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S&P Miami -12 GT Miami -14 Wake (lower on wake than most, not higher on Miami) UNC -3 @ Miami PSU -1 Miami on a neutral

The only reason I hesitate about option 2 is our covid situation. We can’t be down that many OL and DL and expect to win out. And this is a real life issue, not a hypothetical. We almost didn’t play yesterday. We should get by GT even with a depleted roster, but we need our dudes back for...

Point is, when you look at the math/probabilities, @Ethnicsands is correct: guaranteed 2-1 is the correct answer, and it’s obvious. That said, gimme option 2 and let’s ride. Maybe Howell will get Covid.

ESPN FPI doesn’t give a means to calculate point spread, but has UNC at 11.0 (24), Miami 10.2 (27), Wake 7.3 (31), GT -5.3 (91). FPI gives us an 18.3% chance of winning out. FWIW, every model has UNC ranked higher than us (although it’s close).

Per Action Network... Miami -16.5 Gt Miami -9.5 Wake Miami PICK UNC Edit: the -16.5 is accurate, but the power ratings are only updated through 11/8

Per Jeff Sagarin’s numbers, updated this morning, and giving 2 points for HFA (it’s down from the normal 3 this year cause there is no crowds... in fact, 2 might be too high), we will be: ~21 point favorites over GT ~Pick ‘em at Wake ~Pick ‘em vs UNC

You should post more. You have the best avatar on the boards.

I am taking option 2, but can I get hypothetical scores/recaps for option 1? Do we lose to Wake on a walk-off 55 yard FG, but blow out UNC by 35? If so, my answer would probably change.