forums

#1 offense in the country requires a great QB and Oline

Advertisement
Mad Max Thats GIF
 
I have been saying this all offseason, it’s the system. As long as there is an accurate QB, and great offensive line, this will be a top 10 offense.

Hstokes1447 said:
I fully expect Miami to be one of the best offenses in college football this upcoming season, likely finishing in the top 10-15 nationally. Here’s why, backed by data and trends rather than hype.

Offensive Talent;

Total offensive players: 40
Blue chips: 23
Blue chip ratio: 57%

Shannon Dawson’s Proven Offensive Track Record
Dawson has a long history as a high-level offensive coordinator producing efficient, explosive offenses. Here’s a snapshot of his recent teams (excluding 2020 due to shortened season):

YearTeamPassing Yds/GameNational Passing RankRushing Yds/GameYards/PlayPoints/GameStarting QB
2018Southern Miss317.0#9179.06.535.0Jack Abraham
2021Houston271.4#23143.46.035.9Clayton Tune
2022Houston314.0#8141.86.636.1Clayton Tune
2023Miami258.0#43173.26.431.5Tyler Van Dyke
2024Miami348.2#3188.97.643.9Cam Ward

Dawson’s average per game (2018–2024):
  • Passing Yards: 295.7
  • Rushing Yards: 161.6
  • Points: 35.4
For context, the NCAA FBS average (2018–2024) is:
  • Passing Yards: 210
  • Rushing Yards: 140
  • Points: 26
That’s a difference of:
  • +85.7 passing yards/game
  • +21.6 rushing yards/game
  • +9.4 points/game
Dawson’s offenses consistently outperform the national average by wide margins.

Quarterback Play: The Key Ingredient:
A major component of Shannon Dawson’s offensive approach is how much trust and responsibility he places on the quarterback. Dawson designs his offense to allow the QB to read the defense and make decisions, whether it’s deciding to throw a quick checkdown, take a shot deep, or hand off to a running back depending on what the defense shows post snap. This level of QB trust requires the quarterback to have good football IQ and feel for the game, making the smart and experienced Carson Beck the perfect QB for this system.

Under Dawson, quarterbacks historically have done well. His QBs have repeatedly produced 3,000+ passing yard season going back to Geno Smith at West Virginia (3,205 passing yards, 42 passing touchdowns, with a 71.2% completion rate) with two QB throwing for over 4,000.

QB’s under Dawson since 2018
Jack Abraham (Southern Miss, 2018)
  • 2,347 passing yards and 21 passing touchdowns
    • Led the nation in completion percentage (73.1%)
Clayton Tune (Houston, 2021–2022)
  • 2021: 3,546 passing yards and 29 passing touchdowns
    • Birmingham Bowl Offensive MVP
    • Multiple AAC Player of the Week honors
    • First Team All AAC
    • Set AAC single season record for touchdown passes
Tyler Van Dyke (Miami, 2023)
  • 2,703 passing yards and 6 passing touchdowns
Cam Ward (Miami, 2024)
  • 4,313 passing yards and 38 passing touchdowns
    • ACC Player & Offensive Player of the Year
    • Davey O’Brien Award winner
    • Manning Award winner
    • Consensus First-Team All American
    • Heisman Trophy finalist
So in 6 seasons as an OC his teams have only dropped out of the top 25 in passing once, the year TVD 💩 the bed. 🤦🏾‍♂️

Beck transferred in with experience, poise, and elite-level accuracy. From a clean pocket, he completed 70.0% of his passes, which ranks 5th since 2014.

Here’s how that stacks up with the best:
  • Joe Burrow (82.3%) – 2019 Nat’l Champion
  • Shedeur Sanders (77.0%) – 9-3 season
  • Tua Tagovailoa (73.9%) – 2018 Nat’l Champion
  • Justin Fields (72.5%) – Playoffs
  • Carson Beck (70.0%) – Playoffs
  • Jalen Hurts (69.5%) – Playoffs
  • Michael Penix Jr. (68.8%) – Nat’l title game
  • Drake Maye (68.0%) – 9-3 season
  • Brock Purdy (67.7%) – 9-3 season

6 of these 10 QBs made the playoffs, and 3 won national titles. According to this data having Beck throwing from a clean pocket gives Miami. 60% chance at making the playoffs and a 30% chance of getting ring #6. That gives you a real sense of where Beck stands and what he could bring to this offense.


Offensive Line:
In 2025 Miami will have one of the best offensive lines in the nation, aiding in the ability to give Carson the clean pocket he needs. Miami has three future NFL draft picks up front in Markel Bell, Anez Cooper, and Francis Mauigoa. Mauigoa could go top 10 in 2026. This puts Miami in a special group. Since 2019, 7 of the last 12 teams that had three or more offensive linemen drafted ended up in the College Football Playoff. Three won it all:
  • LSU (2019)
  • Alabama (2020)
  • Michigan (2023)
Having that level of talent on the offensive line gives Miami a 58% shot at making the playoff and 25% chance at 6 rangz. That’s not opinion, that’s what the data shows.


Running Game:
Miami features a deep running back rotation fully capable of hitting elite level rushing numbers this season. In 2024 Miami was 292 yards shy of accomplishing this. Given the expectation that Miami will run the ball more this season, I fully expect expect Miami to be 2,750 yards or above this season .

Average College Football Playoff Teams Rushing Stats (2022–2024)
Rushing Yards/Game: 172.5
Total Rushing Yards: 2,748
Rushing Touchdowns: 24.3

Miami Hurricanes 2024 Rushing Stats
Rushing Yards/Game: 188.9
Total Rushing Yards: 2,456
Rushing Touchdowns: 30

Difference: University of Miami 2024 vs. Average College Football Playoff Teams (2022–2024)
  • Rushing Yards per Game: +16.4 yards/game
  • Total Rushing Yards: –292 yards
  • Rushing Touchdowns: +5.7 touchdowns

Miami will feature a three-headed monster in the backfield:
  • CharMar Brown: 1,181 yards, 15 TDs
  • Mark Fletcher: 607 yards, 9 TDs
  • Jordan Lyle: 400 yards, 4 TDs
That’s over 2,186 rushing yards and 28 TDs combined. Find a way to get 570 more yards and Miami is cooking.


Pass Catchers:
In Shawn Dawson system receivers repeatedly put up 1,000 yard seasons. It is safe to say that trend will continue. Here is a breakdown of receiver production at his last 3 stops.

Leading Receivers under Shannon Dawson
Southern Miss (2018)
  • Quez Watkins
    • 1,198 receiving yards, 71 receptions, 16.9 yards per catch, 10 touchdowns
      • Conference USA All-Conference selection
    • 475 receiving yards, 38 receptions, 12.5 yards per catch, 4 touchdowns
Houston (2021)
  • Tank Dell
    • 1,329 receiving yards, 90 receptions, 14.8 yards per catch, 12 touchdowns
      • First-Team All-American Athletic Conference
      • Dave Campbell All-State First Team
    • 753 receiving yards, 52 receptions, 14.5 yards per catch, 7 touchdowns
Houston (2022)
  • Tank Dell
    • 1,398 receiving yards, 109 receptions, 12.8 yards per catch, 17 touchdowns
      • Second Team All-America
      • First Team All-American Athletic Conference
      • Dave Campbell's Texas Football First Team All-Texas
      • Biletnikoff Award Semifinalist
      • Earl Campbell Tyler Rose Award Semifinalist
    • 622 receiving yards, 52 receptions, 12.0 yards per catch, 5 touchdowns
Miami (2023)
  • Xavier Restrepo
    • 1,092 receiving yards, 85 receptions, 12.8 yards per catch, 6 touchdowns
      • All-ACC First Team
    • 864 receiving yards, 57 receptions, 15.2 yards per catch, 8 touchdowns
      • Third-Team All-ACC
Miami (2024)
  • Xavier Restrepo
    • 1,127 receiving yards, 69 receptions, 16.3 yards per catch, 11 touchdowns
      • All-America First Team
      • All-ACC First Team
    • 752 receiving yards, 53 receptions, 14.2 yards per catch, 8 touchdowns
The notion that there is no experience or production in the receiver and TE rooms is a myth. Miami has several players who have seen significant snaps and quality produced at the college level. Just based off the data, it is safe to say at least one of the receivers for Miami will surpass the 1,000 yard mark in the 2025 season.

Miami current WR and TE room experience and production.

CJ Daniels RSR, 2,257 snaps, 2,439 receiving yards, 21 touchdowns
Keelan Marion 7th year SR, 1,517 snaps, 1,125 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns
Tony Johnson RSR, 1,491 snaps, 1,118 receiving yards, 13 touchdowns
JoJo Trader SO, 99 snaps, 91 receiving yards, 1 touchdown
Alex Bauman RSR, 1,553 snaps, 610 receiving yards, 13 touchdowns
Elija Lofton SO, 157 snaps, 150 receiving yards, 1 touchdown

Team Total:
  • 7,074 snaps, 5,533 receiving yards, 56 receiving touchdowns
The only team in the ACC that has more production or snaps played than Miami is Louisville. In addition to that every year in college football multiple true freshman receivers become All Conference players. Miami has all of the elements for a true freshman to have a breakout season.

Closing Thoughts
The data clearly shows that Dawson’s offenses outperform the national average significantly, and Miami’s current roster fits his system perfectly. I’m genuinely excited to watch this offense in action, and I fully expect Miami to be one of the most efficient, explosive teams in the country next year.
Click to expand...
 
Been preaching for dam near 2 decades now.. Air raid is plug and play, easy offense. It was built with david types who were able to produce against the goliath.. The ideal situation is with system in place you can draw qb and then with QB in place you can draw the elite skill guys..

The system already makes the product on field an exciting brand of football, that bro style bros kids seem to even enjoy when they have been bored out of their minds for yearssss with whatever the **** we have been doing last few decades.

Its soo sad how long it took for us to realize you can still run ball wit having the foundation of cfb spread offense in the spread era makes more sense
 
skyman said:
Been preaching for dam near 2 decades now.. Air raid is plug and play, easy offense. It was built with david types who were able to produce against the goliath.. The ideal situation is with system in place you can draw qb and then with QB in place you can draw the elite skill guys..

The system already makes the product on field an exciting brand of football, that bro style bros kids seem to even enjoy when they have been bored out of their minds for yearssss with whatever the **** we have been doing last few decades.

Its soo sad how long it took for us to realize you can still run ball wit having the foundation of cfb spread offense in the spread era makes more sense
Click to expand...
Totally agree, this has always been the type of offense needed in Miami with the access to the type of athletes in South Florida. I do believe that after this season, the world will know that it’s the system and recruiting should explode.
 
Need a QB to pull the trigger, the OL to give him time, and receivers who catch the ball. Having a running game helps. I'd love to see a breakdown of how many drives were killed by the drops by UGA receivers last year.
 
Restrepo can still hold his head high because he is an all timer here not just on production but the way he carried himself and maximized what is really a pretty average athletic make up. A lot of college stars are just that...college stars. And thats fine. But its even more of a reason that most of these kids need to take advantage of the education they are getting. 99% wont go pro or make enough in their short careers to live off.

I think Martinez still latches on somewhere.
 
Advertisement
skyman said:
Been preaching for dam near 2 decades now.. Air raid is plug and play, easy offense. It was built with david types who were able to produce against the goliath..
Click to expand...
Correct.

And think about it.

Miami has always has good skill players. Running backs and wide receivers have almost never been an issue here. It's trench play and quarterback that have caused issues.
 
Wish we could have landed Pena or Fields. Need that next step in talent to produce against great secondaries.
 
#1 offense really does show what an elite OL means.

We lost all our pass catches who seemingly are absolute JAGs lol Cam was such an incredible talent.

I won’t downplay what Arroyo meant he is going to be a long time player in the NFL if he can stay healthy.
 
The U is back to work said:
#1 offense really does show what an elite OL means.

We lost all our pass catches who seemingly are absolute JAGs lol Cam was such an incredible talent.

I won’t downplay what Arroyo meant he is going to be a long time player in the NFL if he can stay healthy.
Click to expand...

I mean, Restrepo and George produced with Tyler Van Dyke at QB.

It's offensive line + Dawson's scheme + elite trigger man

Miami caliber skill players will eat in that equation.
 
Advertisement
While the OP can sound click baity, it does bring up some interesting topics.

1. There is a difference between NFL jags and college jags. Restrepo would have started for 95% of college teams last year. He's another example of just a really good college player who's traits doesn't necessarily translate to the league (maybe, time will tell)

2. Having a system is great but having great players in it is even better. How good would this offense have been if Jeremiah Smith replaced JG?

3. The formula appears to be set, big time transfer QB + OL development and the floor of the offense is very high.

4. Arroyo is a true NFL guy and Horton may follow suit so that could be half of the top 4 pass catchers.
 
According to ChatGPT:

Why Cristobal’s “QB + OL + JAGs” Formula Works in College Football

1. Quarterback as a Force Multiplier
  • In the college game, a top quarterback can elevate average receivers in a way that’s less true in the NFL.
  • With Cam Ward, Miami had a QB who could throw receivers open with anticipation and extend plays when protection broke down.
  • In Dawson’s Air Raid system, Ward was constantly working against favorable spacing — meaning Miami’s WRs didn’t need NFL-level separation skills.
  • One elite QB in this setup is worth more than three elite WRs, especially since college defenses can’t disguise coverage like the pros.

2. Offensive Line Neutralizes Variance
  • Cristobal is an OL coach at heart, and Miami’s trench play reflected it.
  • A dominant OL provided:
    • Time → Ward had extra beats for Air Raid route concepts to develop.
    • Balance → Even “average” backs looked explosive behind big holes.
    • Consistency → Fewer sacks, fewer negative plays, and long, efficient drives.
  • This allowed Miami to dictate the game flow, no matter what the defense threw at them.
3. Skill Positions Are Plug-and-Play in College
  • WR and RB talent pools run deep — Miami may not have had draftable stars, but they had plenty of 4-star athletes.
  • Dawson’s Air Raid provided built-in mismatches through spacing, option routes, and quick reads. Receivers didn’t need to dominate man-to-man; the system created the openings.
  • Meanwhile, a top-5 rushing attack lightened the box and punished defenses for playing coverage. This meant even “JAG” backs could churn out yards.
4. Roster-Building Economics in the NIL Era
  • It’s far more efficient to pay for one elite QB and five NFL-caliber OLs than to assemble a room full of NFL WRs and RBs.
  • Cristobal concentrated Miami’s NIL firepower where it produces the highest marginal return.
  • In Dawson’s Air Raid, the scheme elevates the supporting cast — so the WRs/RBs only need to be competent and durable.
5. Defenses Can’t Cover Everything
  • College defenses have limited depth and struggle against:
    • Elite QB play in a spacing system like Dawson’s.
    • Physically dominant OLs that generate both clean pockets and rushing creases.
  • Miami’s balance was devastating: if defenses loaded the box to stop the run, Ward shredded them through the air; if they dropped into coverage, the run game gashed them.

✅ In Short
Cristobal’s model works because the QB + OL combo are force multipliers. Dawson’s Air Raid passing game schemed receivers open, while the top-5 run game punished defenses for adjusting. Together, they expanded time and space so that Miami’s “average” skill players looked more than good enough.

In college football — where depth is thin, defensive complexity is lower, and NIL forces resource prioritization — that’s often all you need to field a top offense.
 
Back
Top