I really enjoyed your post, very thorough.
I had a few comments:
1. Gary Pinkel out-talented his opponents. GP joined the SEC in 2012. Here is where he finished recruiting wise in conference (out of 14 teams):
2012: 11th
2013: 14th
2014: 12th
2015: 12th
I don't see how he out-talented his opponents in the SEC.
2. Dino Babers is a very interesting candidate. His record against P5 teams at Bowling Green is 3-2. He puts up a lot of points on offense. Unfortunately, he needs to do more at Bowling Green IMO. If he beats Toledo and wins the conference...I would easily give him an interview.
I believe in recruiting rankings- I do. I believe they have a very high correlation with winning in college football. There is some inherent bias, as the top rated kids are all going to schools that pay these sites for their videos and information so they get the inevitable bump up the ratings, more attention from camps, and more time being viewed.
That said, what truly has the highest correlation winning in college football? NFL draft picks. Specifically, 1st and 2nd round NFL draft picks. These players tend to be both productive and elite athletically. Over the past five years did you know Missouri has had nine players drafted in the 1st or 2nd round? That is tied with Florida, though Florida had seven 1st round picks and two 2nd round picks, as compared to the five and four for Mizzou. LSU had 12, while Alabama had 21. Auburn had five, Tennessee had three. Surprisingly, Texas A & M had 10, but a lot of that was from Mike Sherman, who really seemed to be able to identify talent on the lines, but couldn't coach. Georgia had four 1st round picks on their team, but no 2nd round picks.
Pinkel when faced with teams with lesser talent, tended to win those games. Here are his records (with points scored/allowed) against SEC foes:
Georgia- 1-3, (67-110)
Vanderbilt- 2-2 (93-71)
Alabama- 0-2 (23-84)
Kentucky- 3-1 (114-58)
Florida- 2-2 (88-64)
Tennessee- 3-0 (111-72)
Texas A & M- 1-1 (57-80)
S. Carolina- 2-1 (69-57)
Ole Miss- 1-0 (24-10)
Auburn- 0-1 (42-59)
Arkansas- 1-0 (21-14)
When he beat Florida, they were as down as they had been in years. When they brought in a new coach and his talent was down, they were smoked. They dominated Kentucky until their talent was down and lost to them this year. Georgia has beat up on them, with inferior top-end talent. Alabama has destroyed them both times they played.
It looks like to me, when Pinkel has the top-end talent, he will beat the teams he can out-talent. When he goes up against the truly talented teams, they tend to get beat.
Combined vs. the top end talent teams (Alabama, Florida, LSU, Georgia, Texas A & M, Auburn): 4-9
Combined scores of those games: 277-397, or an average margin -9.23 per game. That's significant.
