Betting podcast analysis

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Jul 13, 2014
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Pretty good and knowledgeable podcast I listen to sometimes from Todd Fuhrman, Brad Powers, and another dude named Payne breaks down the game nicely here. They actually don't even give a pick, I have to go back and listen to the end, maybe they talk about an actual play at the end of the podcast but they break it down pretty well.

Our game starts at 52:17

 
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OBM

You think we roll?

Let's put it this way. I think we compete. I don't think this is 2021 Bama, or 2020 Clemson, or the ACCCG vs Clemson where the games are just men against boys and they're essentially over before they even start. I will be very surprised if they just steamroll us like those teams did, simply because I feel that we're better on the lines than we've been (but not nearly good enough yet), we're better coached than we've been, and A&M doesn't have the horses on offense to completely flatten us.

I think we will struggle with their defense a lot. I have been kinda hinting for a while at what these guys are saying....I'm not quite ready to put TVD into the elite QB tier. I don't think we'll be able to move their front 7 and run the ball with a ton of success, and I don't think TVD is a matchup proof Heisman type player who elevates a lesser talented team. I think he's a very good player with a very big arm, but he looks a half a second slow in the new offense to me, and I don't see any explosive pass catchers around him. So I don't think we're just going to go up and down the field on a very good SEC defense.

However, I think we'll be pretty successful when we're on defense. I think Jimbo is stuck in 1994, I think King is average and his confidence is shot, and I think they're very inefficient overall. So I expect the low scoring game that Vegas does. I think that, when we're putting 4 fingers to the sky at around 11:30 eastern Saturday night, they'll be confident and excited 4's, and not the sad 4's we've seen seemingly every time we've played a ranked team out of conference in the past several years. We're gonna have a shot in the 4th quarter. If we're not winning, it'll be a 1 score game.

I think we can roll if we get a few bounces to go our way. And I think, win or lose, we compete for 60 minutes and it's a hard fought game. That's all I can really say for what I fully expect.
 
Some sobering stuff in there in regards to TVD.
It’s a bit of a hobby horse for Noles with TVD that he secretly sucks, every team he shined against was bad on D. I thought they were blowing smoke until last week.

The one thing that has been mentioned all week that is being overblown by people who didn‘t actually watch the game last week: sacks. Multiple of them were due to blown assignments and confusion, not getting beat. Now if you don’t fix that it doesn’t matter, but I’ve heard it mentioned by a a lot of data heads this week and isn’t indicative of the game itself.

That said, it looks like TAMU will be healing up just as we are getting injured. I feel worse about this game today than I did at the start of the season. I think we lose by 14 or more.
 
Some sobering stuff in there in regards to TVD.
This type of analysis can be sneaky subtle. On the surface it sounds objective: just spiting out numbers not opinion, right? However, it is very easy to cherry pick specific data points to back up your opinions. Also easy to omit numbers that contradict it.

IMHO, we played two cupcakes and the data is really not at all conclusive or definitive. I would say the same thing if he had a perfect QB rating after these two opponents. The beauty of this week is TVD has an opportunity to either vault himself into elite status or if he struggles, more along the lines of good not great college QB.
 
It’s a bit of a hobby horse for Noles with TVD that he secretly sucks, every team he shined against was bad on D. I thought they were blowing smoke until last week.

The one thing that has been mentioned all week that is being overblown by people who didn‘t actually watch the game last week: sacks. Multiple of them were due to blown assignments and confusion, not getting beat. Now if you don’t fix that it doesn’t matter, but I’ve heard it mentioned by a a lot of data heads this week and isn’t indicative of the game itself.

That said, it looks like TAMU will be healing up just as we are getting injured. I feel worse about this game today than I did at the start of the season. I think we lose by 14 or more.
That is actually not true. NC St was #19 last season, 3 yards behind Texas A&M in total defense and one place ahead of Michigan(#20). Pitt was #38, 3rd in sacks and tied for 8th in Interceptions. Not only that they had really good QBs and offenses while we didn't have a good defense and the game turnt into a shootout.
 
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That is actually not true. NC St was #19 last season, 3 yards behind Texas A&M in total defense and place ahead of Michigan. Pitt was #38, 3rd in sacks and tied for 8th in Interceptions. Not only that they had really good QBs and offenses while we didn't have a good defense and the game turnt into a shootout.
NC State was down 5 starters, Pitt was his most impressive for sure.
 
I don't think the difference will be more than a touchdown either way.

What gives us a legitimate chance is that A&M's offense has just been absolutely putrid. I mean, they scored ONE offensive touchdown aganist a team that gave up 63 points to UNC.

I remember our 2018 game aganist Virginia where we gave up only 16 points yet lost because our offense was beyond garbage.
 
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