Hurricane Irma Question

[LoyalCane24]

Hey I have not lived through any hurricanes since I was about 8 years old. My family moved to the west coast from miami at a young age so im not very familiar with them. Will it die down when it gets to florida? How much damage is expected? Are we sure it will even go through florida or veer off?

Can anyone that has lived through a few or knows a lot about them tell me? Thanks and my prayers go to those families who will be harmed.

 

[Brometheus]

1. If it hits us then yes. Hurricanes die down when they reach land and strengthen on water.
2. Depends on the hit and how slow/fast it moves
3. Doubt Miami will escape any impact, but its left to be determined whether it will be a direct hit or not.

 

[UMercury21]

florida is flat with warm swamp land. it doesn't slow them down or weaken them very much. irma currently going to go up the east coast, go back to sea, then hit GA/SC area. think hurricane andrew type damage for the parts of florida that it hits.

 

[UMFarArcher]

Went through the eye of a high Cat4 where it was calm for fifteen or twenty minutes.

That wind screams! Beaches and coastal areas on the north or west side closer to the eye will be pounded. Many high rises have elevators - and they're usually located in the "basement" area, so just a bit of water, and the electrical, the motors, the switches, controls, and even wiring are fried - and won't be repaired for a month or two. It's a long, hot walk for many.

Locally, just three or four inches of water - carpet and pad must be pulled, and the lower four feet of sheetrock must go - and cabinets usually soak up water, delaminate and need replacing.

That hurricane can go across Florida, lose just a little bit of steam, and tear things up all the way across. Much of the inland damage - oddly - is due to tornadoes ripping every which way.

If the eye gets within forty miles or so of land, lots of wind damage. Lots of power outages. And don't think it will be turned back on hours later. Sometimes takes two or more weeks - depending on the extent of the damages.

Even in a home that doesn't get direct water damage - without power - and without good air circulation - mold will grow in varying degrees on everything with cellulose, including leather. Gotta get and keep some kind of air circulation.

Just one big pain in the ****.

 

[Cognizantphotos]

This is what it did to Barbuda after wrecking havoc this morning. Think Houston 2.0, Houston was flood damage primarily not structural. This would be both, and a lot of it.

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[MovingZen]

Do yourself a favor and google "hurricane Andrew damage" and look at the images. A direct hit from Irma is going to be worse. All trees are pretty much going to be gone. All the pine trees in the Crossings where my mother lived were snapped off like tooth picks. You could see downtown from Kendall because there just wasn't anything to block the view anymore. I live in Charleston SC now and I'm already planning to leave. Sustained winds over 100 mph and I'm out.

 

[Cognizantphotos]

So the euro model is considered the world most accurate predictor of hurricane paths, it updates every 12 hours unlike the American one (which isn't as accurate). It last updated at 3pm today.

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[Oicu812]

Keep in mind..we have had a good bit of rain the last month. Males the ground soft,.. Slowing trees to fall easier,. And the limbs, leaves, and branches weigh more. This can get real bad real quick.

 

[HurricaneAce07]

Katrina was a category 1 hurricane when it hit Miami and Coral Gables. While housing damage was minor, there were huge numbers of trees and power lines down throughout the city. My neighborhood off of Red Road, 3 blocks from campus, was without power for about 6-7 days post storm.

See this U statue from the middle of campus? And you see that banyan tree behind it, to the right?

Well there used to be a massive banyan tree, 3-4 times the size of the one in the picture, right about where that statue is now. That was the UM spirit tree and it was completely toppled over by Katrina which, again, was only a category 1 hurricane. It took them 3 days to completely cut down and remove the tree from campus.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Hurricanes don't lose much strength while crossing flatland or Everglades in Florida. The surge damage is very real near the coast but flood damage inland is not nearly as prevalent as in other states.

It's all about wind, and potentially tornadoes. The structures theoretically can withstand stated velocity but none of the tests fully replicate or anticipate what Mother Nature can provide.

If this is a near-direct or direct hit at Category 4 or 5 there will be homes leveled everywhere with countless rooftops ripped away. Note the images and videos from Barbuda. The community will be devastated but pull together during the long and emotional clean up and rebuild process. It won't be just football that won't mean anything. Other hobbies or sidelights will be set aside as well.

I wasn't in town for Andrew. I was in Las Vegas and didn't visit until four months later, just before Christmas. When I toured Homestead and the surrounding areas I was in utter disbelief at the destruction. And this was months later after substantial cleanup.

Now imagine a more powerful storm hitting mainstream Miami instead of less populated areas to the south. The damage is unimaginable. Sure the building codes are stronger but it can't account for everything.

After Andrew while visiting the area where my parents lived I was astonished at the lack of trees. Gone. Everywhere. There was no such thing as shade or tree cover. The golf courses didn't have doglegs anymore because the trees that enable doglegs in this area were no longer there.

Root for Irma to jog 40 or 50 miles east. That's all I ask. It would be significant damage but not catastrophic. Lately every time there are indications of an easterly shift the models pull back and restore to a direct hit. The only good news is that the models are seldom perfectly accurate 4 days out. Even the touted Euro model has an average error of 74 miles at that range.

Irma needs to slow down slightly and move north slightly more than forecast to enable that easterly path.

 

[sfcane2016]

Did Hurricane Andrew in '92, leaving the U to ride it out with my Folks in West Kendall. Bad in Kendall, but the Crossings got smoked and I remember riding my bicycle down to my Sister's house in the Crossings (couldn't drive on the roads) and it got progressively worse heading south along 137th Ave. I literally saw a U-Haul truck on top of a house, and also could clearly see the tornado 'paths' within the affected areas too.

But the scariest Hurricane was Hurricane David in '79. It was spinning like a **** and headed right for Miami before it headed North at the last moment and snuck up the East Coast. Anyone else on hear remember David?

 

[Houtxcane]

I was a going into my senior year at UM when Andrew (cat 5 storm) hit in late August. Lived off campus in South Miami, but only 3 or 4 miles from campus. Although the center of Andrew was reportedly over Homestead, I can tell you for certain that the eye also went through where I was.

As I recall, the wind and rain started to get noticeably bad when it got to Cat 1 and then Cat 2. The TV and radio were still on then and reported the conditions. This was late evening, perhaps around 9ish, may be later (can't recall the specifics.) By Cat 3, TV and power was cut. Only able to get info from the Radio. Cat 3 is also where things got really scary. The worst was the wind gusts which according to later reports, got well over 170 mph. As the night went on, things got progressively worse. The wind gusts came in batches. So things somewhat calm down for a few minutes before the next one kicked off. Then for about 20 or 30 minutes, it was completely calm. That was the eye of the storm. After that, things got bad again. Andrew was a relatively quick moving storm. So by may be 3 or 4 am in the morning, things improved significantly. By 6 am, everything returned to normal and people started to go outside to see the damage.

In the aftermath, trees down everywhere. Projectiles of building materials flew many blocks. I had a stop sign about a block away blew into my yard, so I kept it for souvenir and still have it. Power was out for over 2 weeks in my part of the town. My neighborhood used well water, so no power means no water. Traffic lights were out everywhere, some down on the street (it is huge when you see it in front of you on the ground). Andrew was not a major flooding event, so water wasn't a big issue unless you lived near the water. UM was only back to normal operations after 3 or 4 weeks. Having lived through Andrew, I am not optimistic with Irma being a bigger cat 5 storm and potentially hit Miami dead center. I would advise anyone in Miami to not chance this one and evacuate. I would stay in place up to Cat 2. Anything over that is not worth the gamble.

 

[Zbrod95]

OP, I live in an area hit hard by Wilma. The entrance to my neighborhood(In Coral Springs)was blocked by two huge trees...took 4 months to get it out, lost power for 3 days and I only lost it for three days because I was on the same power grid or whatever it's called as the hospital, Busiest fire house in the city/Fire Headquarters, and the police department(had friends that didn't get power for 2 months almost). Hopefully this time it's the same thing because I'm on the grid of two schools and another fire house, my house needed a new roof and I had a screened in patio area and the storm decided to dump it in the pool....one guy in my neighborhood almost had his house cut in half by the biggest tree on the block....literally it went through his roof and he's lucky the foundation of his home was still intact and I believe Wilma made landfall as a Cat. 3 in Broward. If you live in Miami get out....the homes down there aren't built the same as they are up here, this neighborhood was built up in the 70's I believe and the fire houses are close in proximity to everything here with Margate-Coconut Creek and Tamarac fire being able to assist with anything within 10 minutes max. Wilma was nothing compared to what's coming....

 

[HumbleCane]

I went through Andrew, my house was in the path of the northern eye wall about one mile inland. 165+ MPH winds. I stayed inside my home as the wind shreaked outside for hours. By the light of then next day, I could see the result. There was no roof left unscathed, all were stripped to plywood. There was no green anywhere except for the grass, which was under a couple of feet of water. I climbed on to my roof to look around... and it was like a scene from the Twilight Zone.

If Irma were to hit at 185, the damage would be even worse. There was a concrete block building in my area that got destroyed by that wind. Another 20 MPH would do MUCH worse damage.

That said, the storm is said to probably slow down a bit, I have heard estimates of 145. Still bad, of course, but survivable. Honestly I still suffer what seems like a kind of PTSD from that storm, it changed everything for me. I dont live down there anymore (central FL now) , but my family does, and I am worried for them.