X's and O's Key Stats Heading into Lousiville

[miamimike305]

TL;DR?

 

[CaneinBroward]

Great post. Totally agree with the gist of your post.

That being said, I just don't see FSU as the 4th best team in the country right now. I'm definitely biased as a Cane fan, but seeing how they have been in 4 quarter struggles with BC, Pitt, Clemson, and Miami playing a true freshman at QB, I'd actually predict the 4 teams immediately behind them of beating them one-on-one - Washington, Oregon, Texas, and Alabama.

 

[U187]

Men Lie. Woman Lie. Numbers Don’t.

Okay, before we talk numbers, let’s talk this team and last week. Year over year, the talent is better. The most important aspect of that, we are improved with a lot of young players. Let’s take last week into perspective. At FSU, 5 true freshman started. 3 sophomores started. I don’t think we have a senior playing (except 84). This is a relatively young team. In years past, against a team that is ranked #4, the ACC champion (presumably), and a CFP team, we get boat raced. However, we out-gained them in yards with relatively the same time of possesion. Held them to 25% 3rd down conversion. A team that avgs 458 Ypg only gained 322. They were held to 1.8 yards per carry. We were tied at half and early in the third quarter we had a lead.

Two things can be true with that being said. 1. That was a positive performance that shows progress. 2. There are shortcomings that need to be improved and resolved.

Just about every position on the roster has improved and played above expectations. Unfortunately, the most important position in football has not, QB. Both LOS, the LBs have played extremely well and improved significantly compared to last year. CB and RB play has played much better than expectations. Coaches deserve credit. However, QB play and WR play has not. WR have made plays and I won’t take that away from them. But they haven’t played at a consistent level needed to win. There is not enough seperation and scheming to ge them open. Coaches Deserve blame. QB play the last 6 games is not good. No sugarcoating it. Coaches equally deserve blame.

The other piece I do need to touch on is culture. A lot of people are triggered by that word. But it matters. It’s a process to build. I feel like every week this year I have seen this team do something to put themselves in a whole, and fight back. Week to week too. Against FSU it was stacked against us. True freshman first road start. Coming off an ugly loss. “moral is down”. Down 10 points. And we battled back to take a second half lead. A loss is a loss. But this team fought hard and finished with a closer game than anyone thought. It’s a loss, but it was a winnable game we weren’t supposed to win. There are plenty of moments Saturday that also gave a glimmer of a winning culture. Kam gets caught peaking and they gave up a big play. Him and JW chase down the WR and tackle him at the 5. We utlimayly held them to a FG and that is pivotal to the game. (This isn’t the first time pivotal hustle plays impacted the game). The long TD to JG. Down two touchdowns and game pulling away. Finding a way to make a play and keep fighting, that’s promising. The LOS. The second half on offense wasn’t as good, but we for the most part were more physical at the LOS the entire game. They are older, probably have more talent, and we were able to do that. The Twitter reaction for Emory from the players is side piece. These kids care about each other and this game. That matters.

The talent is improving. The culture is without a doubt getting better. It feels like we are close. We are a few players and coaches away from being a good team. But, it’s not all sunshines and rainbows.

Category	Change	Miami	FCS Removed
Points Per Game	4	29.0	47th
Total Offense YPG	3	409.7	43rd
Offense Yards Per Play	3	6.0	32nd
Pass Efficiency O	5	136.3	56th
Pass O	2	245.2	49th
Yards Per Att	4	7.5	55th
Rush O	4	164.4	50th
Yards per Cary	2	4.8	26th
Red Zone O	9	84.85	61st
Sacks Allowed	-	1.3	20th
Completion %	20	63.51	38th
3rd Down O	12	37.93	67th
Opp. Points per game	7	22.2	38th
Total Defense YPG	—	328.9	25th
Defensive YPP	1	4.9	26th
Pass Efficiency D	6	122.1	30th
TFL	1	7.7	8th
Sacks	5	3.1	11th
Rush D	2	91.9	11th
Yards per Cary	9	3.0	6th
Red Zone D	13	86.11	81st
Pass D	12	237	74th
Completion %	6	55.63	12th
3rd Down D	7	33.59	25th
Penalty Yards Per Game	3	66	120th
Avg TOP	1	31:49	22nd
Turnover Margin	—	-.6	106th
FG%	1	86.36	19th
Avg Scoring Margin	6	+6.8	34th

The Good.
The defense and specifically the front 7 as a whole. Teams don’t just turn into a Michigan/Iowa defense. This is an offensive sport. Defense will give up points and plays. But I said it last week and I’ll say it again, our defense continues to improve. That is a tough offense we played on Saturday, with NFL talent. I strongly dislike Norvel, but he play calls a lot of unique plays that make it difficult to defend. We forced a Season high Sacks on Jordan Travis and a season low rushing for him (3 sacks and -30 yards rushing) on Saturday. Credit to Mauigoa and all the LBs. He also had his worst QBR on the season (excluding blowout to southern mizz). Part of that also goes to a solid game from the DBs. Damari Brown and Jadais Richard had their hands full with two NFL receivers. Two guys making their first career starts, held their own. That was not easy and should be acknowledged. As a team, Miami had 9 TFLs. FSU allows an avg 4.56 a game which is 27th in the country. That is again a lot a credit to the LBs, but also a solid game from the DLine. Critical for Guidry to return next year.

The Meh.
Luck. The greatest coach I ever had in my playing days once told me you need luck to win. I never understood it at first but the more I played and watch the game of football, I noticed it. FSU has been a very lucky team this year. Go back and look at games and seasons for good teams. They often are some of the luckiest teams. Luck isn’t something you can practice and obtain. But you can push for it. Not literally, but energy and momentum are a thing. The more and more you do the right things, the ball just starts to roll your way. On Saturday, the muffed punt by Coleman, just rolled their way. The safety they didn’t call for us. The botched snap and hold for a missed FG. Momentum is a snowball. Both good and bad. And unfortunately for us, we’re not on the positive momentum side. The best way we can change that is doing the little things right. Being a smart team and not having penalties. Not turning it over. Having attention to detail on special teams. When you do the right thing over and over that creates momentum and energy. Things flow your way. This team needs to do that to build that energy and positive momentum. Play to play. Week to week. Start to end of season.

The Bad.
The offensive identity. Or lack thereof. I wonder if Mario watched his former Oregon team just throw for 400 and run for 140. I wonder if he realizes we can be a physical team at the LOS, but also a dynamic aggressive one. I wonder if he realizes every team can run with tempo, just even occasionally. We don’t need to huddle and take our time and rush to get a snap of every play. Is Mario at fault for all of that, no. But, he has his hands in it. The reality is though, I don’t know what we are doing on offense Most of the time. I don’t think many others do either. The QB, Mario, and most importantly Dawson are all out of sync. There is a dynamic behind the scenes I’m not aware of. Mario doesn’t call plays. But he can tell Dawson pick up the tempo out of a timeout or possession change. It shouldn’t be this difficult for our team to have an offensive pulse. The numbers are inflated because of early in the year. But WTF happened to that offense. If you want to be a physical team and run to 60+% of the time, fine. But why are the most dynamic runners on the team not getting touches. JB yesterday, 0 and 5 yesterday. You want to go EW, Fine. You dial up easy completions. Crossing routes. Plenty of true freshman qb start around the country and can complete passes. Our WR and OC didn’t do him many favors. You want to run as much as we do, fine. But you better turn out some temp, end arounds, options. There is nothing dynamic about what we do. That’s why we have now twice led Vs CFP contenders (FSU and UNC) and they have made adjustments to hold and shut down our offense in the second half.

Moral of the Story.
Again, progress is progress. There are improvements. Talent and development has got a lot better. We are allowed to credit Mario for that. You can see glimpses of culture break through. The team has heart and fights back. We can credit Mario for that.

We also have lost games we are not supposed to. We have underperformed at the most important position in football. A player that had enough tools to once be labeled a first round pick, is now a QB that is barely a shell of his best self. I wouldn’t be surprised if he just retired and hit the links. That’s not a shot to the kid. We doesn’t look like he likes football and doesn’t play that way either. We can blame Mario for that.

There are areas of this team that are bad. There are areas that are really good. If you take off the Miami Hurricane fans glasses, Saturdays game showed plenty of promise. I got this text from a buddy who’s an Ohio State guy. “I mean you guys went toe to toe with the team who’s prob gonna win the conference and be in the playoffs and you don’t have a qb. Doesn’t happen in the blink of an eye”. Just perspective.

These next two games and bowl game are critical to the direction we continue in. We are 6-4. 8-4 and 9-4 is very attainable. There’s plenty of momentum going into the off-season if we do so. I said it for the FSU game, but I think you have to give JB a chance. TVD time here is done. When he went in the game yesterday, with a chance to tie it!, there was nothing. No emotion or fire. Find a replay of Jalen Milroe after he got benched and how responded. JB has a future on this team if he stays. Maybe it’s not next year but there is a chance at a future here. Let him play. I felt like he gave us the best chance to win against FSU and think so the rest of the year. An extra run threat to our running game puts a lot of stress on teams. It will open up the pass game. We have a great test Vs Lousiville. There shouldn’t be a doubt we can win. Same against BC. But like everyother game this year, do we let ourselves win the game, or do we do the same things to loose it.


Go Canes.

Enjoyed reading your post. Thanks for sharingUnfortunately, with TVD being the QB, I don’t think these stats mean anything. I’m going to ride Saturday’s performance all the way to National Signing Day and then to spring camp. I will not allow myself to suffer through the next three games so I’m setting my expectations very low. I just want to see our all our young players get the opportunity to play and showcase their skills

 

[Cane6]

That's a shocking line. Vegas isn't paying attention to our attrition.

With TVD likely either starting and/or playing the majority of the game, I will be placing a wager on Louisville ML

Outside of Guidry their staff will coach circles around ours and have the better QB play