How in holy hell are we favored on Friday??

mikedeep97

Redshirt Freshman
Joined
Mar 23, 2013
Messages
198
I could honestly see Miami coming out and dominating this game from start to finish. Diaz held this offense in check last season. Clean up the bullshyt we've seen on D to start games and we should win something like 34-17. Virginia is a tough, scrappy, prideful group. They're going to want a dog-fight, slug-fest. If we come out and don't shyt the bed then we win easily.

But Manny has to inspire this team to play fast from the word go. I've only seen that one time this year. My money wouldn't be on seeing it again before FSU.

Smart money is Miami winning by 4 because it's a night game, at home, on a Friday. 24-20.
 

rokulika

DIE HOMER SCUM
Joined
Nov 4, 2011
Messages
17,558
I could honestly see Miami coming out and dominating this game from start to finish. Diaz held this offense in check last season. Clean up the bullshyt we've seen on D to start games and we should win something like 34-17. Virginia is a tough, scrappy, prideful group. They're going to want a dog-fight, slug-fest. If we come out and don't shyt the bed then we win easily.

But Manny has to inspire this team to play fast from the word go. I've only seen that one time this year. My money wouldn't be on seeing it again before FSU.

Smart money is Miami winning by 4 because it's a night game, at home, on a Friday. 24-20.
No offense, man. But I literally stopped reading after the first sentence.
 

Don canon

End PAPI now, free the Miami offense in 2019.
Joined
Aug 3, 2018
Messages
1,088
Cause we winning, only thing I like named Virginia is this sweet little Mexican thing that can suck the chrome off a bumper hitch.
 

rokulika

DIE HOMER SCUM
Joined
Nov 4, 2011
Messages
17,558
I could honestly see Miami coming out and dominating this game from start to finish. Diaz held this offense in check last season. Clean up the bullshyt we've seen on D to start games and we should win something like 34-17. Virginia is a tough, scrappy, prideful group. They're going to want a dog-fight, slug-fest. If we come out and don't shyt the bed then we win easily.

But Manny has to inspire this team to play fast from the word go. I've only seen that one time this year. My money wouldn't be on seeing it again before FSU.

Smart money is Miami winning by 4 because it's a night game, at home, on a Friday. 24-20.
Ok, I read the rest of your post. And I do agree that if we can somehow not get off to a slow start (for the first time since ND 2017?) things could cascade and get ugly for UVA. Miami is good for a dominant showing once every few years and this might be it. It will take an early TD or turnover to get things going. The team might actually come out fired up for once since it's a Friday, alternate uniforms, lost last week, etc.
 

HRIKN

Freshman
Joined
Jan 30, 2019
Messages
144
Don't forget the odds makers put a number up to get one side or the other to pour money into backing their school. Watch the odds change as one side bets more money than the other. Also look for any large odds changes if someone drops a large bet at the last minute. Vegas does not care who wins the game, only that they don't care to be on the wrong side of the number and lose big. They hope to make up any losses by collecting on the vig.
 

WhatTheHell

"WE CANT DEMAND PERFECTION.”
Joined
Mar 7, 2012
Messages
19,776
Vegas is daring people to pound UVA.

They probably saw what everyone else except Manny and Enos did: Perry unleashes the downfield passing game and true danger of the Miami playmakers.

Our coaches suck, but we're more talented than every Coastal team we play.

I've decided to stay away from this line.
 

Awsi Dooger

Junior
Joined
Jan 20, 2012
Messages
2,298
Don't forget the odds makers put a number up to get one side or the other to pour money into backing their school. Watch the odds change as one side bets more money than the other. Also look for any large odds changes if someone drops a large bet at the last minute. Vegas does not care who wins the game, only that they don't care to be on the wrong side of the number and lose big. They hope to make up any losses by collecting on the vig.
Oh brother
 

Awsi Dooger

Junior
Joined
Jan 20, 2012
Messages
2,298
I understand home field however if this game were at Virginia I would have guessed Virginia would be at least 7
That is almost exactly correct. Virginia's power rating is generally 4 to 5 points above Miami's, depending on which source you use. Given home field on a Saturday and Virginia would be roughly -7.

However, Virginia at home on a short week would be a larger favorite, closer to -7.5 or -8. Home teams always receive benefit of a doubt in those short week games, unless the road team had a bye the week before.

Miami at home on a short week is given benefit of a doubt. That's why the Canes are small favorite in the -1.5 to -2 range.

None of this is complicated if you follow the situational variables. In Las Vegas it is more difficult to pick winners than simply get a great pointspread on one game after another. That is a major part of it and it is one of the reasons that it is far easier to win at sports betting in that town than outsiders realize. You aren't sitting like a dolt in a chair with one wager at a standard number. If you have the proper instincts, know the right people, and do the legwork, then it is a mathematical situation of shifting small theoretical disadvantage to small advantage. Volume and an edge. Now that I'm out of town I don't enjoy those edges so my football results haven't been great for a few years. But I've done well on atypical stuff like the world track and field championships last week.

Virginia's power rating is not very high. They have been basically 30th to 37th in the country all year. Somehow the perception here has placed them far above that level. Meanwhile the ACC Coastal is condensed. That works on the high end and also the low end. Miami doesn't deserve to be much of a favorite or much of a dog.

The only exception now would be Georgia Tech. That team's power rating has plummeted and it now severely low, one of the worst I remember within the ACC in recent years. Miami would be a double digit favorite in that game if played right now. Georgia Tech's power rating is now 7-8 points below Virginia Tech.
 

B Run

Freshman
Joined
Dec 31, 2018
Messages
106
That is almost exactly correct. Virginia's power rating is generally 4 to 5 points above Miami's, depending on which source you use. Given home field on a Saturday and Virginia would be roughly -7.

However, Virginia at home on a short week would be a larger favorite, closer to -7.5 or -8. Home teams always receive benefit of a doubt in those short week games, unless the road team had a bye the week before.

Miami at home on a short week is given benefit of a doubt. That's why the Canes are small favorite in the -1.5 to -2 range.

None of this is complicated if you follow the situational variables. In Las Vegas it is more difficult to pick winners than simply get a great pointspread on one game after another. That is a major part of it and it is one of the reasons that it is far easier to win at sports betting in that town than outsiders realize. You aren't sitting like a dolt in a chair with one wager at a standard number. If you have the proper instincts, know the right people, and do the legwork, then it is a mathematical situation of shifting small theoretical disadvantage to small advantage. Volume and an edge. Now that I'm out of town I don't enjoy those edges so my football results haven't been great for a few years. But I've done well on atypical stuff like the world track and field championships last week.

Virginia's power rating is not very high. They have been basically 30th to 37th in the country all year. Somehow the perception here has placed them far above that level. Meanwhile the ACC Coastal is condensed. That works on the high end and also the low end. Miami doesn't deserve to be much of a favorite or much of a dog.

The only exception now would be Georgia Tech. That team's power rating has plummeted and it now severely low, one of the worst I remember within the ACC in recent years. Miami would be a double digit favorite in that game if played right now. Georgia Tech's power rating is now 7-8 points below Virginia Tech.
There is absolutely no doubt for me baseball is the best sport to bet on by far...very, very successful on baseball this year
 

HRIKN

Freshman
Joined
Jan 30, 2019
Messages
144
As usual, the betting geniuses completely missed it. Instead of the spread going toward UVA, we're now favored by two.
The line may move up or down every day, depending on how much money is being bet on UM or VAG. By adjusting the point spread, it induces bettors to put their money down on one school or the other. Vegas is trying to keep their losses to a minimum or possibly even come out ahead. They don't really care who wins.
 

holycane

Senior
Joined
Dec 29, 2013
Messages
4,337
Beat Virginia, Win @Pitt, and lose to FIU :distrust:.

The fact that we are even nervous about UVA, PITT, DUKE is pathetic! How the hell has the standard been lowered to this?
Been bitching about this for years. We are the worst team in the ACC.
 
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