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Gentlemen and Scholars, get in here

MiamiVice7

MiamiVice7

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I want to carve out a space for our best and brightest to make the case for Miami in the CFP. It’s scattered in a million places, let’s put it in one spot.

First, I think we should steelman the ND over Miami argument. In my profession, it’s wise to contemplate the other side’s best position and deal with it head on. Don’t hide the bad stuff. It works against you when your opposition points it out. Hit it first and show why you win anyway. For example, don’t show our common opponent scores and leave Cuse out. It’s there, deal with it.

Then, we need to crystallize our best arguments over ND (and others, I suppose), make it tight, get all our stats/metrics together, and put together quick hitters we and others can blast all over social media. Hold that **** up to the light until it’s blinding.

You might think it’s an exercise in futility, but I disagree. We might as well give it a shot.

There are people inclined to argue in our favor, from us regular folks and local media to country stars and national media. It’s not crazy to think we, as diehards, can put together some of the best arguments which end up getting disseminated on a large stage. Let’s help those who are trying to help us.

We have both the time and ability to influence, that’s the world we live in. And the decision makers can’t help but hear it if the noise is loud enough. We’ve seen it before.

It’s a project worth doing. We should be as good at it as anyone. And why tf not?
 
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QED
 
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I posted this on another thread. If you look at the analytics and the on-field results this is a very easy decision to put Miami in.


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From the CFP website:
The committee will select the teams using a process that distinguishes among otherwise comparable teams by considering:
  • Strength of schedule,
  • Head-to-head competition,
  • Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and,
  • Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.

Soo based on SOS technically AL is the highest but they've been ranked below OU because OU owns the H2H which is completely reasonable. ND being ahead of AL is inconsistent though. The only argument they can make for having ND ahead of AL would be better GC and efficiency ratings. So if that's the case then Miami should also be ahead of AL since Miami is owns the gc and efficiency ratings against AL.

Let's continue to dig in:

Miami owns the H2H against ND and owns the common opponents comparison. ND has a slight edge on SOS/SOR. Here's another GIANT inconsistency. AL has the same slight edges on the sos/sor front against OU. But OU is ahead of AL because of the h2h (which is 100% reasonable). Miami has not gotten the same treatment with nd.

Bottomline - we should be ahead of nd. The committee has hard data points to review - no more hypotheticals. Miami beat ND, beat common opponents better than ND and is neck and neck to ND with analytics they touted as the reason for having nd far ahead of us.
 
We beat them head to head; we have better common opponent final scores. Then there’s the below, which are virtually identical. With identical 10-2 records.

I know you’re looking for more. But this isn’t rocket science. It really shouldn’t even be that much of a debate. If we didn’t play H2h and were both 9-2, debate on.

When your opponent is pointing to HALFTIME SCORES, one of which you won by 35 …. You’ve already won.



SOR:
Mia:14
ND:13

SOS:
Mia: 44
ND:42

GC
Mia: 6
ND: 5

Efficiency:
Mia: 7
ND: 5
 
Canesrule230 said:
I posted this on another thread. If you look at the analytics and the on-field results this is a very easy decision to put Miami in.


1764521051477.png



From the CFP website:
The committee will select the teams using a process that distinguishes among otherwise comparable teams by considering:
  • Strength of schedule,
  • Head-to-head competition,
  • Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and,
  • Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.

Soo based on SOS technically AL is the highest but they've been ranked below OU because OU owns the H2H which is completely reasonable. ND being ahead of AL is inconsistent though. The only argument they can make for having ND ahead of AL would be better GC and efficiency ratings. So if that's the case then Miami should also be ahead of AL since Miami is owns the gc and efficiency ratings against AL.

Let's continue to dig in:

Miami owns the H2H against ND and owns the common opponents comparison. ND has a slight edge on SOS/SOR. Here's another GIANT inconsistency. AL has the same slight edges on the sos/sor front against OU. But OU is ahead of AL because of the h2h (which is 100% reasonable). Miami has not gotten the same treatment with nd.

Bottomline - we should be ahead of nd. The committee has hard data points to review - no more hypotheticals. Miami beat ND, beat common opponents better than ND and is neck and neck to ND with analytics they touted as the reason for having nd far ahead of us.
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My man.
 
MiamiVice7 said:
Good point. You’re both a gentleman and a scholar.
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That should be enough, but to flesh the argument out a bit more:

- we are indistinguishable from ND in the clanker metrics
- we went 4-0 in first third of the season, they went 2-2, and we beat them.
- we went 2-2 in the middle third of the season, they went 4-0, points for ND
- we both went 4-0 to end the season killing everyone we both played (Correction ND did not kill the final 4 opponents...Boston College, h/t @Moecane)
- we both handily beat the same 4 common opponents

Therefore, the only argument in favor of ND is their better performance in the middle of the season. No way should that weigh more than the H2H. We should be ranked ahead of them.

(I think ND is a playoff team too this year, but since there is likely no chance the CFP does the obvious right thing and ranks us both ahead of OU & Bama, they gotta get funked. Only way ND should get bumped in my mind is if Bama beats UGA in the SEC-CG. Perhaps the Ole Miss cluster**** will be our saving grace)
 
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Why does it feel like everyone knows that we deserve to be in, that all these stats and hard facts tell the more compelling tale, but the ND bias will somehow fûķç us and all the talking heads will have their BS ways of explaining it all away.

If we are 11-1, this is all moot.
 
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I don’t really have a strong case but I just have to believe that someone on the committee will grow a spine and a conscience and realize that Miami is clearly one of the 12 best teams in the country. Maybe I’m a fool.
 
The best argument for ND > Miami is the one that was used to justify the initial ranking separation after our SMU loss: they are on a stronger trajectory. They've now won ten straight, all convincingly. A ND fan would argue that based on the streak the Irish went on last year, this momentum is likely to continue. Whereas Miami starts hot and fades down the stretch, Notre Dame gets better as the season progresses.

IMO that's their best argument. I don't find it particularly compelling, as it asks us to reject on-field results in favor of extrapolation and our own bias-prone intuitions.
 
flips said:
That should be enough, but to flesh the argument out a bit more:

- we are indistinguishable from ND in the clanker metrics
- we went 4-0 in first third of the season, they went 2-2, and we beat them.
- we went 2-2 in the middle third of the season, they went 4-0, points for ND
- we both went 4-0 to end the season killing everyone we both played
- we both handily beat the same 4 common opponents

Therefore, the only argument in favor of ND is their better performance in the middle of the season. No way should that weigh more than the H2H. We should be ranked ahead of them.

(I think ND is a playoff team too this year, but since there is likely no chance the CFP does the obvious right thing and ranks us both ahead of OU & Bama, they gotta get funked. Only way ND should get bumped in my mind is if Bama beats UGA in the SEC-CG. Perhaps the Ole Miss cluster**** will be our saving grace)
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The correct decision is to kick OU out for ND and Miami.
 
2 spots for these 6
  • ND
  • Bama
  • BYU
  • Miami
  • Vandy
  • Texas
Some say Bama and BYU are guaranteed not to drop because conf champ can't hurt. If it ends up being a rule, then it's over for both ND and Miami

If the conf champ rule doesn't hold for BYU but does for BAMA ($EC), and TT beats BYU, then it likely comes down to ND/Miami for the last post (cue the analytics)

BYU could drop Tuesday which removes the "conf champ rule" from their scenario since they are out going into the conf championship
 
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Fsu beat bama. We beat fsu
Uf beat texas. We beat uf

None of ND’s wins has a win on that level.
 
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I don't know the exacts, but I'm sure one of you guys Caan dig this up:

1. We have a Top 10 Scoring Defense in the Country
2. I believe they mentioned in the broadcast that we've won the 3rd most games by 17+ points in the country

That speaks to a complete team on both sides of the ball.

Also, not necessarily a data point, but I've been seeing mention of performance w/o key contributors. In our loses we were without significant players in offense and defense, that 100% had an impact on those games. And we've managed to either return players or develop players since to fill those rolls in a championship manner, where it won't impact us negatively forward.

One more thing that also isn't getting enough attention are the Florida and Florida State victories. Not only how the Noles beat Bama but also how A&M got mopped by Texas who got mopped by Florida, who we mopped. And Louisville lost several games after beating us partially due to QB injury, and when Moss returned, blanked Kentucky 41-0 (SEC) who destroyed that same Florida team that dominated Texas who just dominated A&M that beat ND. Those scenarios should be painted out more because, margin of victory aside, I don't think the teams we've lost to's loses themselves look bad like some of these
 
My question is..

What week marks the invisible line where our head to head victory matters?

If it doesn't hold as much weight because we played in week one, would it hold more weight if we played in week 4? Or week 6? Or week 8?

Head to head tiebreakers are applied to every conference's standings in every sport.

The committee is the only body basing the importance of a head to head victory on the week the victory took place.
 
flips said:
That should be enough, but to flesh the argument out a bit more:

- we are indistinguishable from ND in the clanker metrics
- we went 4-0 in first third of the season, they went 2-2, and we beat them.
- we went 2-2 in the middle third of the season, they went 4-0, points for ND
- we both went 4-0 to end the season killing everyone we both played
- we both handily beat the same 4 common opponents

Therefore, the only argument in favor of ND is their better performance in the middle of the season. No way should that weigh more than the H2H. We should be ranked ahead of them.

(I think ND is a playoff team too this year, but since there is likely no chance the CFP does the obvious right thing and ranks us both ahead of OU & Bama, they gotta get funked. Only way ND should get bumped in my mind is if Bama beats UGA in the SEC-CG. Perhaps the Ole Miss cluster**** will be our saving grace)
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Correction ND did not kill the final 4 opponents...Boston College
 
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