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My Year 2 hypothesis involved coaches at marquee programs. If you're a coach at a marquee program and don't have a significant turnaround or have the program humming by year 2, then the chances are you'll never get that marquee program where it belongs.

Yessir. Unfortunately, my Year 2 hypothesis has only continued to solidify itself over the years since then.

I'm always optimistic about everything. But Manure left deep scars last year with the cataclysmic nature of his failure as a leader.

I started that Year 2 analysis about 12 years ago. It still holds up today. The truly top HCs almost always make a big move in year 2.