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Closing in our favor. Dropped from -14.5 to -14, great sign to see the late money move the line to a key number in our favor.

Alright here’s a gambling lesson. This is a snippet of the screen for NFL spreads and the row above the one highlighted in red is the Dolphins/49ers game. See how every casino has SF -9 or -9.5? Pinnacle has it -49ers -8. Not just half a point off every other casino but a full point. This...

Middling a game is much easier with MLB where there is no spread than with football. There you can get arbitrage opportunities like, say, Dodgers -175 and Braves +182 or something and can’t lose if you can correctly anticipate the move and bet it very early. Much harder with football. As...

Possible, but it seems the opposite happened. Sharps manipulated the line down to Clemson -14 and bet it large. ML was -515 this morning and is now -586. Not good.

Clemson was as high as -600 on the ML and it’s now down to -532 (you have to wager $532 on Clemson to win to make $100). As others noted, the spread has dropped to -14 with even vig on both sides. Using a no vig calculator, you can see Vegas’ most current line gives us roughly a 20% chance to...

Early line move is in our favor. Still tons of time for this to zigzag. Usually when it’s a setup by sharps to move the line and then hammer the opposite side at a better price they bet the underdog early. So this one may very well reverse but so far so good.

It’s a rogue offshore line that assuredly has $300 limits or so. Bellagio should release the line around 2pm PST or so.

Yeah +660 or so. That’s what Miss St was yesterday as a 17.5 favorite over Ark St.

I’m not an expert, I just know before everyone gets shook we should wait to see what Bookmaker sets the line. If it’s 14.5, these early line setting small shops will immediately move their lines to match. Who knows, maybe it will be 17.5 in which case I’ll bet Miami to cover without hesitation.

It won’t be that low. Casinos would have Clemson -0.5 teasers on every parlay imaginable. I think we realistically see a 14.5 point spread or thereabouts once the limits are opened and the big casinos release their line.

We seemingly rehash this every week, but here goes again: 1. The consensus line will be released this afternoon around 4-5pm EST. 17.5 may be the line or it may be 14.5, but we don’t know now. 2. Casinos don’t set the lines to lure in equal action on both sides.