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For people that do not understand, and question things like "Why TAMU is ranked #8 "....I'm going to do my best at justifying the CFP rankings.
(I was going to post this in the CFP Rankings thread, but its pretty long)
Top 20 has:
- 5 ACC teams (FSU, UNC, VT, UL, and Clem).
- 5 Big 10 teams (Mich, OSU, Neb, Wisc, and Pedo State)
- 4 Pac-12 teams ( Wash, UTah, USC, Colorado )
- 3 SEC teams (Aub, TAMU, Bama)
- 3 Big 12 teams (Okla, Olka St, and WV)
The last 5 ranked teams include:
-The 2 G-5 Teams with the least amount of losses (Undefeated Western Michigan, 1 Loss Boise State) they are ranked #21 and #22
-Washington State, the lowest ranked P-5 team with 2 losses
-LSU/Arkansas who I will attempt to entertain below
Using Records to argue rankings:
-4 undefeated P5 teams left, and all of them occupy the top 4 slots.
-Western Michigan is undefeated in G5 and is #21 in the CFP (Western Michigan is [URL=https://www.canesinsight.com/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=1]#1 4[/URL] in the AP Polls).
-Only 4 teams remain that have 1 loss, OSU and Louisville could both be good play off teams...they are rightfuly 5/6
----West Virginia is 1 loss in the Pac-12, but has not played against Oklahoma, Texas, or Baylor yet. Has only beaten teams hovering around .500...They are still respectfully ranked [URL=https://www.canesinsight.com/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=1]#1 1[/URL] even though some lower ranked ACC teams would probably blow them out (VT, FSU, UNC, and even us, not-ranked Miami could probably beat them handily based on their play)
----Boise State is 1 loss in the G5, and is 1 spot under the undefeated G5 team (Western Michigan) at #22 .
Then you have a bunch of 2 loss teams and have to go by SoS and game performance to decide who is ranked higher.
There are 12 teams in the Top 25 with 2 losses.
#7 Wisconsin was given a huge bump at the beginning of the year...from beating a SEC team (LSU). They have loss against their (much better) in conference opponents however...both Mich/OSU are Playoff caliber teams that Wisconsin lost to. They are the only 2 loss team in the nation to lose both of their games to a top 5 opponent.
#9 Auburn is the closest 2 loss team to Wisconsin...They have loss both games to: Clemson/TAMU...this is where the rankings get tricky. Auburn has not done anything to drop in the rankings....but they haven't beaten anyone worth ranking them in the top 10 I will say...one of those cases where "early losses are better than late losses" because Auburn has simply won out since losing to Clem/TAMU who were both top 10. They are technically one of 2 teams in the nation to lose both of their games to a top 10 opponent....cept they didn't get blown out
#8 TAMU has a "better quality loss" than Auburn...They loss to the highest ranked team, and hold the highest regarded "head to head" win over another 7-2 team. They are the ONLY 2 loss team to beat another "2 loss team with losses to higher ranked teams". This all means that while Auburn/TAMU has the same record, TAMU will remain higher ranked than Auburn...and unfortunately...
#1 0 Pedo State is one of 2 teams to have a win over a Playoff caliber opponent. Although their 2 losses are unspectacular compared to the teams ranked near them, they can always claim beating OSU in a solid game...They beat them without needing 4-5 turnovers. The other team with a win over a playoff caliber opponent is Clemson (over Louisivlle).
[URL=https://www.canesinsight.com/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=1]#1 1[/URL] Oklahoma/#1 2 Colorado is similar to Auburn. They loss to a playoff team (Ohio State/Michigan) and loss to a P-5 opponent...or in Oklahoma's case...loss to Houston who was #6 at the time they played...both of the teams loss to opponents who are not top 15 quality, so they can not be put in the same category as Auburn. They have also not beaten any teams as good as, or better than Auburn to get the same bump that TAMU has gotten from beating Auburn. Ranking between Oklahoma/Colorado is trying to decide if losing to Houston or USC is worse..
#1 3 Oklahoma State...I'm honestly clueless how they are ranked this high...I think they should be under 3 loss FSU to be honest. They loss to both Oregon and Central Michigan...they do however have a quality win over previously undefeated West Virginia.
[URL=https://www.canesinsight.com/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=1]#1 4[/URL] Virginia Tech is tricky...they loss to a Tenn and Syracuse...both unranked and both not very excusable...Tenn loss is more understandable since it was early in the season and they fumbled almost every 6 plays it seemed like...much different team since that loss. Ranking them at 14 means that winning out (including a win against Clem) would still not make them a play off team..they will lose that ACC playoff slot to Louisville, assuming they both win out..However...I'm not entirely certain, but they could end up playing in the BCS game as a 2 loss team over a 1 loss Clemson...with Clemson dropping all the way to the Russel Athletic Bowl as the #1 ACC team picked. So the rankings at this point still matters even with them being outside of the Playoff race.
#1 5 Utah is similar to Colorado/Oklahoma...however...their loss to a "Playoff Caliber" team is Washington...who is obviously not very respected much by the CFP committee...Their wins are worse than the 2 loss teams ranked above...But their 2nd loss coming from Washington is not THAT disrespected to be ranked below the next few guys.
#1 6 West Virginia is the lowest ranked 1 loss team...can't put them any higher since they have a weak schedule (Similar to Nebraska)...Can't justify them being ranked lower than #20 with only 1 loss however.
#1 7 UNC as we all know is similar to VT. They loss to a SEC East team and a P-5 opponent...However, just like Auburn/TAMU...UNC will remain lower ranked than in-conference opponent VT as long as they share the same record..
For scenario purposes....Only situation that would bump UNC over VT is if they were to have a win over someone in a similar conference, but ranked higher. If UNC was 7-2 with a win over UGA, but a loss to a different team, they would still be ranked below VT...since Tenn > UGA right now...So UGA would have to be 8-1 for UNC to be ranked above VT....BUT..in that scenario...a win over UGA for UNC, would've carried both VT/UNC above Oklahoma, and they would probably both be ranked 2-3 spots higher.
#1 8 FSU is Over ranked. They have 2 losses to 2 playoff caliber teams (UL, Clem)..but they also have a loss to UNC and are ranked right below them. I think they are ranked too high, considering they have no quality wins and looked bad in EVERY SINGLE WIN. Only win that was outright was against Charleston Southern. They are the highest ranked 3 loss team because 2 of those losses are against elite teams, and the third is against another top 20 opponent...If they were in the coastal, they would still be 6-3 with likely losses to GT/VT instead of UL/Clem...However they would definitely be at the bottom of the Top 25 instead of the middle.
#1 9 Nebraska is the 2nd team in the nation with 2 losses against top 10 teams...However, they got blown out by OSU, unlike Auburn(Clemson game was close) so that doesn't really count as a quality loss...They also have a very weak win column, with none of their wins over opponents with a winning record.
#20 USC began the season getting stomped by Bama...They have a loss to ranked Utah and a decent Stanford team. They also have a win over top 15 ranked Colorado. They are put in position to vault themselves infront of FSU next week if they were to defeat Washington. Having 3 losses and a respectable wins will always be tricky to rank.. but they look like a top 25 team when they win.
Anyone ranked below #20 has NO chance of making the CFP, and are probably ranked too low to end up in a "New Years 6" selection bowl. Western Michigan may be a lucky exception if they finish the year undefeated....CFP Committee might grace them into a selection bowl (much like Houston last year).
#21 Western Michigan is the "BCS buster of the year" in place of Houston. They are undefeated in the G5 with 2 wins over P5 opponents. (Illinois/Northwestern).
#22 Boise State is the "BCS buster runner-up" in place of Northern Illinois (lol). They have 1 in-conference loss, with 2 wins over P5 opponents (Washington State/Oregon State)
#23 Washington State is the lowest ranked 2 loss team...Because while being undefeated in P-5 contests...their 2 losses are against G5 opponents....CFP also does not like the Big 12 for some reason.
#24 LSU could be ranked higher than USC, but they no quality wins, even their division wins are against trash teams. They have losses against all top 10 teams though...Auburn, Bama, and Wisconsin are all good teams this year. Holding them back from being infront of USC is likely the game not played against UF...6-3 LSU would probably be right behind FSU.
#25 Arkansas is the only team on this list that is strictly here off of SEC bias. They have 3 losses to top 10 teams...all SEC opponents...They barely beat OOC TCU in over time...But got a boost from pounding on an over ranked UF team last week... They are here because every other 2 loss team is 6-2 with no quality wins, and blow out losses to trash teams. Baylor is the closest team to combat the #25 spot, and they loss 62-22 to a bad TCU squad that Arkansas ironically beat.
Side Story Scenario's for Miami:
Miami 9-0 would be ranked #4 behind Clemson. Nobody would complain, because they would obviously have the ACC championship game as the ultimate decision. Loser would be in the Selection bowl, with the winner being in the Playoffs. Clemson would enter the game ranked higher, as Louisville is a very good win.
Miami 8-1 would be ranked #7 or #8 depending on the loss. A close loss to either UNC/FSU would actually be better than a close loss to VT at this point. Because even though VT is the better/higher ranked team, we won't be in the ACC Championship (Assuming we both finish 7-1 in the division). A VT loss would have us at #8 , and hoping VT loses to Clem so we can be chosen for the Selection Bowl over the coastal champs (We would be 11-1, VT would be 10-3). If VT wins, we get bumped to the Russel Athletic bowl at 11-1. A loss to ND would probably be a "quality loss" because they are over rated...we would be #7 with a loss against ND, UNC or FSU...
Miami at 7-2, again assuming our losses came in October, would probably be ranked some where inbetween #1 8 FSU and [URL=https://www.canesinsight.com/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=1]#1 4[/URL] VT. Just like above, a loss coming from VT would be (long term) worse case scenario assuming the 2nd loss was to ND. If both losses were in conference, we would hope those 2 losses were against VT/UNC...because fvck FSU.
Miami at 6-3 would be competing with Arkansas/LSU/USC on who has the best wins against scrubs...and we would probably lose and still be unranked.
(I was going to post this in the CFP Rankings thread, but its pretty long)
Top 20 has:
- 5 ACC teams (FSU, UNC, VT, UL, and Clem).
- 5 Big 10 teams (Mich, OSU, Neb, Wisc, and Pedo State)
- 4 Pac-12 teams ( Wash, UTah, USC, Colorado )
- 3 SEC teams (Aub, TAMU, Bama)
- 3 Big 12 teams (Okla, Olka St, and WV)
The last 5 ranked teams include:
-The 2 G-5 Teams with the least amount of losses (Undefeated Western Michigan, 1 Loss Boise State) they are ranked #21 and #22
-Washington State, the lowest ranked P-5 team with 2 losses
-LSU/Arkansas who I will attempt to entertain below
Using Records to argue rankings:
-4 undefeated P5 teams left, and all of them occupy the top 4 slots.
-Western Michigan is undefeated in G5 and is #21 in the CFP (Western Michigan is [URL=https://www.canesinsight.com/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=1]#1 4[/URL] in the AP Polls).
-Only 4 teams remain that have 1 loss, OSU and Louisville could both be good play off teams...they are rightfuly 5/6
----West Virginia is 1 loss in the Pac-12, but has not played against Oklahoma, Texas, or Baylor yet. Has only beaten teams hovering around .500...They are still respectfully ranked [URL=https://www.canesinsight.com/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=1]#1 1[/URL] even though some lower ranked ACC teams would probably blow them out (VT, FSU, UNC, and even us, not-ranked Miami could probably beat them handily based on their play)
----Boise State is 1 loss in the G5, and is 1 spot under the undefeated G5 team (Western Michigan) at #22 .
Then you have a bunch of 2 loss teams and have to go by SoS and game performance to decide who is ranked higher.
There are 12 teams in the Top 25 with 2 losses.
#7 Wisconsin was given a huge bump at the beginning of the year...from beating a SEC team (LSU). They have loss against their (much better) in conference opponents however...both Mich/OSU are Playoff caliber teams that Wisconsin lost to. They are the only 2 loss team in the nation to lose both of their games to a top 5 opponent.
#9 Auburn is the closest 2 loss team to Wisconsin...They have loss both games to: Clemson/TAMU...this is where the rankings get tricky. Auburn has not done anything to drop in the rankings....but they haven't beaten anyone worth ranking them in the top 10 I will say...one of those cases where "early losses are better than late losses" because Auburn has simply won out since losing to Clem/TAMU who were both top 10. They are technically one of 2 teams in the nation to lose both of their games to a top 10 opponent....cept they didn't get blown out
#8 TAMU has a "better quality loss" than Auburn...They loss to the highest ranked team, and hold the highest regarded "head to head" win over another 7-2 team. They are the ONLY 2 loss team to beat another "2 loss team with losses to higher ranked teams". This all means that while Auburn/TAMU has the same record, TAMU will remain higher ranked than Auburn...and unfortunately...
#1 0 Pedo State is one of 2 teams to have a win over a Playoff caliber opponent. Although their 2 losses are unspectacular compared to the teams ranked near them, they can always claim beating OSU in a solid game...They beat them without needing 4-5 turnovers. The other team with a win over a playoff caliber opponent is Clemson (over Louisivlle).
[URL=https://www.canesinsight.com/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=1]#1 1[/URL] Oklahoma/#1 2 Colorado is similar to Auburn. They loss to a playoff team (Ohio State/Michigan) and loss to a P-5 opponent...or in Oklahoma's case...loss to Houston who was #6 at the time they played...both of the teams loss to opponents who are not top 15 quality, so they can not be put in the same category as Auburn. They have also not beaten any teams as good as, or better than Auburn to get the same bump that TAMU has gotten from beating Auburn. Ranking between Oklahoma/Colorado is trying to decide if losing to Houston or USC is worse..
#1 3 Oklahoma State...I'm honestly clueless how they are ranked this high...I think they should be under 3 loss FSU to be honest. They loss to both Oregon and Central Michigan...they do however have a quality win over previously undefeated West Virginia.
[URL=https://www.canesinsight.com/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=1]#1 4[/URL] Virginia Tech is tricky...they loss to a Tenn and Syracuse...both unranked and both not very excusable...Tenn loss is more understandable since it was early in the season and they fumbled almost every 6 plays it seemed like...much different team since that loss. Ranking them at 14 means that winning out (including a win against Clem) would still not make them a play off team..they will lose that ACC playoff slot to Louisville, assuming they both win out..However...I'm not entirely certain, but they could end up playing in the BCS game as a 2 loss team over a 1 loss Clemson...with Clemson dropping all the way to the Russel Athletic Bowl as the #1 ACC team picked. So the rankings at this point still matters even with them being outside of the Playoff race.
#1 5 Utah is similar to Colorado/Oklahoma...however...their loss to a "Playoff Caliber" team is Washington...who is obviously not very respected much by the CFP committee...Their wins are worse than the 2 loss teams ranked above...But their 2nd loss coming from Washington is not THAT disrespected to be ranked below the next few guys.
#1 6 West Virginia is the lowest ranked 1 loss team...can't put them any higher since they have a weak schedule (Similar to Nebraska)...Can't justify them being ranked lower than #20 with only 1 loss however.
#1 7 UNC as we all know is similar to VT. They loss to a SEC East team and a P-5 opponent...However, just like Auburn/TAMU...UNC will remain lower ranked than in-conference opponent VT as long as they share the same record..
For scenario purposes....Only situation that would bump UNC over VT is if they were to have a win over someone in a similar conference, but ranked higher. If UNC was 7-2 with a win over UGA, but a loss to a different team, they would still be ranked below VT...since Tenn > UGA right now...So UGA would have to be 8-1 for UNC to be ranked above VT....BUT..in that scenario...a win over UGA for UNC, would've carried both VT/UNC above Oklahoma, and they would probably both be ranked 2-3 spots higher.
#1 8 FSU is Over ranked. They have 2 losses to 2 playoff caliber teams (UL, Clem)..but they also have a loss to UNC and are ranked right below them. I think they are ranked too high, considering they have no quality wins and looked bad in EVERY SINGLE WIN. Only win that was outright was against Charleston Southern. They are the highest ranked 3 loss team because 2 of those losses are against elite teams, and the third is against another top 20 opponent...If they were in the coastal, they would still be 6-3 with likely losses to GT/VT instead of UL/Clem...However they would definitely be at the bottom of the Top 25 instead of the middle.
#1 9 Nebraska is the 2nd team in the nation with 2 losses against top 10 teams...However, they got blown out by OSU, unlike Auburn(Clemson game was close) so that doesn't really count as a quality loss...They also have a very weak win column, with none of their wins over opponents with a winning record.
#20 USC began the season getting stomped by Bama...They have a loss to ranked Utah and a decent Stanford team. They also have a win over top 15 ranked Colorado. They are put in position to vault themselves infront of FSU next week if they were to defeat Washington. Having 3 losses and a respectable wins will always be tricky to rank.. but they look like a top 25 team when they win.
Anyone ranked below #20 has NO chance of making the CFP, and are probably ranked too low to end up in a "New Years 6" selection bowl. Western Michigan may be a lucky exception if they finish the year undefeated....CFP Committee might grace them into a selection bowl (much like Houston last year).
#21 Western Michigan is the "BCS buster of the year" in place of Houston. They are undefeated in the G5 with 2 wins over P5 opponents. (Illinois/Northwestern).
#22 Boise State is the "BCS buster runner-up" in place of Northern Illinois (lol). They have 1 in-conference loss, with 2 wins over P5 opponents (Washington State/Oregon State)
#23 Washington State is the lowest ranked 2 loss team...Because while being undefeated in P-5 contests...their 2 losses are against G5 opponents....CFP also does not like the Big 12 for some reason.
#24 LSU could be ranked higher than USC, but they no quality wins, even their division wins are against trash teams. They have losses against all top 10 teams though...Auburn, Bama, and Wisconsin are all good teams this year. Holding them back from being infront of USC is likely the game not played against UF...6-3 LSU would probably be right behind FSU.
#25 Arkansas is the only team on this list that is strictly here off of SEC bias. They have 3 losses to top 10 teams...all SEC opponents...They barely beat OOC TCU in over time...But got a boost from pounding on an over ranked UF team last week... They are here because every other 2 loss team is 6-2 with no quality wins, and blow out losses to trash teams. Baylor is the closest team to combat the #25 spot, and they loss 62-22 to a bad TCU squad that Arkansas ironically beat.
Side Story Scenario's for Miami:
Miami 9-0 would be ranked #4 behind Clemson. Nobody would complain, because they would obviously have the ACC championship game as the ultimate decision. Loser would be in the Selection bowl, with the winner being in the Playoffs. Clemson would enter the game ranked higher, as Louisville is a very good win.
Miami 8-1 would be ranked #7 or #8 depending on the loss. A close loss to either UNC/FSU would actually be better than a close loss to VT at this point. Because even though VT is the better/higher ranked team, we won't be in the ACC Championship (Assuming we both finish 7-1 in the division). A VT loss would have us at #8 , and hoping VT loses to Clem so we can be chosen for the Selection Bowl over the coastal champs (We would be 11-1, VT would be 10-3). If VT wins, we get bumped to the Russel Athletic bowl at 11-1. A loss to ND would probably be a "quality loss" because they are over rated...we would be #7 with a loss against ND, UNC or FSU...
Miami at 7-2, again assuming our losses came in October, would probably be ranked some where inbetween #1 8 FSU and [URL=https://www.canesinsight.com/usertag.php?do=list&action=hash&hash=1]#1 4[/URL] VT. Just like above, a loss coming from VT would be (long term) worse case scenario assuming the 2nd loss was to ND. If both losses were in conference, we would hope those 2 losses were against VT/UNC...because fvck FSU.
Miami at 6-3 would be competing with Arkansas/LSU/USC on who has the best wins against scrubs...and we would probably lose and still be unranked.
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