ESPN FPI PROJECTIONS FOR MIAMI HURRICANES 2018 SEASON

[Novacane32000]

Love it. How accurate is this system normally?

By looking at results of the vegas spread and how that spread has played out historically, you probably have your best indicator of which team will win. Looking at our game with LSU, a 3 point favorite wins outright about 54% of the time, and that is based on a really nice sample size of over 2500 games over the course of 16 years

 

[Novacane32000]

We couldn't ask for a more favorable schedule. I know Clemson will be favored to beat us in the ACCCG but up until that game....no excuse for not running the table.

Did you look at the numbers in this thread? We have a 4% chance of going undefeated!!! Don't be shocked if we lose a game or two.

 

[ddann]

Did you look at the numbers in this thread? We have a 4% chance of going undefeated!!! Don't be shocked if we lose a game or two.

 

[kryptonite]

So... you like FPI? Aside from that, I have little understanding for what your point was. You seem to view FPI solely as a prism through which to view one game between two opponents. OK, I get it, it's not exactly rocket science to look at FPI % chances between team A and team B.

If you think it's that simple, fine, but don't be @'ing me with your Fcks, bro.

I get, and acknowledged in my quoted post, that there is a homer factor when looking at one's own team.

Still doesn't explain FPI putting ND at 21.7 and Miami at 16.5. Two teams with identical records over the last 13 games, with similar offseason attrition and returning players. The one projected to lose by 5 killed the other one just four/five games ago.

Let me know when your next doctorate course on probabilities and statistics opens for registration and I'll be sure to get in on it. Until then, I'll pass on the lecture. I get it. It seems to me you're trying to make some other kind of statement here about how ESPN isn't biased? I'm not sure what that has to do with my post.

As I said, I can't (and don't care to) dispute statistics that show that, over the course of a season, FPI is a good indicator of the likely result of a given game. But what are the inputs they use? What data suggest what is likely to happen?

How is a Notre Dame team that eeked out a win over LSU by 4 in the last game that either team played, 11.3 points better than that same team?

My entire point was that FPI still appears to me to contain flawed data and/or biases that result in outliers not accurately represented by the formula. These outliers may not significantly impact the formula's success in suggesting probabilities of outcomes of individual matchups, but they sure look odd sometimes when presented as a ranking. Until ESPN "opens the source code", I don't see why we should put any faith in it. But, I'll bet you FPI will be used in many many arguments about which teams should and should not make the playoffs.

So... you like FPI? Aside from that, I have little understanding for what your point was. You seem to view FPI solely as a prism through which to view one game between two opponents. OK, I get it, it's not exactly rocket science to look at FPI % chances between team A and team B.

If you think it's that simple, fine, but don't be @'ing me with your Fcks, bro.

I get, and acknowledged in my quoted post, that there is a homer factor when looking at one's own team.

Still doesn't explain FPI putting ND at 21.7 and Miami at 16.5. Two teams with identical records over the last 13 games, with similar offseason attrition and returning players. The one projected to lose by 5 killed the other one just four/five games ago.

Let me know when your next doctorate course on probabilities and statistics opens for registration and I'll be sure to get in on it. Until then, I'll pass on the lecture. I get it. It seems to me you're trying to make some other kind of statement here about how ESPN isn't biased? I'm not sure what that has to do with my post.

As I said, I can't (and don't care to) dispute statistics that show that, over the course of a season, FPI is a good indicator of the likely result of a given game. But what are the inputs they use? What data suggest what is likely to happen?

How is a Notre Dame team that eeked out a win over LSU by 4 in the last game that either team played, 11.3 points better than that same team?

My entire point was that FPI still appears to me to contain flawed data and/or biases that result in outliers not accurately represented by the formula. These outliers may not significantly impact the formula's success in suggesting probabilities of outcomes of individual matchups, but they sure look odd sometimes when presented as a ranking. Until ESPN "opens the source code", I don't see why we should put any faith in it. But, I'll bet you FPI will be used in many many arguments about which teams should and should not make the playoffs.

Below is a link to the wiki article on FPI which gives a basic explanation of what it takes into account. Things like the amount of days off a team has and game location play a part, so maybe they (and other factors) play a part in the conclusions. I don't think anyone is going to share the exact formula with you so there will always be room for doubt. I wasn't trying to say that ESPN isn't biased, rather that I believe that FPI is a mathematical formula that has no inherent bias. Whatever ESPNs biases and those of their individual employees, I think it's possible that they can come up with some math to pick game winners and not fudge the numbers.

I retract like 83% of my annoyance, it should have been directed at others who use "bias" as the explanation for every single thing they don't agree with. That said, you could have looked this up if you cared about the answers instead of just implying that something was off about FPI.

And finally, I don't claim to know if FPI is on the level, and I certainly don't love it (that's probably illegal...even in my state), but I respect that it gets the answer right a little more than whatever else is out there.

 

[kryptonite]

Just for fun.... assuming Miami wins every game week-by-week, this is how the FPI changes.

So, for example, before week 1, our expected win total is 9.4, and our odds of running the table are 4.5%.

If we beat LSU on Sunday, our expected win total jumps to 9.8, and our odds of going undefeated jump to 6.8%. And so on.


View attachment 63106

LOL, so beating Savannah St. doesn't improve our odds? Not even a little?

That actually makes a lot of sense.

 

[bear]

Very favorable schedule and all games are winnable and should be favored. The canes cannot **** the bed

 

[Jedi Master Cane]

Did you look at the numbers in this thread? We have a 4% chance of going undefeated!!! Don't be shocked if we lose a game or two.

Losing two games during the regular season, with THAT schedule and the team we have....would be a failure. We're in Richt's third season with probation in the rear view mirror, we should be getting better. Losing 2 games with that schedule would be the equivalent of what we did last year since we'd likely lose a third to Clemson....again.

Don't be shocked if that hypothetical result starts grumblings about Richt.

 

[g8rh8rMD]

Below is a link to the wiki article on FPI which gives a basic explanation of what it takes into account. Things like the amount of days off a team has and game location play a part, so maybe they (and other factors) play a part in the conclusions. I don't think anyone is going to share the exact formula with you so there will always be room for doubt. I wasn't trying to say that ESPN isn't biased, rather that I believe that FPI is a mathematical formula that has no inherent bias. Whatever ESPNs biases and those of their individual employees, I think it's possible that they can come up with some math to pick game winners and not fudge the numbers.

I retract like 83% of my annoyance, it should have been directed at others who use "bias" as the explanation for every single thing they don't agree with. That said, you could have looked this up if you cared about the answers instead of just implying that something was off about FPI.

And finally, I don't claim to know if FPI is on the level, and I certainly don't love it (that's probably illegal...even in my state), but I respect that it gets the answer right a little more than whatever else is out there.

Cool man. I think you forgot the link. Here it is, assuming this is what you were referring to: Football Power Index - Wikipedia

I’ll check it out later, if I’m feeling curious enough.

I think we’re basically on the same page, thanks bro. I’ll walk back 83% of my annoyance too and meet you in the middle.

BTW, illegal part, gold, Jerry, gold.

At the end of the day, eff it all, beat LSU.
Go mutherfckin Canes.

 

[kryptonite]

Cool man. I think you forgot the link. Here it is, assuming this is what you were referring to: Football Power Index - Wikipedia

I’ll check it out later, if I’m feeling curious enough.

I think we’re basically on the same page, thanks bro. I’ll walk back 83% of my annoyance too and meet you in the middle.

BTW, illegal part, gold, Jerry, gold.

At the end of the day, eff it all, beat LSU.
Go mutherfckin Canes.

Ha! In my righteous indignation I forgot the link.

Football Power Index - Wikipedia

 

[Dwinstitles]

But but but espn hates miami how is this possible

 

[Mikeiavelli]

Holy **** this is a statistics clinic. I took a grad level Stat class...got an A...I don't remember any of this crap lol.

But we better get some Gaytor fans in here to check this out. **** that would he funny. Keep hitting the Gaytor Logix button on their modded Ti-83plus until their sad little heads explode.

 

[Cajuncane]

Holy **** this is a statistics clinic. I took a grad level Stat class...got an A...I don't remember any of this crap lol.

But we better get some Gaytor fans in here to check this out. **** that would he funny. Keep hitting the Gaytor Logix button on their modded Ti-83plus until their sad little heads explode.

If there’s any flipping involved **** fans are definitely the guys you want here,They make Einstein look like a short bus rider when it comes to flipping math.

 

[JBCanes-NC]

Epsin can

Spoiler

eatadick

 

[Cane Dynasty]

Thanks for the breakdowns.

I love when you guys sperg out like this.