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12-Team College Football Playoff: What's it Going to Look Like and What Does that Mean for UM?

No_Fly_Zone

No_Fly_Zone

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The expanded college football playoff schedule was released this Wednesday (shout out to @Tony4Canes, who posted this schedule in a related thread):

1717770749178.png


The rules say the 12 will be made up of the 5 highest ranked conference champions, followed by the next 7 highest ranked teams (per the Committee's ranking). But, there is no limit to how many teams from any conference can qualify. There's also no minimum ranking requirement for the 5 highest-ranked conference champions (so if some G5 school has a team ranked outside the top 12, they'd still bump the No. 12 ranked team). ESPN has a solid breakdown of it here.

The format doesn't guarantee any number of spots for any particular conference, but we can all expect the P4 conference champions will be represented. Also, the media revenue distribution is far from an even split, so the money suggests the SEC and B1G will be "well represented" (i.e., more spots). This got me wondering what the conference representation this year's playoff would look like (and what that means for the Canes). Without a game being played, I predict it'll look like this:

SEC: 4 teams
B1G: 3
ACC: 2
BIG12: 1
G5: 1
+ NLame = 12.

Thoughts? If it shakes out that way, very good chance we get in the playoffs with an ACCCG appearance. Win the ACC and we're a lock. Does that change anyone's expectations for the season (or maybe confirm them)? Curious how others see this shaking out at this (admittedly early) point.
 
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No_Fly_Zone said:
The expanded college football playoff schedule was released this Wednesday (shout out to @Tony4Canes, who posted this schedule in a related thread):

View attachment 291154

The rules say the 12 will be made up of the 5 highest ranked conference champions, followed by the next 7 highest ranked teams (per the Committee's ranking). But, there is no limit to how many teams from any conference can qualify. There's also no minimum ranking requirement for the 5 highest-ranked conference champions (so if some G5 school has a team ranked outside the top 12, they'd still bump the No. 12 ranked team). ESPN has a solid breakdown of it here.

The format doesn't guarantee any number of spots for any particular conference, but we can all expect the P4 conference champions will be represented. Also, the media revenue distribution is far from an even split, so the money suggests the SEC and B1G will be "well represented" (i.e., more spots). This got me wondering what the conference representation this year's playoff would look like (and what that means for the Canes). Without a game being played, I predict it'll look like this:

SEC: 4 teams
B1G: 3
ACC: 2
BIG12: 1
G5: 1
+ NLame = 12.

Thoughts? If it shakes out that way, very good chance we get in the playoffs with an ACCCG appearance. Win the ACC and we're a lock. Does that change anyone's expectations for the season (or maybe confirm them)? Curious how others see this shaking out at this (admittedly early) point.
Click to expand...

There will still be controversy regardless. Your thought is likely how most see it happening and yet unlikely to happen if that makes sense.

I also foresee an issue in the following scenario: 3 ACC teams ranked top 20, Team A vs Team B for the ACC championship. Team A barely Team B; Team C lost one conference game very early and it eliminated them from the championship game but went and dominated rest of the season. Who gets in? You reward a team for NOT playing the championship game? If it was a close game would that change the perception? Do you punish a team who lost early on or maybe was missing a key starter and that is why they lost? Way too many hypotheticals to play out. Simplest way is just go out and win the ACC. Cannot trust the committee to do the right thing. We have the team to do it.
 
Cookie917 said:
There will still be controversy regardless. Your thought is likely how most see it happening and yet unlikely to happen if that makes sense.

I also foresee an issue in the following scenario: 3 ACC teams ranked top 20, Team A vs Team B for the ACC championship. Team A barely Team B; Team C lost one conference game very early and it eliminated them from the championship game but went and dominated rest of the season. Who gets in? You reward a team for NOT playing the championship game? If it was a close game would that change the perception? Do you punish a team who lost early on or maybe was missing a key starter and that is why they lost? Way too many hypotheticals to play out. Simplest way is just go out and win the ACC. Cannot trust the committee to do the right thing. We have the team to do it.
Click to expand...

I understand what you mean... the consensus "most likely" scenario is still unlikely to be what actually happens. And I fully expect controversy and disagreement with whatever the Committee does (especially with their subjective selection criteria and in those last couple of spots). Win the **** conference and take it out of their hands. Seems fair enough (it's a much better deal Forfeit State got last season, lol).
 
The committee thought they caught crap before wait till they try and put an 8 win SEC team in as a 5th team or something similar with the B1G and leave an ACC or Big 12 team with a better record out…
 
One thing for sure is that the months of October and November are going to be a bonanza. When they release the first playoff poll there will literally be a couple dozen teams sitting with one or two losses and all will be in the hunt.
 
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It's gonna be exciting. We finally have a positive change here, now the other moving parts may derail the progress, but...
 
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