that, how adaptable are we be based on that feedback? I don't know all the ins and outs of how the team gameplans. But in theory giving more autonomy to the coordinators to go off script and gameplan aggressively is probably the best we can hope for. Regardless, Mario is the leader of the team and he sets the tone and philosophy.
