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Final EPA offense/defense graphs

OrangeBowlMagic

OrangeBowlMagic

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I’ve posted a few of these throughout the season, but these are the final EPA numbers for offense and defense now that the regular season is over.

These are adjusted for opponent and for location, so beating up on Broward Community College at home doesn’t move the needle like beating Georgia on the road would.

But the moral of the story here is, the defense was slightly below average. We had about an average rushing defense, we had a slightly below average passing defense. We obviously gave up way too many explosive plays and the coverage was bad at times, but the unit played about what was expected, imo. Not good enough, nothing to get excited about, but overall, not flat out embarrassing.

The offense was a complete abortion. There were only a few offenses that were worse in both metrics. Rushing offense was worse than passing, but they were actually pretty close to being equally horrific. Just look at this. There are only 4 teams who were overall worse. UMass, Rutgers, Iowa, and Northwestern. That’s all. This is 100000% grounds to be fired as an OC, obviously. Even with the injuries, an above average OC gets us to 8-9 wins by having an average offense.

OU is a good comparison example. Their defense was about average, like ours. But their offense was slightly above average. Not great, but just OK. They went 6-6 with their last 3 losses all by 3 points. Average team, just a bounce or two away from being 8-4ish.

But pair our meh defense with a truly historic offense, and you get 5-7 with multiple blowout losses.
72433188-9546-47B3-8F3E-F6CD4C9331B8.png
EF4CFE8E-15CF-4745-BDEC-1270646D8EBB.png
 
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Interesting to see both Michigan and Oregon up there with the best rushing offenses, Mario's dream. And us to be so bad at it...🤔
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
I’ve posted a few of these throughout the season, but these are the final EPA numbers for offense and defense now that the regular season is over.

These are adjusted for opponent and for location, so beating up on Broward Community College at home doesn’t move the needle like beating Georgia on the road would.

But the moral of the story here is, the defense was slightly below average. We had about an average rushing defense, we had a slightly below average passing defense. We obviously gave up way too many explosive plays and the coverage was bad at times, but the unit played about what was expected, imo. Not good enough, nothing to get excited about, but overall, not flat out embarrassing.

The offense was a complete abortion. There were only a few offenses that were worse in both metrics. Rushing offense was worse than passing, but they were actually pretty close to being equally horrific. Just look at this. There are only 4 teams who were overall worse. UMass, Rutgers, Iowa, and Northwestern. That’s all. This is 100000% grounds to be fired as an OC, obviously. Even with the injuries, an above average OC gets us to 8-9 wins by having an average offense.

OU is a good comparison example. Their defense was about average, like ours. But their offense was slightly above average. Not great, but just OK. They went 6-6 with their last 3 losses all by 3 points. Average team, just a bounce or two away from being 8-4ish.

But pair our meh defense with a truly historic offense, and you get 5-7 with multiple blowout losses.View attachment 216880View attachment 216879
Click to expand...
Those are always great visualizations. Thanks for posting.
 
That OC from Kansas may be worth checking out. Anyone who can create one of the best offenses in the country there is doing something right. Pretty balanced attack as well.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I’ve posted a few of these throughout the season, but these are the final EPA numbers for offense and defense now that the regular season is over.

These are adjusted for opponent and for location, so beating up on Broward Community College at home doesn’t move the needle like beating Georgia on the road would.

But the moral of the story here is, the defense was slightly below average. We had about an average rushing defense, we had a slightly below average passing defense. We obviously gave up way too many explosive plays and the coverage was bad at times, but the unit played about what was expected, imo. Not good enough, nothing to get excited about, but overall, not flat out embarrassing.

The offense was a complete abortion. There were only a few offenses that were worse in both metrics. Rushing offense was worse than passing, but they were actually pretty close to being equally horrific. Just look at this. There are only 4 teams who were overall worse. UMass, Rutgers, Iowa, and Northwestern. That’s all. This is 100000% grounds to be fired as an OC, obviously. Even with the injuries, an above average OC gets us to 8-9 wins by having an average offense.

OU is a good comparison example. Their defense was about average, like ours. But their offense was slightly above average. Not great, but just OK. They went 6-6 with their last 3 losses all by 3 points. Average team, just a bounce or two away from being 8-4ish.

But pair our meh defense with a truly historic offense, and you get 5-7 with multiple blowout losses.View attachment 216880View attachment 216879
Click to expand...
Thanks for the post! The interesting thing to me on the offensive chart is that the only P5 teams we beat were all worse than us in passing offensive per this chart. Shows how important throwing the ball in today's game is.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I’ve posted a few of these throughout the season, but these are the final EPA numbers for offense and defense now that the regular season is over.

These are adjusted for opponent and for location, so beating up on Broward Community College at home doesn’t move the needle like beating Georgia on the road would.

But the moral of the story here is, the defense was slightly below average. We had about an average rushing defense, we had a slightly below average passing defense. We obviously gave up way too many explosive plays and the coverage was bad at times, but the unit played about what was expected, imo. Not good enough, nothing to get excited about, but overall, not flat out embarrassing.

The offense was a complete abortion. There were only a few offenses that were worse in both metrics. Rushing offense was worse than passing, but they were actually pretty close to being equally horrific. Just look at this. There are only 4 teams who were overall worse. UMass, Rutgers, Iowa, and Northwestern. That’s all. This is 100000% grounds to be fired as an OC, obviously. Even with the injuries, an above average OC gets us to 8-9 wins by having an average offense.

OU is a good comparison example. Their defense was about average, like ours. But their offense was slightly above average. Not great, but just OK. They went 6-6 with their last 3 losses all by 3 points. Average team, just a bounce or two away from being 8-4ish.

But pair our meh defense with a truly historic offense, and you get 5-7 with multiple blowout losses.View attachment 216880View attachment 216879
Click to expand...

How close we are to Iowa knowing the disaster
they were on offense this year lol
 
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Ryanmilli said:
That OC from Kansas may be worth checking out. Anyone who can create one of the best offenses in the country there is doing something right. Pretty balanced attack as well.
Click to expand...

I’m intrigued, because you are 100% correct about the producing at Kansas aspect. He is probably a little too green for Mario, but that is the “more with less” type that we need. Only question I have is it him or Leipold calling the plays?
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I’ve posted a few of these throughout the season, but these are the final EPA numbers for offense and defense now that the regular season is over.

These are adjusted for opponent and for location, so beating up on Broward Community College at home doesn’t move the needle like beating Georgia on the road would.

But the moral of the story here is, the defense was slightly below average. We had about an average rushing defense, we had a slightly below average passing defense. We obviously gave up way too many explosive plays and the coverage was bad at times, but the unit played about what was expected, imo. Not good enough, nothing to get excited about, but overall, not flat out embarrassing.

The offense was a complete abortion. There were only a few offenses that were worse in both metrics. Rushing offense was worse than passing, but they were actually pretty close to being equally horrific. Just look at this. There are only 4 teams who were overall worse. UMass, Rutgers, Iowa, and Northwestern. That’s all. This is 100000% grounds to be fired as an OC, obviously. Even with the injuries, an above average OC gets us to 8-9 wins by having an average offense.

OU is a good comparison example. Their defense was about average, like ours. But their offense was slightly above average. Not great, but just OK. They went 6-6 with their last 3 losses all by 3 points. Average team, just a bounce or two away from being 8-4ish.

But pair our meh defense with a truly historic offense, and you get 5-7 with multiple blowout losses.View attachment 216880View attachment 216879
Click to expand...

If the Southern Miss QB could hit the broad side of a barn, we would have had another close loss. There were recievers running open all over the field.
 
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