2020 By the Numbers: Miami vs. UVA

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Stefan Adams

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With Miami set to take on Virginia tomorrow night, CIS took a deep-dive and compared both programs. How do the teams match up in key areas of the game, which players were recruited by the other school, and how does the series history shake out? Let's find out.


Head-to-Head

Miami Rush Offense vs. Virginia Rush Defense


Miami’s running game has been the strength of the team thus far, coming in at 33rd nationally with 179.0 ypg. The Canes have shown they can consistently create big plays behind the legs of RB Cam’Ron Harris (5.8 ypc, 5 TD’s) and QB D’Eriq King (54.6 rushing yards per game). While their numbers were down the past two weeks playing against the best two front seven’s they’ll see all season in Clemson and Pitt, Virginia does not offer the same resistance; UVA is 32nd nationally in allowing 136.3 ypg, although DT Jowon Briggs (3 sacks) and LB Noah Taylor (5.5 TFL) have had strong starts. Like in games past, UVA’s defensive strategy will certainly be to stack the box to try and limit UM’s run game, but Miami has had great success running against teams without an elite front 7.

Advantage: Miami


Virginia Rush Offense vs. Miami Rush Defense

Virginia’s running game has been solid yet unspectacular in 2020, as they are 44th in the country with 158.8 ypg on the ground. Junior RB Wayne Taulapapa leads the team in rushing with 245 yards and 3 TD’s, while QB Brennan Armstrong has provided a major boost with 130 rushing yards in 2 and a half games played. However, with Armstrong still yet to be cleared to practice as of Wednesday coming off a concussion suffered 2 weeks back, it seems likely that Keytaon Thompson and Ira Armstead will again function as UVA’s tandem running QB’s (117 rushing yards combined last week vs. Wake Forest). Miami’s run defense had a breakthrough last week in holding Pitt to 22 rushing yards, and are now #33 in the nation with 144.0 rushing ypg allowed. However, Pitt did not have a running threat at QB like Thompson and Armstead, so it will be interesting to see if the Canes can continue that success vs. UVA.

Advantage: Even


Miami Pass Offense vs. Virginia Pass Defense

UM’s pass game has ebbed and flowed this season, ultimately evening out at 42nd nationally at 228.6 ypg through 5 games. While Miami has shown the ability to be both efficient and explosive at times behind the arm of King (59.2% completions, 7.1 ypa, 10-4 TD-INT ratio), it is certainly a concern to have leading receiver TE Brevin Jordan (18 receptions) listed as questionable yet again going into the game when Miami’s WR corps has been downright terrible at times and after the coaches completely reset the WR depth chart this week in practice. UM has relied heavily on the schemed up, King false step passes to generate a passing offense, and it’s fair to wonder if that can hold up all season.

If Miami’s pass game is ever going to get fully untracked, this will be the week, as UVA’s pass defense is 56th nationally in giving up 277 ypg, 64th nationally in ypa allowed (8.5), and just gave up six passes of 35+ yards last week vs. Wake Forest. Senior DB De’Vante Cross has been the best of a mediocre secondary, recording 13 tackles, 4 PBU, and an INT in 2020. UVA’s pass rush has been solid thus far, though, as the Cavs are #32 in the country in sacks with 2.5 per game. On the flip side, UM’s offensive line has struggled the past two weeks in allowing 9 sacks and 26 TFL. This is a battle of two weaknesses and it will be a key area to watch as the game develops.

Advantage: Even


Virginia Pass Offense vs. Miami Pass Defense

Despite playing a game and a half of their four contests with backup passing QB Lindell Stone, the Cavs’ passing game has remained overall effective (#26 at 264.3 ypg). It seems likely that Stone will get another start with Armstrong not practicing this week, although UVA has not ruled out using Thompson and/or Armstead in a rotation of sorts this week in the passing game. Still, the Cavs’ passing game numbers behind both Armstrong and Stone have a lot to do with pure volume rather than efficiency; UVA has relied mainly on short passes in 2020, as Virginia is 72nd of 77 FBS teams in ypa (5.3). That’s why it’s no surprise that UVA’s leading receiver is a 3rd down back in Billy Kemp, who is 8th nationally with a whopping 36 catches in just 4 games, but only averages 8.8 ypc. 6’7” true freshman WR Lavel Davis will be one to watch as well, as he has been one of the only players on UVA’s offense creating big plays (23.3 ypc, 3 TD’s).

UM has been decidedly average at defending the pass, as they are 45th in the country in passing defense with 252.2 ypg. However, they’ve been buoyed by a strong pass rush led by Quincy Roche (9 TFL, 2 sacks) that is 13th nationally in sacks with 14, and UVA’s OL has only been slightly above average at protecting the passer this year (#33 at 2 sacks per game). Last week against Pitt, UM also played a backup QB and forced the Panthers to become one-dimensional by taking away their run game, which led to some big plays through the air, but ultimately an inefficient passing day for Pitt. I expect to see a similar gameplan for UVA.

Advantage: Miami


Miami Special Teams vs. Virginia Special Teams

Virginia senior punter Nash Griffin has been an average punter in his career (42.2 ypp) and is currently 9th in the ACC in ypp (43.0) this season. However, UVA senior kicker Brian Delaney is considered one of the best kickers in the entire nation, as he was named to the Lou Groza watchlist and is a career 80.4% FG kicker (5-6 this year). On the flip side, Miami has two proven and experienced specialists in junior punter Louis Hedley, who made the Ray Guy Award watchlist (2nd in ACC at 47.6 ypp), and senior kicker Jose Borregales, who has been perfect so far in 2020 (8-8 FG’s, long of 57, 21-21 XP’s). The Canes are still trying to find an impact returner, as neither Mark Pope nor Xavier Restrepo have done much to this point. UVA WR Tavares Kelly is 15th nationally with 28.0 ypr on KR, while Kemp has been an underwhelming option at PR for the Cavs for two seasons now.

Advantage: Miami


Roster Notes

Virginia players recruited by Miami (5):
QB Keytaon Thompson, CB Heskin Smith, DE Ben Smiley, LB Brandon Williams, DB Donovan Johnson

Miami players recruited by Virginia (6): RB Robert Burns, DT Jordan Miller, OT Adam ElGammal, DT Jason Blissett, DT Jared Harrison-Hunte, DE Quentin Williams

Virginia players from South Florida (3): CB Dave Herard (Stranahan), LB D’Sean Perry (Gulliver Prep), DE Mandy Alonso (Gulliver Prep)


Series History

**
Miami leads the overall series with Virginia, 10-7.

**The Canes won the last game of the series vs. the Cavaliers; the longest-ever winning streak in this series was 3 games, something done by both Miami (1996-2005) and Virginia (2010-2012).

**The largest margin of victory in this rivalry is 48 points, something done by Virginia when they shutout the Hurricanes in the final game ever played at the Orange Bowl during the 2007 season.


Last Time They Played

**
Last season, #20 UVA came to Miami Gardens to play in the Friday night ACC showcase game vs. UM. It was a defensive battle without much offensive firepower, but Miami led a close contest the entire way before QB N’Kosi Perry sealed the game with a 3-yard TD run late in the 4th quarter. The Canes won, 17-9.

**In his first start of the season replacing Jarren Williams, Perry led the offense to just two TD’s and 265 total yards. In addition to the rushing TD, Perry also threw a 17-yard TD to DeeJay Dallas on a screen pass on the game's first drive and finished 16-27 for 182 passing yards.

**Miami’s defensive front got after Virginia QB Bryce Perkins, sacking him 5 times in the game.

**Virginia WR Hasise Dubois led all offensive skills players with 93 yards from scrimmage in the game, all of which came on his 7 receptions.

**With Bubba Baxa and Miami’s kicking game struggling badly heading into the matchup, the legend of Turner Davidson was born vs. UVA. In the first quarter, the walk-on kicker nailed his first XP attempt to loud roars from the crowd; later, Davidson would hit on another XP and his only FG attempt, a 19-yarder that came in the fourth quarter.

 
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Yup On the matchup headers haha. fixed

I think a good way to gauge how good a team is, is to imagine each team had the same elite QB. Then you can more fairly assess the quality of the other positions apples to apples. I guess what I am saying is that I hope in the future you add an additional category.

MIAMI WITH KENNY PICKETT VS VIRGINIA WITH KENNY PICKETT
 
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Good write up. It looks like we should be handling these guys on both sides of the ball. No score predictions?
 
With Miami set to take on Virginia tomorrow night, CIS took a deep-dive and compared both programs. How do the teams match up in key areas of the game, which players were recruited by the other school, and how does the series history shake out? Let's find out.


Head-to-Head

Miami Rush Offense vs. Virginia Rush Defense


Miami’s running game has been the strength of the team thus far, coming in at 33rd nationally with 179.0 ypg. The Canes have shown they can consistently create big plays behind the legs of RB Cam’Ron Harris (5.8 ypc, 5 TD’s) and QB D’Eriq King (54.6 rushing yards per game). While their numbers were down the past two weeks playing against the best two front seven’s they’ll see all season in Clemson and Pitt, Virginia does not offer the same resistance; UVA is 33rd nationally in allowing 136.3 ypg, although DT Jowon Briggs (3 sacks) and LB Noah Taylor (5.5 TFL) have had strong starts. Like in games past, UVA’s defensive strategy will certainly be to stack the box to try and limit UM’s run game, but Miami has had great success running against teams without an elite front 7.

Advantage: Miami


Virginia Rush Offense vs. Miami Rush Defense

Virginia’s running game has been solid yet unspectacular in 2020, as they are 44th in the country with 158.8 ypg on the ground. Junior RB Wayne Taulapapa leads the team in rushing with 245 yards and 3 TD’s, while QB Brennan Armstrong has provided a major boost with 130 rushing yards in 2 and a half games played. However, with Armstrong still yet to be cleared to practice as of Wednesday coming off a concussion suffered 2 weeks back, it seems likely that Keytaon Thompson and Ira Armstead will again function as UVA’s tandem running QB’s (117 rushing yards combined last week vs. Wake Forest). Miami’s run defense had a breakthrough last week in holding Pitt to 22 rushing yards, and are now #33 in the nation with 144.0 rushing ypg allowed. However, Pitt did not have a running threat at QB like Thompson and Armstead, so it will be interesting to see if the Canes can continue that success vs. UVA.

Advantage: Even


Miami Pass Offense vs. Virginia Pass Defense

UM’s pass game has ebbed and flowed this season, ultimately evening out at 42nd nationally at 228.6 ypg through 5 games. While Miami has shown the ability to be both efficient and explosive at times behind the arm of King (59.2% completions, 7.1 ypa, 10-4 TD-INT ratio), it is certainly a concern to have leading receiver TE Brevin Jordan (18 receptions) listed as questionable yet again going into the game when Miami’s WR corps has been downright terrible at times and after the coaches completely reset the WR depth chart this week in practice. UM has relied heavily on the schemed up, King false step passes to generate a passing offense, and it’s fair to wonder if that can hold up all season.

If Miami’s pass game is ever going to get fully untracked, this will be the week, as UVA’s pass defense is 56th nationally in giving up 277 ypg, 64th nationally in ypa allowed (8.5), and just gave up six passes of 35+ yards last week vs. Wake Forest. Senior DB De’Vante Cross has been the best of a mediocre secondary, recording 13 tackles, 4 PBU, and an INT in 2020. UVA’s pass rush has been solid thus far, though, as the Cavs are #32 in the country in sacks with 2.5 per game. On the flip side, UM’s offensive line has struggled the past two weeks in allowing 9 sacks and 26 TFL. This is a battle of two weaknesses and it will be a key area to watch as the game develops.

Advantage: Even


Virginia Pass Offense vs. Miami Pass Defense

Despite playing a game and a half of their four contests with backup passing QB Lindell Stone, the Cavs’ passing game has remained overall effective (#26 at 264.3 ypg). It seems likely that Stone will get another start with Armstrong not practicing this week, although UVA has not ruled out using Thompson and/or Armstead in a rotation of sorts this week in the passing game. Still, the Cavs’ passing game numbers behind both Armstrong and Stone have a lot to do with pure volume rather than efficiency; UVA has relied mainly on short passes in 2020, as Virginia is 72nd of 77 FBS teams in ypa (5.3). That’s why it’s no surprise that UVA’s leading receiver is a 3rd down back in Billy Kemp, who is 8th nationally with a whopping 36 catches in just 4 games, but only averages 8.8 ypc. 6’7” true freshman WR Lavel Davis will be one to watch as well, as he has been one of the only players on UVA’s offense creating big plays (23.3 ypc, 3 TD’s).

UM has been decidedly average at defending the pass, as they are 45th in the country in passing defense with 252.2 ypg. However, they’ve been buoyed by a strong pass rush led by Quincy Roche (9 TFL, 2 sacks) that is 13th nationally in sacks with 14, and UVA’s OL has only been slightly above average at protecting the passer this year (#33 at 2 sacks per game). Last week against Pitt, UM also played a backup QB and forced the Panthers to become one-dimensional by taking away their run game, which led to some big plays through the air, but ultimately an inefficient passing day for Pitt. I expect to see a similar gameplan for UVA.

Advantage: Miami


Miami Special Teams vs. Virginia Special Teams

Virginia senior punter Nash Griffin has been an average punter in his career (42.2 ypp) and is currently 9th in the ACC in ypp (43.0) this season. However, UVA senior kicker Brian Delaney is considered one of the best kickers in the entire nation, as he was named to the Lou Groza watchlist and is a career 80.4% FG kicker (5-6 this year). On the flip side, Miami has two proven and experienced specialists in junior punter Louis Hedley, who made the Ray Guy Award watchlist (2nd in ACC at 47.6 ypp), and senior kicker Jose Borregales, who has been perfect so far in 2020 (8-8 FG’s, long of 57, 21-21 XP’s). The Canes are still trying to find an impact returner, as neither Mark Pope nor Xavier Restrepo have done much to this point. UVA WR Tavares Kelly is 15th nationally with 28.0 ypr on KR, while Kemp has been an underwhelming option at PR for the Cavs for two seasons now.

Advantage: Miami


Roster Notes

Virginia players recruited by Miami (5):
QB Keytaon Thompson, CB Heskin Smith, DE Ben Smiley, LB Brandon Williams, DB Donovan Johnson

Miami players recruited by Virginia (6): RB Robert Burns, DT Jordan Miller, OT Adam ElGammal, DT Jason Blissett, DT Jared Harrison-Hunte, DE Quentin Williams

Virginia players from South Florida (3): CB Dave Herard (Stranahan), LB D’Sean Perry (Gulliver Prep), DE Mandy Alonso (Gulliver Prep)


Series History

**
Miami leads the overall series with Virginia, 10-7.

**The Canes won the last game of the series vs. the Cavaliers; the longest-ever winning streak in this series was 3 games, something done by both Miami (1996-2005) and Virginia (2010-2012).

**The largest margin of victory in this rivalry is 48 points, something done by Virginia when they shutout the Hurricanes in the final game ever played at the Orange Bowl during the 2007 season.


Last Time They Played

**
Last season, #20 UVA came to Miami Gardens to play in the Friday night ACC showcase game vs. UM. It was a defensive battle without much offensive firepower, but Miami led a close contest the entire way before QB N’Kosi Perry sealed the game with a 3-yard TD run late in the 4th quarter. The Canes won, 17-9.

**In his first start of the season replacing Jarren Williams, Perry led the offense to just two TD’s and 265 total yards. In addition to the rushing TD, Perry also threw a 17-yard TD to DeeJay Dallas on a screen pass on the game's first drive and finished 16-27 for 182 passing yards.

**Miami’s defensive front got after Virginia QB Bryce Perkins, sacking him 5 times in the game.

**Virginia WR Hasise Dubois led all offensive skills players with 93 yards from scrimmage in the game, all of which came on his 7 receptions.

**With Bubba Baxa and Miami’s kicking game struggling badly heading into the matchup, the legend of Turner Davidson was born vs. UVA. In the first quarter, the walk-on kicker nailed his first XP attempt to loud roars from the crowd; later, Davidson would hit on another XP and his only FG attempt, a 19-yarder that came in the fourth quarter.


Another UVA player from South Florida is Tavares Kelly from STA:
https://virginia.sportswar.com/arti...es-tavares-kelly-jr-excited-homecoming-miami/
 
Time to update the stats you look at. Miami is not "decidedly average" at pass defense.

-12th in ypa
-24th in pass efficiency defense
-I couldn't find rankings for completion % allowed, but at 59%, Miami has to rank fairly well. Comparing to the other top defenses in the conference, Clemson is at 68%, ND at 61%, and Pitt at 58%.

Our passing yards allowed per game are only 45th because we're 9th in the country in attempts "allowed". We are 66 out of 77 in time of possession, so our opponents have been on the field a lot. That's the flipside of having a high tempo, quick strike offense. And with the exception of the Clemson game, we have had a 2-possession lead for the majority of each of our games, so our opponents have had to throw the ball a lot.

Saying that our pass defense has been average is flat out incorrect.
 
Watch UVA vs Wake Forest & NC St, they gave up 179yds vs Wake & 218yds rushing vs NC St.
Their Run Defense is horrendous.

This is a game where King, Cam, Knighton & Chaney (if healthy) should eat big time. Their Secondary is weak as well, they have solid Safety play but their Corners are subpar. Keyshawn Smith, Pope & the TE's can get big chunk yard plays on them.

On Defense it's pretty simple attack the QB & force turnovers, they're most likely gonna start Linden Stone who's a 56% passer & has 3TD's & 3INT's on the season. The key to the game will be for us to put heavy pressure upfront & collapse the pocket.

Shut down their RB's Wayne Taulapapa & Billy Kemp (their leading receiver even though he's a RB), put Al Jr on WR Terrell Jana & have Bolden & Frierson stick on their TE Tony Poljan all game & we'll be good.

They are going to screen us to death with the RB's & work the TE as much as possible, Poljan will be the guy they try to get loose, he's a big bodied 6'7 TE & they are gonna target quite a bit.

I also expect them to throw to the 6'7' TF WR Lavel Davis, this needs to be DJ Ivey's assignment, this kid will get some Deep balls down the field if they have enough time to throw, Ivey needs to be physical with him & make sure he don't get his hands on any passes thrown his way, rough this big lanky mf'er up & reroute him to the sideline.

They don't have any speed threats to be weary of, they mostly will try to pound the rock with stretch zones creating cutback lanes (LVille & Pitt) & will throw as many Screens as they possibly can, they're gonna Dink & Dunk us until we fall asleep & then try a deep shot. We need to win 1st down & put them at 3rd & longs all game, they're only 29% at 3rd down conversion on the season, but are 61% on 4th downs.

As long as we disrupt their QB's rhythm & get them to play behind schedule we cause multiple turnovers & score TD's off'em. This will be a game where we simply just overwhelm them with pressure from the front 4. Phillips, Nesta, JHH, Roche, Harvey & the gang will feast.

I got King, Cam & Knighton all having a big day on the ground & the WR's being good for 2 additional explosive play TD's to give us a comfortable lead early. I'm even gonna go out on a limb & predict a Defensive TD because we're due for one this season.

Canes wins 45-17.
 
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Watch UVA vs Wake Forest & NC St, they gave up 179yds vs Wake & 218yds rushing vs NC St.
Their Run Defense is horrendous.

This is a game where King, Cam, Knighton & Chaney (if healthy) should eat big time. Their Secondary is weak as well, they have solid Safety play but their Corners are subpar. Keyshawn Smith, Pope & the TE's can get big chunk yard plays on them.

On Defense it's pretty simple attack the QB & force turnovers, they're most likely gonna start Linden Stone who's a 56% passer & has 3TD's & 3INT's on the season. The key to the game will be for us to put heavy pressure upfront & collapse the pocket.

Shut down their RB's Wayne Taulapapa & Billy Kemp (their leading receiver even though he's a RB), put Al Jr on WR Terrell Jana & have Bolden & Frierson stick on their TE Tony Poljan all game & we'll be good.

They are going to screen us to death with the RB's & work the TE as much as possible, Poljan will be the guy they try to get loose, he's a big bodied 6'7 TE & they are gonna target quite a bit.

I also expect them to throw to the 6'7' TF WR Lavel Davis, this needs to be DJ Ivey's assignment, this kid will get some Deep balls down the field if they have enough time to throw, Ivey needs to be physical with him & make sure he don't get his hands on any passes thrown his way, rough this big lanky mf'er up & reroute him to the sideline.

They don't have any speed threats to be weary of, they mostly will try to pound the rock with stretch zones creating cutback lanes (LVille & Pitt) & will throw as many Screens as they possibly can, they're gonna Dink & Dunk us until we fall asleep & then try a deep shot. We need to win 1st down & put them at 3rd & longs all game, they're only 29% at 3rd down conversion on the season, but are 61% on 4th downs.

As long as we disrupt their QB's rhythm & get them to play behind schedule we cause multiple turnovers & score TD's off'em. This will be a game where we simply just overwhelm them with pressure from the front 4. Phillips, Nesta, JHH, Roche, Harvey & the gang will feast.

I got King, Cam & Knighton all having a big day on the ground & the WR's being good for 2 additional explosive play TD's to give us a comfortable lead early. I'm even gonna go out on a limb & predict a Defensive TD because we're due for one this season.

Canes wins 45-17.

You know I've been on this same bandwagon since Sunday morning. I will be shocked and disappointed if we don't absolutely roll on offense. I think 45 is a touch high, but absolutely in the realm of possibility, and truthfully if we score any less than about 34 I will be almost as disappointed as I was walking out of that stadium in bum**** Clemson a couple weeks ago.

This is a "get right" game, for sure. If we don't smoke these dudes on offense, it's going to be a long year. We're 2 weeks past that Clemson debacle, we haven't played well on offense in 2 weeks (albeit against very good defenses), we've been home for 2 weeks, it's at night again, UVA can't stop a soul. It's go time. I want 500 yards and 40+ points.
 
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