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After watching some of the UNC vs South Carolina film, I feel even better about this game. Here are ten predictions for what will happen on Saturday night.
What do you all think, agree or disagree? While I am optimistic about this matchup, I can see why some people are more cautious. Nevertheless, there isn't a position group (maybe OL and a draw at QB?) where UNC beats us out.
- Miami wins this game by at least 14 points. I think this Saturday's game will go much like our 31-6 victory at Duke in 2017. That was a game where our defense was dominant and our offense was good enough. In evaluating the offense South Carolina ran against UNC (led by an OC who was a long-time disciple of Mark Richt at UGA) the Gamecocks couldn't get anything going. Overall, South Carolina had 270 yards of offense, with 128 yds on the ground and 142 yds in the air. South Carolina doesn't have comparable skill players to Miami, it's evident watching the film, and this will be a challenge for UNC's defense. Deejay Dallas alone is better than anything UNC faced last week. Overall, I expect the canes to put up at least 430 yards of offense, though I wouldn't be surprised if the number was higher. UNC has a good DL that will give our OL problems, but we have the skill players to make them pay for selling out. The fact that one of their starting LB's was in their QB rotation last year says a lot about their roster depth. Their secondary is also not impressive, to say the least.
- Jarren Williams throws for 230 yds, 2 TD's, and commits 1 turnover. Jarren Williams had a solid performance against a good Florida Gators defense and looks to get better this week. He was limited by 20+ QB pressures and 10 sacks, a few sacks which were his own fault. Florida's defense is miles better than what UNC will field on Saturday night, and the drop in the competition will help Williams in his development. Dan Enos will likely open up the playbook more, which increases the likelihood that Jarren throws a pic. Nevertheless, I think his turnover comes on a fumble. There were a few times against Florida where Jarren's ball security was an issue. I think Jarren will have a high completion %, and that you will see a lot more of the intermediate passing game. UNC has some very talented guys on their defense, but they've got some big holes in the secondary.
- Miami will rush for at least 200 yds and 2 TDs. UNC allowed 128 yds of rushing against South Carolina, and that number will only get higher this Saturday. Deejay Dallas put on a clinic against a good and talented Florida defense and looks to improve on his performance. Dallas will be the mainstay at running back, but look for Cam'Ron Harris to have a few big runs as well. UNC's DL had good push against a solid South Carolina defense last Saturday, and they can be a problem. Nevertheless, if Dallas and Harris can gash a good Florida defense (I'm including Cam's 45 yard run called back on a terrible hold) they can be a nightmare for a UNC defense which is a clear drop in competition.
- Jeff Thomas has a big game. Arguably, Jeff Thomas was the most criticized player after Miami's loss to Florida. Not only did Thomas drop a go-ahead touchdown pass that he had his hands on (tough catch nonetheless), but he made a crucial error in muffing a punt inside Miami's 10 yd line. Thomas will be a go-to target for JW15 and will punch in a TD.
- Will Mallory makes an impact. At the moment, Mallory is in the running for Premier Green Tree All-American. He was a non-factor against Florida, and dropped a number of passes. Look for him to make a few catches this week and get some consistency going.
- Tate Martell makes a big play. Whether it's a TD or just a crucial first down, Tate Martell will make a big play this week. Dan Enos and Manny Diaz have hinted at expanded Tate packages, and I expect to see use his arm or his feet to make a play happen.
- Miami's OL gives up 3 sacks. The OL we will see on Saturday will be schematically and physically better, but they still have a ways to go. I expect the OL to be responsible for 3sacks, while JW15 will be at fault for 1. Had Jarren gotten the ball out of his hands quicker Week 0, Miami would've given up 5 sacks compared to 10. I do think there will be a good amount of QB hurries, but again, UNC's DL is a major downgrade from UF's. They get a good push upfront and can cause problems, which is why I expect our offense to be run-heavy. JW15 also won't hold onto the ball for a millennium which will help.
- Bubba Baxa goes 2/2. Baxa missed a huge chip shot in Week 0 which severely limited Miami's options in the final drive of that game. I expect a few of Miami's early drives to stall out within the 35-25 yard lines on UNC's side of the field. While Baxa could have more opportunities to kick, I think Manny Diaz will try to pin UNC's offense deep in its territory as often as he can.
- The Chain comes out 3 times. Last week, UNC QB Sam Howell fumbled twice but was able to recover once. He also should've thrown at least 1 interception which went straight through the hands of an SC DB. UNC rushed for 238 yards against South Carolina, and the luxury of a great running game to alleviate pressure on a true freshman QB won't be available against Miami. With a defense that held a good UF RB stable to only 50 yds rushing, Miami is in a good position to make UNC one dimensional. Forced to air it out more, Howell will throw two interceptions at the least.
- Miami's front-seven forces 4 sacks and a bunch of TFL's. Against Florida, Miami had to dedicate front-7 personnel to spy on Felipe Franks all game. Sam Howell doesn't have the comparable running ability, which allows Miami's front-seven to do what they're best at. Expect Jonathan Garvin and crew to have a big game. Getting UNC behind schedule is vital to putting on a great performance on Saturday.
What do you all think, agree or disagree? While I am optimistic about this matchup, I can see why some people are more cautious. Nevertheless, there isn't a position group (maybe OL and a draw at QB?) where UNC beats us out.
