FL Cane
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Wasn't working yesterday, so I had some time to rewatch the A&M App game and pull up whatever film on Max Johnson. Some observations on A&M and their new starting QB:
Prediction-wise, I think Miami does enough to get the job done. We have the better QB by a mile, and for the first time in a long time, we have the better staff too. That ends up making all the difference today.
- Switching out Haynes King for Max Johnson is an interesting move. Johnson is an experienced QB with multiple starts under his belt. Watching his LSU film, three things are apparent. First, Johnson is a one-read QB. He will lock onto a target pre-snap and stay with that target unless his check down is right in his face. His QB vision isn't great. Second, Johnson's decision-making is suspect. He throws a lot of toss-up balls into some very tight windows. Third, he's got decent pocket awareness and is mobile. King is a more mobile QB, but Johnson is athletic enough to pick up chunk yardage if the defense gives him an opportunity. Johnson is a below-average to average QB with decent arm talent and mobility. As we know, QBs with Johnson's background have lit us up before, so we need to get him under pressure early and consistently.
- Devon Achane is the best weapon that A&M has on O. He's quick and shifty, has great vision, and can make a defense pay if there's any open lane. Stopping him is going to be priority #1 for this defense. Achane's stats at this point are underwhelming (28 Attempts, 3.9 YPC, 2 TDs, and 108 yds on the ground), but don't let that deceive you. He's a **** of an athlete, and he will challenge our defense. Additionally, he's dangerous on special teams, as he had a kickoff return TD last week.
- Ainias Smith is A&M's best receiver. Make no mistake, they have a talented WR room, but this guy is their most proven WR. He didn't do much against App, but we can't let him get into a rhythm with Max Johnson.
- A&M's OL is underwhelming. You'd think in year 5 of Jimbo that this unit, being as big and talented as it is, would be one of the best in the country, but it's evident that they're still trying to figure things out. While they've only allowed 2 sacks, they haven't been able to get the running game going. It's vital for us to kill their run game tonight and force them to go to the air.
- A&M underutilizes its TE's. In years past, good TE's have killed us in the middle of the field. Despite how underutilized they are, would be surprised if they didn't dial up some plays attacking us at an obvious weak spot.
- Jimbo's scheme is stuck in the past. It's an offense that requires 1) an excellent QB and 2) phenomenal OL play to set up the run. A&M has neither of those intangibles at the moment. Given his past with Jimbo's offenses, there's no reason why Steele shouldn't be able to scheme for this match-up. App State didn't let A&M get into rhythm, and, as a result, they only had a total of 180yds offense. We can't let them find a groove or build confidence because they are at a psychological low point right now. Need to take advantage.
- A&M's defense is excellent. This is a unit that's not going to give you much, and when they do, you have to capitalize. App State beat them by doing three things: 1) dinking and dunking 90% of the time, 2) setting up third and manageable, 3) and owning TOP. As many have already said, that's not a viable strategy for Miami. A&M's defense was gassed after playing for 40 mins. While we're not gonna own TOP as App State did, we can't afford to let their defense stay fresh.
- A&M's Kicker has the potential to be another Baxa. He's 1-3 on the year and missed a crucial FG against App State. Anything beyond 40 yds, and he's very suspect.
Prediction-wise, I think Miami does enough to get the job done. We have the better QB by a mile, and for the first time in a long time, we have the better staff too. That ends up making all the difference today.